Bears vs Giants Preview: Inside the Numbers
After five weeks worth of data, statistical anomalies can now be clustered into trends. The Bears, unfortunately, have developed some trends that suggest the offensive line has not improved from 2012 and the defense has taken a huge step backward in 2013. The defensive regression was probably foreseeable given the average age of its starters and improbable 2012 turnover efficiency. The Bears’ D ranks fifth-worst in the league with a (-29.6) grade from Pro Football Focus. Including Henry Melton and recent free agent acquisition Landon Cohen, the Bears have 10 players with negative grades from PFF. Of those defensive players with at least 100 snaps, only CB Tim Jennings (3.8), DE Julius Peppers (3.0), DT Stephen Paea (2.3), and DB Isaiah Frey (1.2) have positive grades. Quite simply, the Bear D is now a shell of its former self and fans should not expect an in-season turnaround. Much can be said about former coach Lovie Smith’s role as the defensive architect, but the problems likely go beyond that. Like a family pet, it’s tough to watch an endearing character succumb to the aging process. The Bears’ defense is that character as fans have grown fond of momentum-swinging turnovers and exhilarating return touchdowns. Now, fans might have to resign to the fact that this could be the last meaningful go-round for guys like Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. These two, specifically, are highly competitive and fans should bank on their best efforts over the final 11 games.
The Bears’ defense should have ample opportunities to apply pressure to Eli Manning on Thursday night. Manning has been under pressure on 41% of his dropbacks this year, the seventh-highest rate in the league. When pressured, Eli has completed just 44% of his passes. By comparison, older brother Peyton has completed 69.7% of passes when under duress. Clearly, Peppers will play a huge factor in the outcome of the game. He can also expect double and triple teams which will free up rushers Corey Wootton (-4.3) and Shea McClellin (-7.1). Both players have struggled to this point, as indicated by their PFF grades, but a bad Giants’ o-line could provide a confidence and performance boost. One player to keep an eye on is number 91, David Bass. Bass was a seventh round pick by the Raiders in 2013, but the Bears scooped him up via waivers on September 1st. He played 14 snaps against the Saints last week and earned a (1.6) grade from PFF. Bass completed the 2013 NFL Combine 20-yard shuttle in 4.33 seconds, which was faster than the draft’s third overall pick, DE Dion Jordan.
The Giants have long been recognized for applying tremendous pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Thus far, the G-Men have a (-14.9) pass rush grade from PFF, fourth-worst in the league. Jason Pierre-Paul has been hobbled, Osi Umenyiora departed for Atlanta, and opposing teams have quickly entered clock-killing run modes, so the lack of pressure might be somewhat misleading. If given time, Cutler should be able to exploit a less than formidable New York secondary (-9.9). Expect Martellus Bennett to feast on a linebacking corps that has given up touchdowns to opposing tight ends in all but one game thus far. This is a game the Bears should and, probably, must win. If the offensive line (-16.6) can hold their blocks long enough, Cutler & Co. should carve up the winless Giants.