Fantasy Football Week 2: Start’em / Sit’em
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Last week: 17-7-3, Season: 17-7-3 (71%)
Week 1 Recap: Well at least I had a better week 1 than my Bears did. I came out of the gates strong with a 17-7-3 record which makes it 16 weeks in a row over .500. I’m bragging a little, but hey that’s pretty good, so if you took my advice last week and won your match-up then do me a favor and tell your friends to check out my picks this week (not the ones in your league, obviously!). My best Start’em picks of the week were Steve Smith (+13 over projection), Zach Ertz (+8), Andrew Hawkins (+7), and Carson Palmer (+8). I’m not normally a braggart, but three of those four guys were started in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues.
I was far from perfect in my Start’em picks though (9-6-2) and missed badly on Jordan Reed (-7), Jeremy Hill (-4) and Bishop Sankey (-3). Reed got hurt, but that has happened so often now that I should have known better and the rookie running backs both got way less touches than I expected. My Sit’em picks were much stronger (8-1-1) with my recommendation to sit Doug Martin (12 points less than projected, started in 89% of Yahoo leagues) the pick I am most proud of this week.
Healthy or not, Martin just isn’t an elite running back. I’ve gotten in heated arguments with fans of the Muscle Hamster, but outside of 4-5 games (out of 29) he’s looked like a little better version of Trent Richardson to me. I could be wrong, but if you have Martin I would trade him if he ever has a good game this year (week 4 @ATL?). My other noteworthy picks were sitting RG3 (-12), Sammy Watkins (-5) and a couple of old, slow running backs Stephen Jackson (-6) and MJD (-6).
We’ll see how week 2 goes, but I’m on a 16 week roll and feeling pretty good about this week’s picks despite the fact that I probably just jinxed myself with all the back patting. If you missed my week 1 post with the pick guidelines and qualifications, here is the link . Short version is that only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues are eligible for the Start’em picks and only players over 10% for the Sit’em picks. I’m using Yahoo’s default scoring projections (w .5 PPR) as my projection guidelines. The Start’em picks are players I think will outplay their projected line, while the Sit’em picks are players I think will fall short of their Yahoo projected total.
If you have questions about specific players, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section and I will get back to you before this weekends games (sorry ksully & jon!). Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week and go Bears!
Start’em
QB
Tom Brady @MIN (Started in 70%, 18 Projected points) – He sucked in week 1 (12 points, 51% completions) but it’s way to early to give up on Tom Brady this season. The Vikings D looked great against Rams backup QBs, but I’m not sold. They are young and not very talented on paper. I think Brady picks them apart this week and finishes with well above 20 fantasy points.
Russell Wilson @SD (39%, 16) – The Bolts gave up 29 rushing yards to Carson Palmer who is basically a statue. There should be plenty of running room for Wilson and while the Chargers defensive backfield looked improved, they were 29th in the NFL in pass defense last season. I think a breakout game is coming soon for Wilson and this could be it.
Jake Locker DAL (11%, 18) – I tabbed Locker as a sleeper this year and am feeling pretty good about it after one week. He put up 20+ against what used to be a stout Chiefs D last week and now gets possibly the worst defense in the league at home. I am starting Locker in three leagues this week, so clearly I am on board.
RB
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Terrance West NO (19% , 11) – Had an impressive debut with 100 yards on just 16 carries (6.3 ypc) and gets the start this week with Ben Tate hurt (already!). I think West is a solid start at Flex and maybe even RB2. He’s a shifty runner with great size.
Chris Johnson @GB (56%, 11) – After watching Marshawn Lynch run all over the Packers in week 1, I think any RB facing GB is worth consideration. Johnson led the Jets in carries in week 1 and finished 2nd in targets (5), so he should get enough touches this week to break double-digits even if he doesn’t score.
Pierre Thomas @BUF (26%, 10) – The Bills interior D-line is stout, but they have had plenty of injuries at linebacker so they can be exploited in the flats. Matt Forte had 8 catches for 87 yards vs the Bills in week 1 and Thomas could have similar success.
Shane Vereen @MIN (63%, 13) – Split time in the backfield with Ridley and finished with 7 carries to Ridley’s 8. The Pats didn’t run the ball much in a game they were losing, but I think 10-12 carries per game is a safe estimate for Vereen. The rushing yards are gravy as most of Vereen’s value is tied up in his receiving skills. Over the last year he has averaged just under 9 targets per game. With his runner / receiver versatility, I think Vereen is as close to a lock for 10+ per game as you can get at the RB position.
Super Sleeper (<10%)
Ahmad Bradshaw PHI (5%, 8) – The Colts may be figuring out what the rest of the world already knows, T-Rich blows. Bradshaw was got 45 snaps to Richardson’s 30, so he may be taking over as the lead back in the high-powered Colts offense. Granted he probably won’t be healthy all season, but enjoy it while it lasts.