Sunday’s win over the Baltimore Ravens was HUGE for the Chicago Bears. How big? It improved their chances of making the playoffs by nearly 12%. The stats geeks at Football Outsiders are busy computing the odds of every team in the NFL to make the playoffs and other play0ff related stats.
The statistics are based on running 50,000 simulations of the schedule using each team’s DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value over Average) which is a lot of geek speak for each team’s rankings according to Football Outsiders. Let’s look at some of the interesting stats in their Week 11 post.
In the NFC North, the Detroit Lions have the highest probability of winning the division at 48% with the Bears second at 39.5% chance to winning the division. Obviously the Bears are at a big disadvantage behind the Lions since they have the head-to-head tiebreaker locked up over the Beloved.
The Lions loss at Pittsburgh was equally huge, dropping their odds a full 15%. They really blew an opportunity to separate themselves.
The Packers round out the odds of winning the NFC North with a 12.5% chance of taking the division. Without Aaron Rodgers, I wonder if it’s that good. Want to know Minnesota’s chances of winning the division? 0.0%. Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life.
The odds start to get a little better for the Bears to just to to the playoffs. They have an 11.4% chance of at least getting to Wild Card. Adding it up, the Bears have a 50.9% chance of making the postseason. The Lions have a 59.2% chance to make the playoffs, Jim Schwartz or not.