Handicapping NFL Week 5: PICKS OF THE WEEK
By Bart
I’m trying to figure myself out. In my betting pool (start year with 3400 points, minimum 100 pt bet week, maximum=all-in, approximately 110 people, bet 1-3 teams week), I am in 1st place. But, when it comes to those confidence pools, I lost to my 10-year old last week. I think when you are so accustomed playing the spreads in football, it tends to warp how you see the regular outcome of a game. If anyone finds any research out there on such a topic, feel free to let me know.
Last week recap: The Chargers game was a no-brainer last week, it was my most confident pick of the week (41-10 over the Cardinals). There is something to those 8 point home favorite spreads (Indy started -8 this week vs KC). Speaking of Indy, all I have to say about that is “What the heck?” But their Defense is a little shaky, as it always is without Bob Sanders. Even though I really like them this week against KC, I’m nervous about their safety play and am concerned that KC could get a cheesy TD at the end to cover. Houston covered as predicted, even without Andre Johnson. As I wrote earlier, Oakland is an improved team, so be careful in your assumptions. However, 3 points was to much to pass up on for this particular week. I am a believer in Houston this year. How about that Baltimore game? I was mad when they decided to go for it on 4th and 2. I thought the game was over. But that was a fantastic finish! I don’t think I need to say anything about the Bears pick. If you look at my record, I think why you see I tend to stay away from them altogether. When I pick them to lose, they win and vice versa.
On to Week 5:
WEEK 5 PICKS:
Packers -2.5 @ Washington – Seriously? I’m not quite sure what is up with this one, seems a little strange, unless it is totally based on last week. First of all, the Lions are the best winless team in the league. If you’ve paid any attention to them for the first four weeks, they are in every game. So the fact that the Packers only beat them by 2 is not terribly suprising. Washington went all-in last week and won. It was a “Let’s win this for Donovan rah rah game.” They came out fast and smacked Philly in the mouth. Michael Vick went down and it was over from there. (Isn’t that a crazy statement?) Then, I guess if you consider the Bears beat the Packers two weeks ago, Vegas may be a little gunshy with them right now. You don’t need to be. Washington was beat by 2 touchdowns by Sam Bradford, the rookie two weeks ago. Let me introduce you to Aaron Rodgers and the team, like the Bears, who don’t believe in running the ball. Get all over this one. Then, even if the Packers lose, you’ll still be happy.
Falcons -3 @ Browns – Seriously? The Browns are ranked 24th against the Pass. I’m happy about that for several reasons. First of all, I have Matt Ryan as my QB in fantasy. Second of all, covering 3 points will be very easy to do. The game last week was close for the Falcons because as I’ve said before, San Fran is not as bad as their record indicates and they too were pushing all-in. Cleveland beat their Division Rival and are ripe for an emotional let down….make that a beat-down.
Saints -7 @ Cardinals -I am struggling between the Saints and the Colts. The Saints make me a little nervous because their offense hasn’t clicked without Reggie Bush. The Colts make me nervous without Bob Sanders. The scale is tipping in favor of the Saints because of their opportunistic Defense going against a rookie QB in Arizona. You thought the Bears had issues with their QBs – welcome to Arizona. They cut Leinart, play Anderson, and now bench him. How long do you think it will be before Fitzgerald starts clamoring to be traded? I’ll set the over/under at about week 8.
Upset Special of the Week:
Titans (+7) @ Dallas – You would think that with two weeks to prep and coming off of a bye, that Dallas will be ready to go and will have fixed their offensive woes. Well, I’m kinda hoping that they do with Tony Romo on my fantasy bench waiting for a big game. However, Tennessee is good enough to keep this close and maybe even send Dallas into a tailspin by beating them at home after a bye. I’ll take 7 and roll the dice on this one.
THE BELOVED:
Bears +1 @ Carolina – Vegas doesn’t have much love for Todd Collins or the Bears after that debacle last week and that is exactly why I’m taking them this week. The Bears Defense will do what it needs to do this week to give Jay an extra week of rest. Everyone is down on Collins this week because of what happened during the Giants game, but let me ask you this, did Jay look much better? Collins didn’t look too bad in the Preseason, and with a whole week of reps, you can look for a steady QB who will not make mistakes and let his Defense set him up for a regular dose of field goals and maybe 1 TD run and 1 TD pass. Bears Dominant Defense will bring us to 4-1 and help my sub-500 Bears pick record.
Last Week: 3 Picks: 2 -1 Upset Special: 1-0 Bears Pick: 0-1
Season: 3 Picks: 7-4-1 Upset Special: 2-2 Bears Pick: 1-3