Fantasy Football Week 5: Start’em / Sit’em

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Last week’s results: 15-7-2, Season 36-25-10

To those of you who started Tavon Austin based on my recommendations the last few weeks, I apologize. I’m giving up on Austin for a while. Besides Austin and Tony G (wow) I had a pretty good week. I’m not getting cocky or anything, but after a disastrous week 1, I’ve been right more than wrong for 3 weeks in a row (32-18). I’m sure I’m jinxing myself, so use my advice at your own risk. In case you’re double checking my record, I don’t count players that get hurt during games (McFadden) as that is completely out of the prognosticator’s control. If you’re nitpicking, I count anything within a 1 point range on either side as a push.  My best picks of the week were Le’Veon Bell, Alshon Jeffery, and my bust pick V-Jax. That’s two weeks in a row I called the bust correctly, but I was about 30 points off on my Tony G (sit’em) projection so that cancels out any good will from my wins.

We have 4 teams on bye this week for the first time all year, so odds are you may have some tough decisions to make on who to start this week. Check out my picks below and let’s hope the hot streak continues!

Note: Only players started in less than 75% of yahoo leagues will be listed in Start’em section. These recommendations are for players you may be on the fence about that I think will over (Start) or under (Sit) perform their Yahoo projections.

Start’em:

QB:

Russell Wilson @IND (55% started, 16 projected points): The Colts have given up the fewest fantasy points to QBs this season. So why am I starting Russell Wilson this week? The Colts have played Blaine Gabbert, Terrelle Pryor, Ryan Tannehill, and Colin Kapernick in his worst performance as a pro. It’s not exactly a murders row and the Colts D is mostly the same unit that finished in the middle of the pack statistically last season. I think Wilson will bounce back from a sub-par week 4 against a tough Houston defense (fewest passing yards allowed in 2013) and will have a 3 TD game (2 throwing, 1 rushing) this week.

Cam Newton @ARI  (53%, 18): I’m guessing Cam’s low start percentage is due to coming off a bye week and people waiting to set their lineups. There is no excuse for not having Cam as your starter after his brilliant week 3 performance against the Giants (3 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, 104 Rating). Arizona’s pass defense is bad (20th) and they have given up 12th most fantasy points to QBs even with Mike Glennon’s stink-bomb from last week bringing down the mean. Brees, Stafford, and Sam Bradford all threw for over 275 yards and at least 2 TDs against the Cards, except at least similar numbers from Cam.

RB:

Gio Bernard NE (57%, 13): BJGE has 42 yards over the last TWO games combined and his carries have gone down each game over the last 3 weeks (22,10,6). The talent gap is so massive between Bernard & BJGE that even Marvin Lewis can see it. Bernard is the real deal and should be in your lineup every week moving forward.

David Wilson PHI (49%, 12): The Giants released Da’Rel Scott this week which should open up even more carries for Wilson and he has a cushy match-up against the Eagles 26th ranked run defense that is giving up the 9th most fantasy points to running backs. Wilson has yet to have a breakout game, but he showed signs of improvement in week 4 and I think that will continue this week. I’m predicting his first 100-yard game of the year with one 30 yard+ touchdown.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Eddie Lacy DET (48%,11): Reports out of GB state that Lacy could of played in week 3, but they wanted to be extra cautious and give him 2 full weeks of recovery with their bye in week 4. James Starks didn’t do anything when given the chance to start in week 3 and Johnathon Franklin looked great, but had a crucial fumble late that ended up costing GB the win over Cincy. Basically, no one took Lacy’s job while he was out and he should be the primary ball-carrier in a favorable match-up as the Lions have given up the 5th most fantasy points to RBs.

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