Colin Kaepernick HOU (71%,18): As I mentioned in the Wilson recommendation, the Texans have given up the fewest passing yards in the NFL this year and stifled Russell Wilson in week 4. Kaepernick was decent last week after a couple of catastrophes in weeks 2&3, but I still don’t trust him as an every week starter despite drafting him as one in multiple leagues.
Andrew Luck SEA (49%, 17): I bet Luck owners miss Bruce Arians and his down-field attack. The Colts new OC Pep Hamilton and his short pass / power run offense has limited Luck’s fantasy value so far this year. In two of Luck’s four starts he has attempted 26 passes or less. Luck never threw less than 26 passes in a game during all of 2012. His numbers have been solid still, he’s averaging right around 20 fantasy points per game, but the Seahawks are one of the toughest match-ups in the NFL and I think the Colts will favor the run even more than usual this week. If your league deducts points for interceptions, it’s another reason to keep Luck on the bench as the Seahawks are 3rd in the NFL with 7 picks.
Ryan Mathews @OAK (43%, 10): Oakland’s defense has been surprisingly stingy against the run giving up the 9th least fantasy points to opposing RBs and Mathews frankly hasn’t looked like anything special (3.5 YPC). Danny Woodhead has been more productive with his carries (4.7 YPC) and is cutting into Mathews time on the field. I’m going to need to see a big game out of Mathews before I put him in my lineup on a weekly basis. As of now his stats and playing time are trending in the wrong direction.
Rashard Mendenhall CAR (24%, 13): Coach Bruce Arians is finally starting to see what I have said all season, Mendenhall is done. He’s got minimal burst, he’s not breaking tackles, and he made what could have been a crucial mistake late in the game when he ran out-of-bounds to stop the clock when the Cardinals were trying to waste time. The Cardinals have been rotating back-ups (Smith, Taylor, Ellington) most of the year but seem to have settled on Ellington as the primary back-up & third-down back. His snap count has increased the last two weeks and he is a threat to take Mendenhall’s carries if he continues to struggle.