Handicapping NFL Week 1: Picks of the Week
By Bart
Welcome back my football friends! Whether you are a casual fan, a fantasy player, or enjoy making friendly food wagers with mayors from different cities, this is the site and post for you. In case you didn’t read my posts last year, my name is Bart and I’ll be helping you make some of your weekly picks. This isn’t your typical expert advice, however. This will help you look at games from a different perspective – utilizing the NFL spreads to find a couple of winners every week to help stock your refrigerator. In case you didn’t keep up last year, you can check out my numbers below. If you think I’m making it up, go back in time and read all of the posts throughout last season and you’ll see these numbers are legit. With numbers like these again this year, all of us can be happy people.
Season:
3 Picks: 30-16-2
Upset Special: 9-7
Bears Pick: 6-8-1
As you can see, if you took all of my picks last year, you were at a .59210526 winning percentage – which we’ll just simplify and say 59%. In schools, you would have an “F” and not be too happy. In the gambling world, you’d be smiling as you head for the bank (or casino, or tavern, or airport). Alright, enough of living in the past, it’s time to go get some fresh cash:
PICKS OF THE WEEK:
KC (-5.5 ) vs. Buffalo – In case you weren’t already aware, the Chiefs are exceptionally tough at Arrowhead. Why this line has dropped since coming out on Monday, I’m not so sure. It could be because the Bills have won 3/4 of their last match-ups. It could be that people are nervous that Cassell has some lingering rib effect from the 4th Pre-season game. Regardless, when you have a great run game against the league’s worst rush defense, I’ll give 5.5. In case you haven’t noticed, Buffalo is not exactly an offensive juggernaut either.
Chargers (-9) vs Minnesota – it’s tough giving 9 points to a team that has Adrian Peterson because he can be a game changer and keep a game close. However, the Viqueens have to travel to San Diego and will not be in sync yet offensively with new QB Donovan McNabb. Their secondary is suspect and Philip Rivers is likely licking his chops this week.
(This will be a pattern to watch throughout season: the number 9 spread. This is Vegas trying to even out the bets. If they make the spread 10, too much money will go towards Minnesota because double digits scare away “favorite” bettors. This is also true of 6. You’ll see throughout the season each number spread is geared towards getting bettors to split their bets so Vegas can simply walk away with the juice. The more you know this, the less juice you’ll be paying).
New England (-6.5) @ Miami – I’m going to be real honest. I typically don’t take something like this. It is a Division game (which tend to be closer games), New England is on the road, and I think everyone is probably picking New England. However, one reason I like New England is because they simply don’t stop. If they are beating you by 21 – they’ll make it 28. They have an arrogance about them like a college team pushing to get to a bowl game or make a name for themselves in the BCS standings. They not only like to send a message to the team they are playing, but also to the team they’re playing next week and so on and so forth.
UPSET SPECIAL:
Lions (+1) @ Tampa – This one is a tough one, but I’m going to give the lowly Lions a chance. I may be a little biased because I have Stafford as my QB and Pettigrew as my TE in fantasy, but I do feel the Lions are going to give the Bucs a game. I think we’re finally going to see what the Lions can do offensively when Stafford is not hurt. This being a coin flip, I don’t think it is too hard to pick it as a true upset, but I’ll take it anyway.
THE BELOVED:
Atlanta (-1) vs Bears – The hardest thing to do as a Bears fan is try to gamble or predict Bears games. I think you can notice from my last year’s picks, this is where I did my worst (6-8-1). The first three Bears games are tough (Atlanta, NO, GB) and as a fan, I’ll be fine with a 1-2 start. Yes, of course I’d prefer 3-0 and have them dominate everyone, including the Packers, but I’m not so sure they can do that. That said, this is one that I think is going to get away from the Bears. Atlanta has a very good 2-attack Offense. Their Defense is solid as well. The Bears can pull this out if they can get good pressure from their front four and if Cutler is patient and takes what Atlanta gives him. Martz also has to mix things up to keep Atlanta off balance. Those are all a big couple of “ifs.” I’m looking forward to a great game, but my gambling head trumped by blue and orange heart on this one.
BEARS!