Fantasy Football Week 11: Start’em / Sit’em
Last week: 12-6-8: Season: 107-72-30
Week 10 recap: Well my Start’em picks didn’t help anybody with 7 pushes (within 1 point of projection), though my Foles and Riley Cooper picks turned out well. They are both every week starters moving forward. Not all my Eagles recommendations turned out well as Zach Ertz was a non-factor (0 targets) after three straight weeks of 5+ targets; Keep Ertz on the bench or cut him loose.
If you took my Sit’em picks to heart, you’re welcome (9-2). I missed big-time on Colston coming back to life (20 points) and just barely on D-Williams due to his TD, but the rest of my picks were solid. I was right on Fred Jackson being due for a let down, T-Rich, Mendenhall, & Anquan Boldin still sucking, and I doubt Yahoo will ever project Seneca Wallace for 16 points again. Your going to see some of the same names in my recommendations this week. If half of the fantasy football population is going to keep starting T-Rich & Boldin every week, I feel it’s my duty to keep saying how dumb it is.
Note: Only players started in less than 75% of yahoo leagues will be listed in Start’em section. These recommendations are for players you may be on the fence about that I think will over (Start) or under (Sit) perform their projections (Yahoo).
Start’em:
QB:
Nick Foles WAS (60%, 21): 16 TDs / 0 INT this season and he’s playing against a bottom five defense. I don’t see any downside here.
Matt Ryan @TB (58%, 20): Ryan had a big game vs TB back in week 6 and with Roddy Write back this week I think he’ll do it again. Tampa’s run defense is solid, but they can be thrown on.
Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports
Case Keenum OAK (27%, 17): 7 TDs / 0 INT in three starts this year and Oakland’s defense has been struggling the last two weeks. The Texans have aired it out since Keenum took over (43 pass attempts last week) and this kid has been damn good so far. I’m starting him in the two leagues I have Romo (bye).
RB:
Andre Brown GB (52%, 14): Looked like a beast last week vs Oakland. Some of that had to do with how slow Hillis looked in comparison, but either way Brown is the Giants featured back now and should get 25-30 touches against a weak GB run defense.
Ben Tate OAK (47%, 15): With Foster out and only rookie Dennis Johnson behind him on the depth chart, I think Tate might finally get the 25+ carries fantasy owners have hoped for since his rookie year (’11) when he averaged 5.4 YPC. After watching Andre Brown run through the Raiders defense, I’m expected a big game from Tate if he can stay healthy.
Andre Ellington @JAX (46%, 12): Mendenhall is still in the mix, but still sucks and despite coach Arians’ claims to keep splitting carries I think Ellington is going to be the feature back this week. Ellington (7.2) is averaging 4 more yards per carry than Mendenhall (3.1). That is a ridiculous number and if Arians doesn’t make the switch soon, I think senility might be setting in for the 61-yr old head coach.
Brian Leonard ATL (14%, 13): I expect a 2:1 split between Leonard and Rainey in this week’s match-up. I covered Leonard in my waivers column earlier this week.
Danny Woodhead @MIA (66%, 13): I was surprised to see Woodhead at only 66% started this week. He’s had double-digit fantasy points in 8 consecutive games or every game except week 1. Woodhead is a must start regardless of match-up, but he has an easy one this week in the Dolphins who have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs.
WR:
Steve Smith NE (62%, 11): It’s been 3 weeks since Smith found the end-zone, but the last two weeks it seems Cam Newton is making an effort to get Smith more involved with the offense. He’s had 21 targets over the last two games and I think that will continue this Monday night. I don’t have any stats to back it up, but Smith seems like the kind of player who will turn it up a little on national TV.
Riley Cooper WAS (54%,10): If this guy wasn’t such a jerk, people would be making more of a big deal about his production the last two weeks (11 catches, 241 yards, 5 TDs). It’s amazing to me that more people are starting Hakeem Nicks (0 TDs this season) than Cooper. Get him in your lineup.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Percy Harvin MIN (24%, 9): Finally! Harvin is coming back to Seahawks just in time for a match-up vs his old team the Vikings. I hear Harvin has wanted to play the last few weeks but Pete Carroll is just being extra cautious. Annoying, but at least the wait is over.
Harry Douglas @TB (45%, 12): He’s cooled off after a hot start, but I think that has more to do with his opponents (Sea & Car) then his skill level. He still had 7 catches last week, so it’s not like Matt Ryan has forgotten about him. I think he’ll get over 100 yards against a mediocre Tampa pass defense. The Bucs have been moving Darrell Revis around on defense so don’t worry about him hounding Douglas all game.
TE:
Jordan Reed @PHI (69%, 12): After Jimmy Graham, Reed might be the next best TE in fantasy right now. I know it sounds crazy, but Reed actually has the most fantasy points of all TEs over the last 4 weeks.
Coby Fleener @TEN (43%, 7): His stats were decent last week (4-33-1), but the important thing is he had 10 targets. I think he will continue to be a big part of the passing game as Luck realizes DHB can’t catch and Fleener is his next best option after TY Hilton.
Jordan Cameron @CIN (45%, 9): Only 1 catch last week, as the Browns made an effort to get someone involved besides Carmeron & Josh Gordon. I think last week was a fluke and Cameron will be more involved this week. He caught 10 passes for 91 yards and a TD against Cincy earlier this season.