Another 4-1 week. As happy as I was with back-to-back 4-1 weeks, I was most disappointed with Baltimore last week. I did enough of a soapbox speech last week about gambling, so let’s just get into last’s weeks picks.
SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK: I knew that Pittsburgh would come back and take care of Arizona after not covering against Jacksonville the week before, even though they were on the road. I predicted a 27-10 Dallas win, which wasn’t far off the 34 -7 thumping over the Rams. It was the “good” Dallas team as planned. The Baltimore loss absolutely was crushing for me as I lost in 2 survival pools. I wasn’t upset that they didn’t cover – I was flabbergasted that they lost. Watching that game was maddening, but I was impressed by Jacksonville’s Defense. Hey, Baltimore, remember Ray Rice? My goodness, the guy fumbles once in like 500 carries and they have him sitting. You’ve got to give him the ball more than 8 times (and not just because he’s my fantasy back). They were wondering why they weren’t picking up 1st downs. Hmmm, let me think. Well, as you’ll see below, I’m heading right back to ‘em. Let’s move to Week 8:
New England -2.5 @ Pittsburgh – probably the 1st or 2nd best game of the week (I also am interested in the Dal/Philly Sunday night game). This one is particularly interesting because here is how I see it. New England has a better offense, Pittsburgh has a better Defense. So, is New England’s more potent offense going to score more against a better defense or is Pittsburgh less potent offense going to score more against a worse defense? Typically, I’d tilt defensively and with the home team, and that is how the spread is set-up this time I’d think. When you look at the schedule, this would be one of those games you might chalk up as an “L” for New England. Brady is like 5-1 or something like that at Heinz, so he knows how to win there – I’ll take the Patriots.
Ravens -12.5 vs Arizona – this isn’t as tough as you think despite my disgust from last week. They will return to Mr. Rice this game. The Defense will shut down Arizona, and this will be a blow-out. Interesting stat: 3/8 TDS scored against Baltimore this year wasn’t scored against the Defense. So, really, Baltimore’s D is allowing less than a TD a game. When you have to cover 12.5 pts, I like that. Now, offense, give it to the man and let’s “run” away with this one!
New Orleans -13.5 @ Rams - the Saints scored more points last week than the Rams have all season. Rams are in trouble, even at home.
….since the Beloved aren’t playing today, I’ve decided to add a game to the Pick 3
NY Giants -9.5 vs Miami - I’m going to go out on a limb here despite my disdain for the inconsistency of the Giants. My guess is that Coughlin has the boys ready to play against this weak Miami team. After a bad loss to Seattle at home a couple of weeks ago, the Giants will not lose 2 at home to crappy teams. After Miami’s terrible last minute loss to Denver last week, the defensive players were chirping about how everyone knew Tebow was going to run in the extra point, but they didn’t have the right Defense on the field. Those are cracks, people, this team is starting to splinter and this week will be the implosion.
Jacksonville +9.5 @ Houston – Jacksonville’s Defense has done a nice job over the last several weeks. Since being blown-out by the Jets in Week 2, they’ve held down Pitt and Baltimore. They only gave up 23 to the high-powered Saints and 16 to Carolina. I’ll roll the dice and take 9.5 points against Houston and hope that their offense can do a little something.
SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (9-5-1); UPSET SPECIAL (3-2); BELOVED (2-3); TOTAL: (14-10-1)