The Chicago Bears are 1-5 and are starting a rookie UDFA at quarterback for the first time on Sunday. Still, they are only three-point underdogs, signaling that this could be a good game. Are the Las Vegas Raiders that bad, or is there a reason to think the Chicago Bears can win this game?
5. D.J. Moore can still have success for the Chicago Bears
D.J. Moore was in the midst of the best year of his career with Justin Fields. Still, even with Tyson Bagent, there are reasons to assume that he will play well. The list of his quarterbacks with the Carolina Panthers includes Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, and P.J. Walker. Still, he put up multiple 1,000-yard seasons and was always viewed as the top pass catcher in the offense. He has been able to produce in these situations.
He also is in a good spot matchup-wise. He gets Jakorian Bennett, a third-round rookie who has had ups and downs this season. Across from Bennett is Marcus Peters, who is a shell of his old self. Teams cannot decide which player to attack more. Moore has had success against some good cornerbacks, but his best games have come against these lesser talented players.
Some of the big plays he made against Washington had nothing to do with who his quarterback was. Any quarterback could have hit him on some of the passes, and a lot of the time, he was getting work done after the catch. The Chicago Bears will feed D.J. Moore this week, and he may still have success. That may be enough points to win the game.
4. Josh Jacobs has been awful for the Las Vegas Raiders
The situation around Josh Jacobs with the Las Vegas Raiders is getting murky. This is likely his last year with the team, and he missed a lot of the offseason. When you add in that his interior offensive line has not been very good, you have a recipe for disaster. Jacobs is one of the worst running backs in the NFL.
Jacobs is sixth-worst in success rate and second in expected points lost when he touches the football. Every carry he gets is worth -0.22 points. A lot of this is his doing, as he ranks fourth worst in yards created as well.
On the flip side, the Chicago Bears' run defense has slowly gotten better in the past three weeks. They rank seventh in EPA allowed per rush in recent weeks. A lot of this comes down to Andrew Billings having an excellent, but also DeMarcus Walker, TJ Edwards, and Jack Sanborn playing their best football in recent weeks.
The Bears run defense is coming in slightly better than expected, and the Raiders' rushing attack has been poor. At the very least, we could see a game where the Raiders struggle to put the Bears away, and it stays close until late.
3. The Chicago Bears pass defense is improving
The Chicago Bears' pass defense is not showing the same statistical improvements as the run defense. However, there is a reason to believe that it will soon. The team just got back Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon last week. Both of them played well in their first game and will look to build off of that.
On one hand, it is a dangerous game because they face Davante Adams. However, on the flip side, they will get a backup quarterback, and it sounds like it may be Brian Hoyer. Hoyer will try to force the ball to Adams, but the Bears have to know the plan of attack here. Beyond that, the question is if Hoyer can work the ball to the other receivers to score enough to win the game.
One key injury note to watch for the Bears will be the status of Eddie Jackson. A turnover could change this game, and if they can get Jackson back, it would be just what they need. Still, even without Jackson, this is as close to full strength as we have seen this secondary, and they are in a much easier matchup than in recent weeks. They should show up.
2. The Las Vegas Raiders do not know what Tyson Bagent can bring
On the one hand, Chicago Bears fans fear what Tyson Bagent will bring. He has so many questions, and he turned the ball over twice in two-breaking ways against the Minnesota Vikings. However, there is a reason to be confident in him as well.
First, it is different coming in off of the bench compared to starting the game. Tyson Bagent will get all of the repetitions, and the game plan will be for him and not Justin Fields. He will come into the game much more prepared. Better than that, the Raiders really cannot prepare. What are they going to do, break down his college tape? From Shepherd? That may help, but it will not tell them what blitzes get him off of his target and where to attack him in certain looks.
Teams need tape on a player before they can craft a game plan around him. The offense is going to be different with Bagent compared to Justin Fields, so any little nuances found in tape study or analytics may not apply this week.
Given that Bagent is a rookie UDFA, the Raiders will likely come out with some vanilla looks, but they will look to pressure him and let him make mistakes. The Bears know what the Raiders will do against an unknown quarterback, but the Raiders do not know what Bagent can bring. This is a chance to surprise them with a week to prepare.
1. Are the Chicago Bears in a good schedule spot against the Las Vegas Raiders?
The Las Vegas Raiders will have a backup quarterback of their own, so it is not like they will look ahead of this game. However, when you break down their schedule, this is definitely a soft spot, and it will be interesting to see if Josh McDaniels can motivate his team this week. Their last two weeks were big games.
They beat the Green Bay Packers, and Davante Adams got revenge on his old team. It was a Monday Night Football game, too. Then, they beat the New England Patriots and Josh McDaniels got revenge on his old team. It was the Sunday afternoon game with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo, and there were more players on the Raiders who were former Patriots, including both Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer.
So, coming off of two emotional highs, the team has to get excited for a road game in Chicago. For a West Coast team, they will be playing at 10 AM, and the conditions will be a lot colder than the Las Vegas heat. Are they ready for this? Looking ahead, they have a huge game against the Lions on primetime next week. As we noted, without tape on Tyson Bagent, do the Raiders get a jump start on the Lions and hope that the vanilla game plan works? Do the Raiders sleep through this game and hope the Bears give it up? At the least, the Bears should keep this close, regardless of quarterback.