With the Chicago Bears debating a change at the quarterback position, from Justin Fields to Caleb Williams, there has been a flaw in the logic being used by those in favor of a change.
Inconsistency has plagued Fields' first three seasons in the NFL with the Bears. On one hand, yes, if you want to use as evidence every single play Fields was a part of, this is a reasonable conclusion. However, everyone should know that when judging yay or nay to keep a young quarterback, the true benchmark needs to be what is his updated skill set at the end of his last season. To make the best possible decision, it is essential to discern whether he has grown enough beyond his past mistakes and refined his best skills enough that it all translates into whether a specific quarterback can be projected to be a successful NFL QB.
Based on Fields' performances in the last part of the season, it is reasonable to assume this is what happened during the weeks he had off from injury. This intelligent, dedicated to his craft, young quarterback used time off due to injury to reflect upon his game. All appearances are that he made the mental adjustment to stop doing the things that were not working and focus on what he needed to do to become the best version of himself.
The first six games he played once he came back from a thumb injury provided more than enough evidence that for the most part, he put his old self-defeating ways behind him. These significant changes more than justify the Bears keeping Fields.
Here are the changes he made starting with his first game back from injury against the Lions. Fields started to, consistently, complete passes even when he had open running lanes to take off in. He also did a professional job of going through his progressions and completing on-schedule pass plays. These completions included a number of dimes using good footwork in the pocket. One in particular that stands out is the TD pass to DJ Moore in the left corner of the endzone with snow falling at a crisp pace.
Very significantly, post-injury, Fields kept his eyes up, focusing on pass targets over pass rushers. He also used his eyes to fake out defenders from his intended target. He also did not waste layup pass plays when they were available.
2. The argument for Caleb Williams
Let's start off with these stats, Caleb Williams fumbled 33 times during his 31 starts. He had 6 fumbles in 2022 then 16 fumbles during 2023. Against Notre Dame last season, Caleb had 6 sacks and 3 interceptions. In 2022, Caleb played, brilliantly, leading to the label of next generational QB talent.
Then we fast forward to 2023 where his play regressed in the last half of the season, starting with the 48-20 loss against Notre Dame. Williams' regression was most notable in his turnovers. The way he holds the ball away from his body especially when he is running around in off-schedule mode is just asking for a defender to knock the ball out of his hands.
Former Jets scout, Daniel Kelly, in his scouting report, gives a pretty big thumbs down to Williams while also acknowledging his considerable skill set. Kelly makes quite a cogent point about Caleb with a quote from his old boss Bill Parcells, "If a player is not getting better, he is getting worse." Hard to argue with this insight. What I believe Bill Parcells is alluding to is that if players form bad habits, then they need to take time to unlearn them and there is no guarantee that they will unlearn these bad habits. This begs the question of just how coachable is Williams. Given his penchant for abandoning the play call to improvise is some pretty solid evidence of potential coachability issues with this young QB.
This quote also brings to the surface a big question the Bears organization needs to figure out when choosing between Justin Fields or Caleb Williams.
In the second half of 2023, Fields got a lot better in the areas he needed to improve on against NFL competition. Conversely, Williams' play regressed against college competition. This leads me to conclude that those who fell in love with Caleb Williams in 2022 are unwilling to apply this big-picture Bill Parcells perspective.
3. The differences in mechanics
Digging further into this, the irony is thick that the Caleb Williams-over-Justin Fields' camp, is very committed to overlooking Williams' very poor second-half play in 2023 but emphasizing his moments of 2022 brilliance. On the other hand, the Williams' camp insists on focusing on the many mistakes Fields made in 2021, 2022, and the early part of the 2023 season. It is poor judgment in the extreme to ignore the substantial progress Fields made in the latter part of 2023 while also ignoring the regression of Caleb Williams in 2023.
To quote Chris Simms when Justin Fields was a prospect, "His footwork is all over the place." Knowing how hard it is for QBs to correct their footwork flaws once they come to the NFL is why I was against the Bears drafting Fields. Yet, here we are three years later and Fields accomplished a rare and difficult task. He made genuine progress in fixing his footwork as well as his upper body mechanics. Fields' footwork still needs more fixing but it, certainly, appears a case can be made his footwork overall is much better than Caleb's footwork. The reasoning here is that operating outside of the pocket Justin Fields is an accurate long ball thrower. If you add this to his improved footwork in the pocket, his overall footwork is better than Caleb Williams' footwork. So this means replacing Justin with Caleb would be a step backward for the Bears in the very important matter of quarterback mechanics.
On top of this, Williams played in a simplified offense that used one-read concepts. Whereas in the second half of 2023, Fields made considerable growth in going through his progressions, making good decisions then delivering accurate throws.
To be fair and inclusive in our QB comparison, here is another angle on Fields' less-than-perfect mechanics. In the pocket, Fields has this annoying habit of taking a short bounce before he makes a throw or taking a step backward before he takes a step forward when making a pass.
Another aspect of Fields' accuracy is when he is making short throws. In these plays, he appears to lose full focus on placing the football to maximize yards after catch.
4. What happens if the Bears keep Justin Fields?
The intention of this article is to possibly change some minds about the Bears keeping Justin Fields.
In the 2024 NFL Draft, I want the Bears to not only keep Fields but make the historical trade-down that Peter King suggested.
From Washington, I want the Bears to get 3-technique, Da'Ron Payne. Given that Washington's minority owner Magic Johnson very much wants to get Williams, I suspect including Payne in a trade is doable.
Then, from Atlanta, tight end Kyle Pitts is the name that should be circled. This would allow the Bears to give Shane Waldron a dynamic double-tight-end set. Waldron has a play where two tight ends line up next to each other, standing behind the line of scrimmage.
A trade with Atlanta sets up the Bears to have the convenience of drafting both 8th and 9th. With these two picks, the Bears should draft a pass rusher and left tackle. My top two edge rushers are Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu. Verse combines brute strength with speed. Latu is not the fastest pass rusher but has lightning-quick hands and a ferocious focus on getting to the quarterback.
Then there is the matter of if you want to have a great offense, having a great offensive line will go a long way to achieving that goal. At left tackle, the Bears will have a shot to draft either Olu Fashanu or Amarius Mims. Mims is expected by some draft experts to blow up the combine with eye-opening measurables for a big strong fast left tackle pushing him into a top-ten pick.
In terms of the Bears drafting a left tackle with a top-ten pick, Caleb Williams' fans should note that one of his weaknesses is seeing blindside pressure. Braxton Jones' biggest weakness is pass protecting against the most talented pass rushers. Drafting a left tackle with a top-ten pick and moving Braxton over to left guard should create a formidable pass-protecting offensive line for the Bears.
Doing all this also means trading Nate Davis.
So how about this trade, the Bears give Miami one or two second-round picks, Nate Davis and maybe Kyler Gordon. The Bears get back the 21st pick in the draft and Jalen Ramsey. The Miami cornerback had a knee injury in training camp but came back to play in their eighth game of the season and played well throughout the season.
If the Bears add a talented 3-technique and a top-ten draft-pick pass rusher as well as having Jaylon Johnson and Jalen Ramsey as their cornerbacks, their defense could get pretty scary. Tyrique Stevenson could be shifted over to nickelback and he could prove to be a better nickel than Kyler Gordon given he is faster than Gordon.
What I foresee if the Bears keep Fields and are smart in how they add to their roster is definitely on a parallel track to what Jalen Hurts has had with a loaded roster in Philadelphia. Is it a stretch to imagine the Bears could do the same by keeping Justin and doing a great job of building up their roster? Maybe yes, maybe no, let's hope Ryan Poles gives Bears fans a shot to find this out.