Handicapping NFL Week 10: Picks of the Week


There’s nothing worse than a bad week, unless of course again, it is followed up by another bad week.  Back to back bad weeks can shake your confidence, but don’t let it.  Things are more consistent than you think and remember, spreads are based on the betting public too.   Public confidence is shaken by team’s bad games and the public doesn’t always follow trends.  So, keep your course, my friends, and stay thirsty.

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:  I don’t know if it is good or bad, but I accidentally left out my Upset Special last week, so I ended up 1-3.  The best thing about it is that I picked against the Bears like most people across the country.  I was really impressed by the way they played Monday Night and with that type of play, I don’t see why they couldn’t beat everyone, including our neighbors up north.  The problem with the Bears is that you nver know when theymight revert back to “CRAZY O” again.  But, if they keep the balanced attack, I’m going to be picking them much more frequently – especially with these next few games coming. Last week’s good pick was the 49ers.  There was only one factor that scared me about the 49ers/Washington game and that was the West to East Coast trip.  However, for those of you who don’t know – the 49ers are 4-0 on the road – all far games (Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit, and now Washington).  That is pretty impressive.  Remember that in the playoffs.  Oakland disappointed against Denver at home, but then went and beat San Diego on the road this week.  All the more reason Bears should feel pretty good about playing everyone in the AFC West in the next four weeks.  Especially after watching Kansas City lose at home to Miami?  Seriously?  That one was a little odd.  Oh well, onto Week 10:

KC-3 vs Denver – I like this game for 2 reasons.  First of all, this is week 2 of Denver’s road trip. Last week they had to go to Oakland, this week KC.  They are not a good team and are not going to win 2 Divison games on the road in back-to-back weeks.  Seconod of all, KC is on Week 3 of three straight home games.  Listen to their next opponents:  New England, Pittsburgh, Bears, Jets, Packers, Raiders.  Ouch!  They cannot let another crappy team come and beat them at Arrowhead, especially with that warzone they need to get through in the next six weeks.  Don’t let the games last week fool you – KC will take care of Denver this week.

and with this week being a little more difficult, I’m taking a different route….

Tampa Bay +3.5 vs Houston:  What I consider to be about 2 even teams and the home team getting 3.5 points.  I’m assuming Johnson is not playing on this one.

Rams +3 @ Cleveland:  In a game that can go either way, I’ll take the team with a good running back and is feeling pretty good about itself after beating the Saints and coming close last week.  They’re getting 3 too!

 UPSET SPECIAL:

Buffalo +5.5 @ Dallas -  You never know which Dallas team is going to show up.  Well, one better show up because this isn’t the rollover Bills anymore.  This will be a close game that can go either way, so it’s a no-brainer to take 5.5 points.

THE BELOVED:  I’ve very confident in the Bears ability to beat Detroit on Sunday.  Their last game against Detroit was ugly, penalty-filled, and disappointing.  I don’t have the exact stat, but Jay had about fiftenn 5- and 7- step dropbacks.  When you had a line is disarray, that wasn’t very well-thought out by Mr. Martz.  Anyhoo, similar to last year, the Bears had a wake-up call Offensively (albeit earlier this year thank goodness) and look much more in sync than when they played Detroit last time.  It seems as if the Bears have tightened up on Defense as well and I doubt we’ll see huge big gainers (i.e. Best and Johnson TDs).  Now, the Bears may not be able to shut down Megatron, but with Detroit’s weaker running game – I’d triple-cover him.  Ok, that’s an exaggeration, but don’t let him beat you.  Let Detroit dump off and throw it to Pettigrew 15 times (my fantasy TE) and then eventually punt.  The Bears are going to enact a little revenge on Sunday and I’m looking forward to seeing Detroit being put back in their place.

 SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (10-11-1); UPSET SPECIAL (3-3); BELOVED (2-4); TOTAL: (15-18-1)

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