Handicapping NFL Week 2: Picks of the Week


In the immortal words of Smooth Jimmy Apollo, “Well, when you’re right 52% of the time, you’re wrong 48% of the time.” (Simpson, Season 3, Episode “Lisa the Greek”)  In one of the best Simpson episodes ever, Homer’s gambling on football epitomizes the football gamblers’ struggles and successses (with Lisa’s help) on a week to week basis.  Whether it was getting his “Shoe-in” or “Lock” of the week from tv, or calling to hear advice about “Cin……Cin…..At……Ti….., Homer himself learned about parody in the NFL.

I ended up 2-3 last week, but went 2-1 in my main three picks, which I’m most concerned about.  The Bears would’ve covered the spread had they made their 2 point conversion attempt, so that’s a flip of a coin.  Cincinnati was blown out, which was a little suprising to me, but I still think they’re going to be a good team this season.  As I suspected, NY Giants took care of Carolina and as I said, “Feel good about it by 3rd quarter.”  By that time, they had a 15 point lead (trying to cover 6.5).  Jacksonville beat Denver in the 4th Quarter – that’s where you start to see travel having an impact – I’ll take hometeam 75% of the time in those circumstances.  Another suprising loss was the 49ers losing to Seattle.  I don’t feel so bad about that one, because about 50 people in my survival pool picked the 49ers as their “Lock of the week.”  (I safely took Carolina and Oakland to lose) I’m curious to see how they respond on Monday Night against the Superbowl Champs.  On to Week 2:

Texans (-3) at Washington

I think that alot of people are going to jump on the Houston bandwagon after their upset last week.  It is hard to pick a visiting team giving points, but here is why I’m going with the majority.  Washington saw what Arian Foster did to the Colts last week and they’re going to try to shut that down.  This will open up my main man, Andre Johnson for a big game.  Look for Houston to unveil the other half of the offense and pop Washington’s big head from their division upset last week.

Packers (-13) vs Buffalo

Big points don’t scare me when they are warranted.  Jackson will fill in adequately for Grant and the Packers continue to roll against this overly-matched team.  There is no way, parody or not, that Buffalo walks into Lambeau on their home opener and beats them.  I’ll give the points.  (Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see an upset here, but just not happening)

Vikings (-5.5) vs Miami

Now, I just told Boomer the other night that he likely won’t ever see me taking spreads that are between 4-6 and here it is, Week 2, and I’m doing it.  (With a North rival too, for crying out loud)  Yes, the Vikings looked weak last week, Favre looked old, and recievers were nowhere to be found.  This will be a different week.  Miami won’t be able to run the ball and will struggle on offense.  Favre will find other people to throw the ball to other than  Shiancoe, and the Vikings will win their home opener as well.

I think that I’ve shown that I don’t bet with heart, but rather my common sense.  I’d love to see the Vikings/Packers lose, but, I’m confident that they will not.

UPSET SPECIAL:

NY Giants (-5.5) @ Colts

Realistically, I think that any underdog can win this week with the exception of Buffalo.  I think the Giants go into this week trying to control the clock and exploit the Colts weak run defense.  With Bob Sanders out again, the Colts Defense takes a hit – and that is exactly what the Giants intend to give.  The best way to defense Peyton is to keep him on the sidelines.  The more the Giants do that, the closer the score will be.  I’ll take 5.5.

The Beloved:

Bears (+7.5) @ Dallas

I don’t think the Bears are going to win this one, but I think that they can keep it closer than originally anticipated.  As Boomer discussed on WGN this morning, their #1 Offense in yards need to hold onto the ball and that can translate into points.  If they don’t turn the ball over and if Dallas continues to struggle offensively, I feel good about the Bears getting 7.5.  Now obviously those are big “if’s”, but I’ll roll my dice with them again.

Last Week:   3 Picks:  2-1    Upset Special: 0-1     Bears Pick:  0-1

Season          3 Picks: 2-1    Upset Special: 0-1   Bears Pick: 0-1

Next Bears Game View full schedule »
Thursday, Aug 2828 Aug8:00at Cleveland BrownsBuy Tickets