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Handicapping NFL Week 6: Picks of the Week


Like Bears fans across the country, the Bears are killing me!  I think I’ve said it before, but in case I didn’t, the only reason I attempt to pick the Bears games is because this is a Bears Blog.  I’m obviously not that good at it because heart and mind don’t play nicely together.  I should’ve trusted my initial prediction at the beginning of the season where I picked the Bears losing to the Lions.  But I got caught up in the hype and the thought that the Bears could jump on the Lions and hold them defensively to stop that crazy come from behind nonsense the Lions have been pulling off.  Boy, I was wrong.  The Defense is having problems stopping….anything.  This week is worse trying to pick them with multiple changes.  I’ll explain later.

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK: Well, I’ve already discussed the Bears, so we’ll be done with that. They really blew my “DAY of DOG” theme – didn’t they? My three weekly picks continue to go well.  Anytime you are up and over .500, you are doing alright in the gambling world.  I really liked the Raiders upsetting last week and I took them across the board in all of my pools and shenanigans last week.  I like them at home again this week too.  You knew they’d have a little extra motivation with the passing of Al Davis – but more importantly, the loss of Andre Johnson.  Cincinnati made it exciting against Jacksonville (30-20), but again, when there is a team you like to win and they’re only favored by 1, light it up.  The 17 points in 4th quarter certainly helped.  When did Cincinnati get a Defense?  I’m upset about my loss with the Jets – particularly because I mentioned that I took them in Spread Points league and they were getting 9.  The spread dropped to 7.5 because people around the c0untry shared the same sentiment as me – and sure enough, that’s where it ended – Jets lost by 9.  In my Spread league, I pushed.  Record-keeping on BGO – it’s an “L.” 

I don’t remember the media, but someone wrote or reported that the RAMS/GREENBAY game this week is a trap game for GreenBay.  Really?  A trap game?  I disagree.  A trap game is a game you are favored, but the other team has a chance to win.  Now, St. Louis is 0-4 and to be honest, I think I picked them to win their Division, sigh.  They have played some tough teams to start:  Philadelphia (well, they were the Dream Team, remember?), NY Giants, Baltimore, and suprising Washington.  So, I still think they are better than their record indicates.  However, they are travelling to Green Bay who will not take them lightly and will blow them out.  I’m discussing this because sadly, I thought the trap game for the Packers was the Falcons last week.  The Falcons were underdogs at home last week and started exactly as I anticipated:  14-0.  What the heck happened?  That one was a disappointment for sure.  Onto Week 6:

Eagles -3 @ Washington:  This one is based alot on gut.  The Eagles are having problems stopping anyone on Defense.  This is a Division Game and it is in Washington.  I’m picking this one because the Eagles HAVE to win this game.  Now, of course, that doesn’t mean that they are going to win it because there are always teams that are in must-wins and they do not.  But let’s look at some other factors and break it down.  Washington has beat:  St. Louis, Arizona, and the New York Giants (they were impressive against Seattle last week weren’t they?) Redskins Defense has been playing well (in the top 10 in categories), but the Philly’s multi-faceted offense (Vick scrambling, McCoy running and receiving out of backfield, Maclin and Jackson) will jack those categories up.  There’s a reason Vegas doesn’t respect the Redskins yet, I’ll take the Eagles giving 3-even on the road.

Pittsburgh -12.5 vs Jacksonville -  Blaine Gabbert.  Enough said.  Anyone see long flowing black hair blowing in the wind for a pick 6?

Green Bay -14 vs St. Louis - This is rare for me to pick to high spreads covering.  First thing is, I don’t like a lot of games this week.  Secondly, can’t you just see this score being this by half-time?  I hate it, I do, but Packers are head and shoulders better than the Rams.  Could the Rams cover?  Sure, some late dumb touchdown….but I’ll take that chance.

UPSET SPECIAL:

BIG ONE:  Tampa Bay +6.5 vs New Orleans -Did you see Tampa get blown out last week?  Yes I did. Have I seen Brees dissect opposing Defenses?  Yes I have.  Tampa is home after a disappointing loss last week.  Blowouts happen – sometimes they can have impact on the way you play the following week, sometimes not.  This game is going to be alot closer than people think.  I’ll take Tampa and the points.  This isn’t in the Dome.

THE BELOVED: 

Bears -1.5 vs Minnesota:   I feel like picking Minnesota just so the Bears will win – because everything I pick when it comes to the Bears it ends up the opposite.  Beginning of the season pick:  Bears.  After Sunday’s Debacle pick:  Bears.  Benching safeties:  Bears.  Julius Peppers not playing:  getting nervous.  Watching line drop from 3 to 1.5: even more nervous.   I know the Bears didn’t look good last week, but Minnesota is not a good team, people.  This will be the game we will see a different game plan from the Bears and everyone will feel a little better.  The Bears are going to utilize a heavy dose of Forte (running/receiving), Sanzenbacher (short routes), Hester (slants and screens), and mix in a little Cutler scrambling.  The Bears will do enough against Peterson (notice I didn’t say shut-down).  This is game season turns around.

SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (5-3-1); UPSET SPECIAL (1-2); BELOVED (0-3); TOTAL: (6-8-1)

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