Handicapping NFL Week 5: DAY OF THE DOG


Well, sadly, I once again have to apologize for not posting for Week 4.  Unlike Week 2 where I would’ve done bad, last week I did fairly well so I’m kicking myself for not sharing with you all.  There was alot of activity in Bart’s household last weekend and finding computer time became a difficult task.  Well, enough of the commentary – let’s get down to some football and to what I am deeming, “DAY OF THE DOG.”  A quick summary before Week 5:

Summary from 2 Weeks Ago:  I had a better time in the 3 pick 2 weeks ago then I did with the Beloved and the Upset Special.  It seems like eons ago, but I told you that Baltimore was going to come back from their strange loss to Tennessee and pound the Rams at home.  That they did – 37-7.  I predicted Carolina’s first win of the season against Jacksonville, and they covered and eeked out a 16-10 win.  Lastly, I told everyone that the Lions would win their first game in the Metrodome in over a decade, and that they did.  However, they only won by a field goal – so that game was a push since the Lions were favored by 3.  I walked away with a loss in the Upset Special because the Falcons struggled against the Bucs in Tampa.  I’m going to give Atlanta another chance this week, because I really like them, but if they let me down again…..Lastly, the Bears came out and laid an egg against Green Bay. The Bears should’ve at least been able to cover at home, but I think we all remember what went wrong with them that week.  Alright, enough dwelling in the past, especially since it was 2 weeks ago – let’s move onto DAY OF THE DOG.  Now remember, in a gambling world, just because you pick a DOG, doesn’t mean you necessarily think that team is going to win.  You are playing with the points – which I intend to do this week as you’ll see.  The trick will be which team to call my UPSET SPECIAL:

Raiders +5.5 @ Houston -  Houston has a very good offense, but an offense that will be sorely missing Andre Johnson.  When you don’t have to worry about how you are going to double-cover him, you can spend your time figuring out stopping Arian Foster.  With Al Davis’ death, the Raiders will have a little extra incentive….at least to keep it within 5.5.  Oakland lost to Houston last year when they didn’t have Johnson – but this is a better Oakland team.

Jets +7.5 @ New England  - I would’ve even felt better if I wrote this post earlier this week when this line came out at 9.  Fortunately, in a spread betting pool I’m in, we utilize the Monday lines and they lock – so I’m happy about that at least.  Look, New England is likely going to win this game.  However, this is a division, rivalry game.  It will be closer than people think.  Obviously, I’m not the only one who thinks this since $$$ has gone to the J-E-T-S dropping this line 1.5 points.  New England’s Defense stinks.  That’s right, stinks.  The Jets are going to run, run, run keeping Tommy on the side.  This will be about a 24-20 game or so – feel good with that 7.5 points (I’ll feel better with 9, but who wouldn’t?)

Cincinnati Bengals -1 @ Jacksonville – Sorry – I had to stray from a dog – but it is an away team so that is close enough.  This game is going to be a field goal game and anyone can win it.  Jacksonville will have a harder time against the Cinci defense then vice versa.  When it’s just a point – pick a winner.  I pick the Bengals and feel pretty good about it.

UPSET SPECIAL:

Atlanta Falcons +5.5 vs Green Bay - This one has been on the calendar probably since the start of training camp – however long that was.  After the Falcons were throttled at home last year in the playoffs, they restocked and will be going to try to match offensive fireworks against the Pack this week at home.  These are 2 of the best teams in the conference and will be squaring up in front of a national audience.  The Falcons dont’ get embarrassed at home again and send a message to the rest of the league that the Packers aren’t unstoppable.  A home team – getting 5.5?  In a game that they can win?  I’ll take it.

THE BELOVED:

Bears +5 @ Detroit - When we did our picks at the beginning of the year, I picked the Bears to lose this one to start the season 2-3.  I have them making a run soon, though, so fear not my fellow Bear fans.  This will definitely be the most exciting Bears/Lions game I’ve seen in a long, long time, on Monday Night, to boot.  IF the Bears are balanced, and IF the front four gets pressure so Calvin is not running around like crazy in our secondary, the Bears will win.  I’m pretty confident this is going to happen – so I’ll take 5 points and our boys.

SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (3-2-1); UPSET SPECIAL (1-1); BELOVED (0-2); TOTAL: (4-5-1)