Handicapping and Summary of the Season
By Bart
Season Comparison
2010-2011: 3 Picks: 30-16-2 +1240 2011-2012: 3 Picks: 22-23-1 -$330
2010-2011: Upset Special: 9-7 +$130 2011-2012: Upset Special: 6-8 -$280
2010-2011: Beloved: 6-8-1 -$280 2011-2012: Beloved: 7-7 -$70
2010-2011: Playoffs: 7-5 +$150 2011-2012: TBD, but 4-4 right now -$40
2010-2011: TOTAL 52-36-3 +$1240 2011-2012: Temp Total 39-42-1 -$720
TOTAL: +$520
SUMMARY of the SEASON:
I know that this may be a little early since there are still 3 more games left to be played in the NFL Season. I also expect my playoff record to be over 500 by the end of the year. However, I thought it would be interesting for everyone to break down the numbers and learn a little as we continue to go forward. Again, here’s how this works. Assume that every “wager” is $100. Every wager that is made, when lost, pays “juice” of 10%. So, if you lose a $100 bet, you are paying $110. Here are my observations:
+ I did a helluva lot better last year and should’ve stopped and went on vacation.
+I missed two weeks due to our New Orleans Trip and basic Sunday Morning…..confusion?
+ I think a really interesting fact to notice is my Pick 3 this year. Notice that I would’ve lost $330 and the difference was only 1 game. Most of the money lost in that section was juice money. It epitomizes how and why Vegas operates as it does. The more wagers coming in, the more money they make. This is why lines fluctuate, to try to even out the money coming in on both sides so they can walk away with the juice. Even if I would’ve ended up at 500, I still would’ve been in the hole.
+ I was a little disappointed with my Upset Specials this year – the last two weeks killed me in that section.
+ The Beloved stayed about even (slight improvement). If I were wagering, it’d be small to make it interesting. Heart and mind are not good bedfellows.
+One of my best lessons has been outside of the scope of my writing, so I guess technically it doesn’t count, but I’ll share anyway. The Over/Unders have been really good lately. I’ll include in next week’s Handicapping Section.
+ I’m still up $ -if I were playing all of these games – if I were rich enough to bet $100 a game- and if I lived in Vegas. Remember, I’m a grinder, and not in this to make a million fast, so I’m happy with that total. If wagering, I’d like to win some money of course, I’d do it for love of the game, the thrill of the wager, and make the game I love one more bit exciting (remember Homer and the chocolate sprinkles speech to Lisa Simpson). Still playing with OPM (other people’s money), so I’ll be back next year. Unless I lose it all in the next 3 games……naaaah, ain’t gonna happen. See you later in the week!…….BART