Handicapping Superbowl: Last Pick of the Year


SEASON SUMMARY, BY THE NUMBERS

Season:

3 Picks: 30-16-2

Upset Special: 9-7

 Bears Pick: 6-8-1

Playoffs: 6-4 (Last week 1-1)

About 2 Weeks Ago:  I’ll be real honest with you, it feels like eons ago.  I had the privilege of joining BearGogglesOn Captain at the game and despite the outcome, it was still a super exciting place to be.  The Bears could’ve beat the Packers, but didn’t.  The Packers have a better team and you have to give them a lot of credit for overcoming the injuries that they had this year. Any team can win on any Sunday and the Bears could’ve won last week.  I felt comfortable getting 3.5 obviously, the Bears just couldn’t put it in on that last drive.  I lost sleep over that last set of downs.  If you have 3rd and 2, don’t run a sideways play gosh dangit!  Anyway, I’m done rehashing.  Two weeks ago, sucked.  I have no interest in the Superbowl and to be honest, I don’t really even have much of a “bettor’s interest.”  I’ve done no research, explored no stats, read no articles.  So, if you are reading this post to get an idea of where you should lay your paycheck this week, here’s what I’ll tell you, don’t put a lot of stock in my pick….this week.  Let’s remember, this is a Bears Blog and despite my leanings toward the seedier side of football, the football season ended 2 weeks ago for me.  It’s different when the Bears are out of the playoffs all together, but ending the way it did, I’ll be watching the Superbowl for funny commercials more than I’ll be watching the game.  Do I want the Packers to lose?  Of course, I do, but I still find no solace in that, because they beat us.  Do I think the Packers will lose? 

Packers -2.5 vs Pittsburgh – Six, 6-figure wagers came in on the bluest of Mondays.  The Packers started as 1 point underdogs.  Those six wagers all went the Packers way forcing the line up to 2.5 for all of the annual Superbowl bettors to toil over for the next 13 days.  The line has not moved since then.  My guess is that it will go up to 3 by game time.  Remember what I said throughout the season, that hook under and over the biggies (3, 7, 10) typically suck people one way.  Therefore, it is likely a lot of fence sitters will take the favorite since it is only 2.5 which will then drive the line to 3.  What am I going to do?  I’m going to take the Packers and the Under (44.5). 

(Note:  I just went to look at the spread and sure enough – it already moved to 3.  I don’t feel like erasing what I wrote earlier, plus it just shows that I knew it was going to happen :) )

Well, my friends, it has been an enjoyable season.  Hopefully, you took some of my advice and made yourselves a little bit of extra cash this season.  We’ll see you next year, you can bet on it!

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