Surviving Week #1 With Confidence
It’s finally arrived Week #1 of the NFL season, and hopefully you have entered what has to be the most exciteing “fantasy league” around, the suicide or politically correct Survivor league this season. If you are not aware of what a survivor league is here is the cliff notes. You get to pick one game a week, but you cannot pick the same team twice to win in the season, and once you lose your eliminated for the season which makes the pot winner take all.
There are several keys to surviving this type of league. The first key is planning the path you are choosing for the season. The Appalachian trail is 2,185 miles long and if you plan on making the entire trip it takes a lot of planning and preparations. You cannot just jump on the trail with a bottle of water and expect to make it for any type of extended amount of time. The same holds true for survivor leagues. Most NFL coaches breakdown their season in quarters which is also very good advice in this type of league. You need to look at the first four weeks with the best match-ups while not wasting a team that everyone knows that will go 12-4 like the New England Patriots in Week 1. You do need to get out of the first quarter of the season, which means sometimes you do use some good teams quicker than you would like because of the uncertainty of the new season. The best plan is to map out your first four weeks of picks and remap your plan again in Week 5.
The 2nd key which is the hardest part of the survivor is to avoid the Herd game. What do you mean? Every season there is a game that is a virtual lock that 75 percent of owners will pick and the upset occurs and you are sitting out the rest of the season. The biggest herd game I was involved in was when the Miami Dolphins visited Foxboro and introduced a new offensive system called the Wildcat and destroyed the Patriots that day. Sometimes like in life, if its too good to be true you have to just pass it by.
The last key to survivor is to avoid picking teams on the road at all cost. Yes not every home team wins but as the season grows longer the one system that has always worked is pick the team at home with the largest point spread. Vegas sets the line to get action, but if its picking a team to win by 13, its pretty confident that team is going to win.
Here’s my picks in categories for Survival Week #1
Trailblazer-No Brainers
Chicago Bears- Home game against a poor team last year with a rookie QB.
Houston Texans- The Texans offense will put up a ton of points and another rookie QB starting on the road against a solid defense
Detroit Lions- They should make easy work of the Lambs
On the Trail-Cautiously Optimistic
Baltimore Ravens- Divison rival with a good defense. Pick with caution
New Orleans Saints- RGIII debut could put up big points, but Drew Brees should outscore them.
Off Road- Unorthodox Pick
Green Bay Packers- Playing a solid defensive unit with an improved offense coming off NFC Championship loss in San Fransisco
Atlanta Falcons- Played terrible last season on the road and faces a stiff defense on the road in KC
NY Giants- Defending Super Bowl team doesn’t lose on opening night but this is a Wednesday game not Thursday.
Join a survivor league today! You will never feel such highs and lows while watching football excluding watching your team in the Super Bowl!
Confidence Leagues
This is the bread and butter of office pools throughout the country. Everyone knows the rules so no need to explain so here are the picks for this week in categories
Top Tier (12-16 Confidence points)
1. Texans over Dolphins
2. Bears over Colts
3. Lions over Rams
4. Saints over Redskins
5. New Englans over Titans
Middle Tier (7-11 Confidence Points)
1. Eagles over Browns
2. Giants over Cowboys
3. Ravens over Bengals
4. Packers over SF 49ers
5. Falcons over Chiefs
Low Confidence Tier (4-6 confidence points)
1. Jacksonville over Minnesota
2. Seattle over Arizona
3. Oakland over San Diego
Tossup (1-3 confidence picks)
1. Buffalo over NY Jets
2. Bucs over Panthers
3. Broncos over Steelers
Good luck in Week #1! Don’t forget the season kicks off on Wednesday so get your picks in on time. Survive, Advance, and Win the Cash!!