Handicapping NFL Week 11: Picks of the Week

There are seven weeks to go and playoffs, and I’m not liking where I’m at after these last three tough weeks.  However, as an educator, I’m always promoting teachable moments.  So, I’m going to use my 2-3 week last week as a teachable moment, particularly to people like my brother.  When picking games and commiting to one team or another in writing, you subject yourself to “I told you so’s” or “Are you crazy?”  The funny thing about it is that those statements tend to come after the games from your critics.  Comments like, “I knew that Denver was going to beat the Chiefs last week” are easy things to say after-the-fact.  The phrase Hindsight is 20/20 I think started in the gambling world.  So, on Monday morning, when I received an email from my brother that simply said:  Buffalo, Tampa Bay, KC?  I found it interesting.  First, I found it interesting that he questioned it, yet put 8 points on TB and 9 points on KC in our confidence pool.  This either tells me that he blindly follows my picks for his picks in the pool, or didn’t think that his questioning of me would lead to me researching his picks.  It also made me think for the critics or the hindsighters, don’t wait until a Monday morning when the finals are in to proclaim your genius.  If you see a pick on this post that you disagree with, put it in writing and comment on the blog.  If you think that there is a pick that I’m missing, put your name to it and let the world experience your genius so we can all make some dinero together.  A couple of weeks ago, Jerry Richardson, did when he predicted a 17 point win by the Bears when I thought that they were going to lose to the Eagles.  Good for him for making the call PRIOR to the game.  Overall, my friends, do not be led astray by questions that may come your way when you are on a little downturn.  Grinding is about ebbs and flows.  When your grinding, you’re looking at the end of the year result.  Sure, you’d love to win every week, but it’s about the end result as well as having fun along the way.

Summary of Last Week:  I discussed this up above, so not much more to say.  The RAMS slid by Cleveland to get me a cover in my Pick 3.  The AFC West is one of the most bizarre divisions.  KC started out looking terrible, then awesome, then terrible again.  Denver started out terrible and now is playing great with a motivating terrible quarterback.  Oakland has a new QB and is unpredictable week to week and the Chargers on a four game skid coming into Chicago this week.  Bears should sweep or at least take 3/4 from these goofy teams during this next month.  Anyway, KC should not have lost to Denver last week.  KC has the Steelers, Patriots, Bears, and Packers left on their schedule, so have fun with that.  They can start planning for watching the playoffs on tv.  Tampa Bay hasn’t recovered from their loss to the Bears in London, since losing to the Saints and Houston.  Didn’t they used to be good?  I thought Buffalo would keep up with Dallas last week, but Dallas decided to be “good Cowboys” last week.  Hard to pick them or against them, might avoid them in the future.  The Bears once again looked very good beating up on Detroit.  That was probably the most confident I felt picking the Bears to win all season long.  There almost seemed to be this sense pre-game and all week that revenge was coming.  Oh well, time to right right the ship – on to Week 11 and another WEEK OF THE DOG:

Jaguars +1 @ Browns -The Browns have averaged 10 points a game for the past 4 weeks.  That doesn’t bode well for them, especially against this good Jacksonville Defense.  Field position, field goal game.  Take the better Defense and the points.

Buffalo +1 @ Miami – Buffalo has been in a little bit of a slump and Miami has been on a little bit of an upswing.  Buffalo is a better team.  Since this is a division game and in Miami, it’ll be close.  But I’ll take Buffalo and the point…simply because Buffalo is going to win.

Raiders +1 @ Minnesota - Carson Palmer will be topic of discussion tomorrow on ESPN after this one.

UPSET SPECIAL: Well, I’ve already picked three dogs, what more do you want?

Tampa Bay Succaneers +14 @ GreenBay – at 4-5, Tampa’s playoff lives are at stake.  As a young team, their collapse last week will have been thoroughly pointed out by their coaching staff and Tampa will fight to the end of this game.  I’ll take a shameless cover, a late TD or something of the sort for a nice cover.  Let’s not forget that Green Bay is likely already looking past this game to their Thanksgiving division match-up with the Lions.

THE BELOVED:

Bears -3.5 vs San Diego -the only non-dog pick of the week. Everyone is fearful of the late “SanDiego charge”, but it is not going to start in Chicago.  The Bears are playing too well and will again get a couple of turnovers to seal another solid home win.  Bears are sending a message to the league that the beginning of the season was just that: the beginning of the season.  Bears are starting to pick up a head of steam and will nicely cover 3.5 tomorrow.

 

 

 

SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (11-13-1); UPSET SPECIAL (3-4); BELOVED (3-4); TOTAL: (17-21-1)

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