Fantasy Football Week 7: Start’em / Sit’em

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Last week: 12-7-1: Season: 58-39-14

Week 6 Recap: After 5 weeks in a row over .500, I feel like the stench from my week 1 picks (4-7) is just about gone.

My Start’em picks were a mixed bag (5-5) with Newton grabbing the biggest point differential (+16) and my guy Alshon Jeffery with the worst (-8). It’s the first time all year I’ve gone wrong with an Alshon recommendation, so I can’t be too mad at him. You better believe he’s on the list again this week vs a bad and very short Redskins secondary.

My Sit’em picks were better at 7-2-1, but I missed badly recommending a sit on Stephan Ridley as he outperformed his projected by 15. In my defense, I mentioned that he wouldn’t be startable until he got 20 carries in a game, which he did on Sunday. My reverse jinx on Tavon Austin failed miserably, that’s the last time I will mention his name for a while. I’ve been pushing him and Jeffery all year, but I’m off the Austin bandwagon and trying to deal him for whatever I can get in most of my leagues.

Moving on to week 7, there are only two teams on bye (Oak, NO), but for fantasy purposes Oak is basically irrelevant so all we’re missing is a few high-end guys from the Saints (Brees, Graham, Sproles, Colston). Unfortunately, there were quite a few significant injuries in week 6 (Cobb, Murray, Graham, Amendola, Shorts) so if you are short a few starters this week and debating who to play, check out my lists of players who will over/under perform their Yahoo projections. You can also check out my waiver adds for this week if you need some new blood for your roster.

Note: Only players started in less than 75% of yahoo leagues will be listed in Start’em section. These recommendations are for players you may be on the fence about that I think will over (Start) or under (Sit) perform their projections (Yahoo).

Start’em:

QB:

Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

Jay Cutler @WAS (45, 20): Cutler is averaging 23.5 fantasy points over the last two games and faces a weak Redskins secondary (9th most points allowed to QBs). The Bears are starting to open up their offense over the last few weeks and Cutler is playing virtually mistake free football. He missed a couple of big plays deep that would have put him over 300 yards for the second straight week and I think he’ll get there Sunday with 2-3 TDs for good measure.

Nick Foles DAL (24%, 20): Foles threw for just under 300 yards with 3 TD passes against Darrell Revis and a tough Bucs secondary in week 6. This week he has a much easier matchup against the Cowboys, who have given up more fantasy points to QBs than any other team in the league. This may be the last week that Foles doesn’t have to worry about Mike Vick taking his job and I think he’ll have a big game and solidify the starting gig.

Deep Leagues:

Ryan Tannehill BUF (5%, 14): His stats are mediocre this year, but he’s had a brutal schedule. When you consider his average stats (276 yards, 1.4 TDs) came against 3 of the top 11 defenses in the league it is a little more impressive. Facing Buffalo and their banged up secondary at home is by far the easiest match-up Tannehill has faced this year and I expect his numbers to be pretty good this week. I’m predicted 300+ yards and at least 2 TDs. I would start him over Eli, Ryan, Kaepernick, Dalton, or Roethlisberger to name a few QBs currently being started in more leagues.

RB

Gio Bernard @DET (60%, 12): It’s hard not to get excited after seeing runs like this, but BJGE has had a mini-resurgence the last two weeks and has been getting the majority of the carries lately (37-28 over last 2 weeks). Despite Gio’s carries trending the wrong way, he’s infinitely more talented than BJGE and I think he breaks another highlight reel TD against a suspect Lions D (26th overall).

Eddie Lacy CLE (60%, 10): I’ve gotten more trade offers for Lacy the last two weeks than any other player and it isn’t even close. For all the positive buzz Lacy has generated over the last two weeks, Yahoo still has him projected right around 10 points for the 3rd consecutive week. He’s gotten exactly 23 carries the last two weeks and is producing (4.8 YPC). Lacy still hasn’t scored a TD but he hasn’t gotten any carries inside the 5-yard line either. That has to change eventually and I’m betting Lacy punches one in against a tough Browns D this week.

Lamar Miller BUF (29%,11): Buffalo’s 28th ranked run defense is just what Lamar Miller needs to get back on track after his brutal performance in week 5 (15 yards). He’s still the most talented back in Miami and I think he proves it this week with an 80+ yard, 1 TD game.

Joe Randle @PHI (27%, 11): If you spent waiver money on Randle this week you might as well start him. He wasn’t impressive in his debut Sunday (11-17) but with Murray and Dunbar out, Randle should get the majority of the carries and Philly’s defense can be run on (105.7 YPG). Randle was also a good receiver out of the backfield in college, so expect a few catches to pad his fantasy totals.

Steven Ridley @NJY (46%,8): I was way off on Ridley last week, but did say that I would be back on board if he ever started getting 20 carries a game. Well he got 20 last week and found the end zone twice. Will Belichick let him loose again? I have no idea, but he was clearly the best back they have and I’m betting he gets close to 20 carries again and finds the end zone despite the Jets fierce run D.

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  • Ryan Baxter

    Aaron Rodgers vs Cle (11th fewest points to QB, 6 fewest points to wrs, 14th most to RB) 2 starting wrs injured and breakout rb starting to dominate

    Matt Stafford vs Cin (13th fewest points to QB, 13th fewest to wrs, 9th fewest to RBs) calvin may be healthier

    No idea who to choose…