Handicapping NFL Week 7: Picks of the Week
By Bart
This is about the time I start to get into my groove and my 4-1 record last week supports that claim. Of course, there are a couple teams that are still befuddling (see: Chicago Bears), but overall, patterns start to emerge and spreads start to stabilize. I’ll get to picks in a minute, but since our leader, and my buddy, Boomer, sent me a story link this week, I figured I’d tie it into my little piece here. The Bears are in London this week as we all know, but what you may not know is that it is very easy to gamble on the game there in England, as opposed to here in Chicago. For your information, Brad Biggs from the Chicago Tribune shared the following props from London:
Matt Forte 9-2 first touchdown of game; 8-15 scores a touchdown in game;
Johnny Knox 12-1 first touchdown of game; 2-1 scores a touchdown in game;
Devin Hester 12-1 first touchdown of game; 15-8 scores a touchdown in game;
Dane Sanzenbacher 14-1 first touchdown of game; 11-5 scores a touchdown in game;
Marlon Barber 14-1 first touchdown of game; 11-5 scores a touchdown in game;
Roy Williams 16-1 first touchdown of game; 11-4 scores a touchdown in game;
Bears defense 22-1 first touchdown of game; 3-1 scores a touchdown in game;
Earl Bennett 25-1 first touchdown of game; 7-2 scores a touchdown in game
Could you imagine walking into the new Rivers Casino on a Sunday morning and just throwing down $10 on a couple of those props? Wouldn’t it be fun to have a legal Sportsbook around and not have to worry about going through a local bookie, offshore account, or planning a vacation to Vegas around a season, tournament, or Series? Well, I’m not going to get up and stay on a soapbox for too long, but it seems a little silly to me to have all of this gambling around us (that is illegal remember- unless it is on water…whatever) and not allow Sports gambling. Oh shoot, I forgot, we can bet on horses. We used to be able to bet on greyhounds in Delavan too. Just not on the most interesting, enterataining, sport in the country. But somehow, it’s okay that certain websites (who shall remain nameless), can run fantasy leagues and take 1/2 of the $ that they collect from each league and claim fantasy is not gambling because the winners win a contest. OK…..contest winner. If Rivers wants to run a couple of contests every Sunday in the future, I’d be all for it. Follow the jump for my Week 6 Summary and Week 7 picks.
SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK: Of course I’m going to write about it, it was my best week of the season to date. I hope you all appreciated the Philadelphia call. They were coming and were going to win sooner or later, I just had a strong gut that last week was going to be the week. The Rams, having a difficult schedule to start the year, are now averaging about 17-18 pt losses, so picking the Packers over them last week wasn’t a stretch. I told you though, that a late TD could mess it up. When there is a 14.5 pt spread, you usually feel safe when the score is 24-3. But a gambler knows, some flukee TD could cost you the game – didn’t happen last week. The Pittsburgh game against Jacksonville, my only loss, was a little disappointing. It was 17-3 at half, which was the cover. However, I believe Troy left the game in the 2nd half and that likely had an impact on Jacksonville’s ability to put up 10 to cover. I’d like to think that my Tampa over New Orleans pick was as big as my Minnesota pick over Philly last year, but I don’t think anything will compare with that one. However, I’m sure I got a lot of raised eye brows when I took the Bucs to beat the high-powered Saints after they were just throttled 48-3 by the 49ers. Lastly, I finally got the Bears right. I would’ve been much more confident if I didn’t get sucked into the whole “Julius Peppers isn’t playing thing,” but I have to admit, I liked that gamemanship. Screw the Viqueens! Onto Week 7:
Baltimore -7.5 @ Jacksonville – This was kind of tough to pick after I lost on Pittsburgh last week vs. Jacksonville, but if you followed my beginning of the year picks, you’d see I have Baltimore winning it all. I’m a huge fan of Baltimore – especially there Defense. Jacksonville is going to have a hard time putting up anymore than 10 on the Ravens and the Baltimore Offense will put up 21-28 pts on them. This is a solid Monday Night play. Don’t let the hook scare you!
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Arizona – Pittsburgh hasn’t been blowing anyone out and they’re not necessarily super-strong on the road. That is exactly why this spread is low. Remember, people got burned on Pittsburgh last week and they have that Jacksonville non-cover (at home, no less) still buring a hole in their wallet. I like to get rid of burning feelings (you can take that comment wherever you choose).
Dallas -12.5 vs Rams- Dallas rates up there with teams I don’t really get or typically stay away from. (also included: Chargers, Bears, Giants) Alot of people put that on Romo, as well they should, but a whole team wins and loses. As I wrote earlier, Rams are losing by an avg. 17-18 pts a game. If Bradford is out, it is really going to be tough. Dallas is coming home after a tough game vs. New England and they’re going to be the “GOOD” Cowboys on Sunday. 27-10? Sounds about right.
UPSET SPECIAL:
Minnesota +9 vs. GreenBay: How many of you looked at this game and went, “What?” Well the rest of the country did too. Everyone watched Sunday Night as the Bears rocked Minnesota by 29 points. Well, that would lead most people to this, “Well the Bears beat Minnesota by 29 and the Packers beat the Bears, they’ll have to beat Minnesota by 9.” Not so fast. I know Ponder is starting and I know that Green Bay is 10 times better than Minnesota. But that’s why they play the games, people. This is a rivalry game and it is in Minnesota. Minnesota is going to gameplan with Peterson and to Ponder’s strengths and this game will be a lot closer than people think. I guarantee you that money is going GreenBay’s way across the country. That’s all the more reason to pick Minnesota. This is a trap game.
THE BELOVED:
Bears -1 vs Tampa (LONDON)- What about the Bucs scares you? Nothing? Me neither. They are a feisty young team that plays well together as a team. But there is no Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Drew Brees, or Michael Turner on this team. A good team, but no one person or scheme that will cause problems for the Bears. It will be a good game, a close game, but another “W” for the Bears going into their bye.
SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (7-4-1); UPSET SPECIAL (2-2); BELOVED (1-3); TOTAL: (10-9-1)