There’s a phenomena in statistics called Regression to the Mean. Here’s the Wikipedia definition:
Regression toward the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on a second measurement…
In terms of the Bears draft, I’ll apply it this way – when the Bears hit two home runs with their first two picks in Gabe Carimi and Stephen Paea – you knew they would come back the norm with their final three picks.
The 2011 draft will be deemed a success or failure largely on the first two selections, not necessarily the total of all the picks. Carimi and Paea fill their two biggest needs with two top level prospects. Other areas that needed to be addressed – like linebacker, cornerback and more help on the offensive line – went largely ignored.
Curious selections of safety Chris Conte and Idaho quarterback Nathan Enderle with consecutive picks in the 3rd and 5th rounds certainly raised questions among most fans given clear needs in other areas.
Jerry Angelo has found a few diamonds in the rough in the mid-to-later rounds, so you never know what he may have found with Conte, Enderle and 6th round pick JT Thomas.
In my view, I’ll grade the Bears with a B- grade. They get an A for Rounds 1 and 2 and C-‘s for Rounds 3, 5 and 6.
Don’t just click the poll with a letter grade. Speak your peace in the Comments below. Trust me, you’ll feel better if you do.