Handicapping NFL Week 14: Picks of the Week


So, let’s pretend I’m in Vegas and I walk into a sportsbook every week to lay my wagers.  There may be sometimes or some weeks that I may just decide that it’s just not a good week and I’m going to lay off.  There may be sometimes that you just think to yourself that it is not a good year and it’s time to fold up shop.  This year may be one of those circumstances.  However, if you are a grinder, which I consider myself, you always look at the big picture and why you even consider sports betting.  Some people want to bet on sports for the big splash – high risk, high reward.  Others, like myself, consider themselves grinders.  Play alot, play affordable, and target above 500.  If you’re goal is to make a ton of money all at once, this is not your approach.  However, if you enjoy the thrill of betting on a weekly basis and realize that there are going to be ups and downs week to week, and year to year, then become a grinder.  I rationalized earlier in the year that it is okay to have a bad week or two because you can make it up.  Same idea happens in the big picture, it’s okay to have a bad year as long as it is off-set by a previous year or next year.  That’s what I’m banking on.  However, I still want to get as close to 500 as I can this year and that is my goal for this final quarter of the season.

Summary of Last Week:  I knew that Cincinnati was not on the same level as Pittsburgh just yet, so that was an easy one.  My other win came in with good Dallas not showing up and losing to the Cardinals. I told you that Dallas doesn’t do well against the Cardinals for some reason – especially in Arizona.  New England had the Colts down by 28 – don’t know what the heck happened with that.  That was disappointing because New England usually doesn’t take the foot off the gas.  But, with that Defense and their injuries, I almost get it….almost.  It was great for the Bears that Atlanta lost, but I was suprised with that one.  How about Houston?  Did pretty well with a 3rd String QB – Martz should maybe check their film.  I don’t want to talk about the Bears losing.  I mean, really? Oh well, on to Week 14:

Picks of the Week:

Lions -9.5 vs Viqueens -people are going to shy away from this one because they only tend to remember last week (Vikings scoring alot and hanging with Denver and the Lions losing to the Saints).  However, with Ponder questionable and Peterson a “maybe”, the queens are going to struggle.  Detroit is at home, Stafford will pick apart the queens secondary, and maybe the Lions won’t have 5 Personal Foul penalties today.  The Lions can ill-afford to lose this one with their playoff lives hanging in the balance.  Unfortunately for the Bears, the Lions get a gimme this week.

49ers -3.5 vs Cardinals -I was scared to put this one in there because I’m not quite sure why this spread is where it is at and I feel like the uninformed betting public (people will simply look at their records and the 5 game differential and assume that the 49ers are going to win).  I’m hoping that the spread is lower because the Cardinals beat Dallas last week and everyone thinks Dallas is awesome – that’s really what I’m thinking.  The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the league and they’ll be able to shut down the Cardinals offense.  I’m really liking just giving 3.5.

(I’m struggling between Chargers and Seahawks…..)

Chargers -7 vs Bills-after last week, the Chargers may be beginning their late season surge.  They’re at home this week playing a Bills team that is going in the opposite directions and lost to the Titans last week.  The Chargers put up 38 on a pretty good Jacksonville Defense, so they’ll likely be able to do the same this week and 7 shouldn’t be a difficult cover.

UPSET OF THE WEEK:

Tennesse +3.5 vs Saints -weather, field, fans, sleeping accommodations, routine – whatever it is, the Saints simply are not the same team on the road as they are in the Superdome.  People across the country are going to be laying their dough on the Saints because this looks like a no-brainer.  I don’t call it a no-brainer, I call it a trap.

THE BELOVED:

Bears +3.5 @ Denver - I’m upset about this game  because about 3 weeks ago I was clamoring, “Just wait until the Bears play Denver.  That offense is not going to work against the Bears.  Tebow and his offense are going to struggle when they play speedy, disciplined teams.  Have fun against Peppers, Briggs, Urlacher, etc.”  Wherein I still feel that way, my enthusiasm is tapered by the lackluster offense.  However, remember how drasticaly things can look and change in the NFL on a week to week basis.  Games are decided by 1 or 2 plays when you look back at them.  Chicagoans would be looking a lot differently at this week if:  Barber lined up on the line of scrimmage, Roy Williams caught that pass on the 3 yard line, and Conte didn’t smash the ball right into the Chiefs hands.  This will be a fun one, not as easy, but still a “W” for the Bears.  Hanie will be better, Barber and Bell will do what they need to, and max protection will be back.  Earl will be featured, screens will be back, and the Defense will hold Denver to 10 points or under.  The offense, special teams, and Defense need 13 or 14 pts.  They’ll get it.

 

 

SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (14-19-1); UPSET SPECIAL (5-5); BELOVED (4-6); TOTAL: (23-30-1)

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