The Chicago Bears signed Yannick Ngakoue in a decision that makes plenty of sense on the surface. So, now that he is on the team, what are the important factors for fans to know?
5. Chicago Bears will line up Yannick Ngakoue against left tackles
If you are going to be looking for Yannick Ngakoue it should not be too hard. If he is on the field, he will be lined up against the left tackle. Ngakoue has 5,497 snaps in his career. Of those, 4,165 snaps came against the left tackle. That is over 76% of the time that he is on the field. So, he will take on the right tackle here, and there, and he may even slide inside for a snap or two, but he is almost primarily on one side of the field.
This is good to know when thinking of where the rest of the group will line up. It had been assumed that DeMarcus Walker would line up on that side, but he has played both sides in his career. He also will slide inside at times. Rasheem Green has also played both sides, but last season, he spent the majority of his snaps against right tackles.
Trevis Gipson spent almost all of his snaps against right tackles as well and was much better on that side. Dominique Robinson was almost exclusively lining up against left tackles, so he will be behind Ngakoue.
As of now, the way to look at the rotation is that Gipson and Green will primarily stay on their side while Ngakoue and Robinson will stay on theirs. Then, Walker will play up and down, including inside. Green will lead the split but will be closer to 60-40, and Ngakoue will probably be closer to 80-20 over Robinson.
4. How Yannick Ngakoue compares to similar salaries
The Chicago Bears signed Yannick Ngakoue to a $10.5M deal, and most of it sounds to be guaranteed. So, how does that stack up against some other edge rushers? Sam Hubbard is making an average of $10M per year, Carl Lawson is at $9M, and Za'Darius Smith is at $11.7M. They are the three closest to Ngakoue in salary. Below is how the four compare to each other. We just used stats since 2019 so that the sample is more recent. For Carl Lawson, we took stats since 2018 because he missed all of the 2021 season.
Name | Tackles | Sacks | QB Hits | TFL | FF | Passes defended | Approximate Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sam Hubbard | 260 | 24.5 | 63 | 38 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
Carl Lawson | 98 | 18.5 | 86 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
Yannick Ngakoue | 121 | 35.5 | 65 | 36 | 11 | 10 | 25 |
Za'Darius Smith | 152 | 36 | 84 | 44 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
However you break it down, Ngakoue can stack up this peers. He is a bit ligher on the tackles, but more than Lawson. He is right behind Smith in sacks. The quarterbacks hits is a bit light, but he is right next to Hubbard in both hits, and tackles for loss.
Then, there are the forced fumbles, which is where Ngakoue soars above the rest. His lack of tackles, and questionable run defense can show up when you see his approximate value, but still, he is right there in the mix.
You could make the case the Hubbard brings more down-to-down production to the table, but Ngakoue does bring the added forced fumbles that he does not. Still, Hubbard is at $10M, and signed his deal a few years ago, so with the rising cap it is only right to have Ngakoue making just a little bit more than that.
3. Is Yannick Ngakoue consistent enough?
There is no denying the production of Yannick Ngakoue, as he averages over nine sacks per season. However, there is a question about how he plays down-in and down-out and whether he just gets hot when he thinks he has a chance at a sack.
Last season Ngakoue ranked 12th amongst 88 qualified edge rushers in sacks. However, he ranked 41st in pressures and 78th in win rate. With a 7.1% win rate, he was actually behind Trevis Gipson, at 8.8%, ranking 63rd, and Rasheem Green, who ranked 71st last season. Still, Ngakoue was able to get home more on fewer wins than those rushers. The question is whether this is sustainable.
Of the top 20 rushers last season, Ngakoue had the worst pass-rush win rate. The only player to have a higher productivity per snap rating and win less than Ngakoue was Michael Hoecht. For comparison, his 7.1% win rate falls way behind guys like Myles Garrett at 22.5%, Nick Bosa at 19.9%, and Micah Parsons at 19.3%. He is not supposed to be near them, but Za'Darius Smith is 19.2%, Carl Lawson is 14.2%, and even Hubbard is 9.8%.
The thing is that while this does not feel sustainable, it has been. He ranked 55th in win rate last year but was 15th in pressures. The year before, he was 46th in win rate but 28th in sacks. He was 48th in win rate and 29th in sacks the year prior.
2. Yannick Ngakoue struggles against the run
Yannick Ngakoue has 5,497 snaps, and only 1,857 are against the run. He has 395 pressures compared to 145 run stops. That is 34% of the snaps total against the run and 2.8 pressures per run stop. For comparison, DeMarcus Walker played 40% of his career snaps against the run and has just 1.5 pressures per run stop. Green has 38% of his snaps against the run and 1.6 pressures per run stop.
Yes, it means Ngakoue is a better pass rusher, but it also means that these two will be playing the run-downs while Ngakoue will be on the sidelines. Ngakoue is a poor run defender, however you want to stack it up. Last year was one of his worst efforts against the run, and 2021 probably was the worst that Ngakoue has played against the run.
In 2022, he ranked 50th out of 54 qualified edge rushers, and the year before he ranked 63 out of 63 in that area. Needless to say, this is not where the team will be asking him to his damage.
The Chicago Bears made sure to improve their run defense, and it left them needing a pass rush. So, it will take mixing and matching, but if they can get the right pass rush from Ngakoue, they can get the run defense in other places.
1. Yannick Ngakoue has strong historical stats
Yannick Ngakoue is 27 years old. For his career, he has 65 sacks and 21 forced fumbles. Those are pretty good rates. Since 2019, Ngakoue ranks ninth in forced fumbles with 11. Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Chandler Jones, Hasson Reddick, Shaq Barrett, Marlin Humphrey, and Demarcus Lawrence are the names with him.
For his career, he ranks 10th all-time in forced fumbles before turning 28 years old. Dwight Freeny had 31, but TJ Watt is the only active player with a better-forced fumble rate at this age.
As for sacks, Ngakoue ranked 16th all-time in sacks before turning 28 years old. Some names around him include DeMarcus Ware, Chandler Jones, Mario Williams, and Jared Allen. You can say anything about selling out for sacks, taking a play or two off, and struggling against the run. Not many players can get the quarterback on the ground like him, and even fewer can knock it out of the quarterback's hands like him. That is something the Chicago Bears need.