Fantasy Football Week 6: Start ’em / Sit ’em

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Welcome to Fantasy Football Week 6 Start em / Sit em…

Last week: 18-13-4, Season: 71-45-11 (61%)

Week 5 Recap: So much for my hot streak (>70% last 2 weeks), but I was still well over .500 so nothing to be ashamed about. It was a weird week with some massive hits like Russell Wilson (+23), Andre Ellington (+16), Kendall Wright (+14), Pierre Garcon (-11), and Colin Kaepernick (-10), but also some embarrassingly bad misses like DeSean Jackson (+18), Pierre Thomas (+16), Stevan Ridley (+11), and Michael Floyd (-10).

I occasionally try to learn from my mistakes, so after two weeks of being way off on D-Jax, I’m giving him my official Start’em tag for as long as Kirk Cousins is the Redskins QB. Cousins has plenty of flaws, but he throws a nice deep ball and D-Jax proved last week against Seattle that he can get open against anyone.

A few other notes from week 5:

– Russell Wilson has solidified himself as an every week start and possibly the best QB IRL besides Peyton Manning.

– Andre Ellington got a fluke 81-yard TD late in the game and finally got a red zone carry, but I’m still worried about both his injury and his RB1 potential the rest of the year. The Cards O-line isn’t opening many running lanes and I’m not convinced Ellington can hold up with 20+ touches every week.

– Kendall Wright had a great game (2 TDs), but with Jake Locker hurt and rookie Zach Mettenberger potentially taking over I would try to move Wright ASAP. Mettenberger has possibly the best arm strength of any rookie QB, but struggles with short-to-mid range accuracy which is where Wright eats. I would trade him straight up for deep threat Justin Hunter if Mettenberger is the QB for the rest of the season.

– Don’t be tempted by Stevan Ridley‘s big game last week. You never know what Bill Belichick will do at the RB position and you can’t risk starting either back once the fantasy playoffs roll around. I would trade both Vereen and/or Ridley, if I still owned them in any leagues.

– I wouldn’t drop Saints RB Pierre Thomas, but don’t go out of your way to get him either if he was dropped in your league after being benched in week 4. The Saints are probably the most frustrating team besides the Pats when it comes to RB usage and there is no way to know if Pierre Thomas is going to score 20 or 2 on a weekly basis.

– Don’t give up on WR Michael Floyd. Rookie QB Logan Thomas was under center for most of week 5’s loss to the Broncos and he’s barely good enough to be on an NFL roster much less a starter. Floyd is still averaging just under 8 targets a game and once Carson Palmer (or even Drew Stanton) comes back Floyd will go back to being a legit WR2 in fantasy.

More from Bears Fantasy Football

• Justin Fields is showing that he is a major fantasy football riser
• Chicago Bears Fantasy Football: Should you draft Justin Fields?
• Two must-draft fantasy football players on the Chicago Bears
• 3 over/unders for Cole Kmet with Chicago Bears in 2022
• 5 Khalil Herbert over/unders in for Chicago Bears 2022

If you missed my week 1 post with the pick guidelines and qualifications, here is the link . Short version is that only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues are eligible for the Start’em picks and only players over 10% for the Sit’em picks. I’m using Yahoo’s default scoring projections (w .5 PPR) as my projection guidelines. The Start’em picks are players I think will outplay their projected line, while the Sit’em picks are players I think will fall short of their Yahoo projected total.

If you have questions about specific players, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section and I will get back to you before this weekends games. Good luck in your fantasy match-ups this week and go Bears!

Start’em

QB

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Jay Cutler @ATL (62%, 16) – He catches a lot of flack for the Bears 2-3 record, but Cutler has thrown at least 2 TD passes in every game this year, is running more than ever (22.5 rushing ypg over last 4 games), and has scored over 20 fantasy points every week so far. The Falcons D might be the worst one Cutler has faced so far and it’s a must win game for the Bears, so I am expecting another solid fantasy line from Smoking Jay.

Philip Rivers @OAK (60%, 16) – I’m not sure why Yahoo keeps projecting Rivers at under 20 fantasy points per game considering that he is on a 11 TD / INT roll over the last 4 games and is averaging over 300 yards passing over that same stretch. The Raiders defense is brutal and I think Rivers is going to put up another 300 yard, 2+ TD game.

Russell Wilson DAL (55%, 17) – If you watched the Monday night game, then you are starting Wilson no matter what. Outside of perhaps Peyton Manning, Wilson has been the most consistently good QB I have seen all season. Seattle doesn’t pass the ball as much as most teams, but Wilson put up 40 fantasy points on Monday night in a relatively low scoring game (27-17). He’s an every week starter regardless of match-up and I wouldn’t’ be surprised if Wilson ends up as a top 5 overall fantasy QB by the end of the season.

Tom Brady @BUF (40%, 13) – I’m not 100% sold despite Brady’s solid performance last week (292 yards, 2 TDs), but 13 projected points is an insult for a player with Brady’s talent. The Bills defense has been good, but not as good as the Bengals D which the Pats tore up on Sunday night. The key to their resurgence has been the 2-TE sets with Tim Wright playing the Aaron Hernandez role. Assuming they continue running those sets, I think Brady can come close to 20 points vs the Bills this week.

Eli Manning PHI (34%, 16) – Quietly the Giants offense has become pretty solid after two awful games to start the season. Eli is starting to flourish in the Giants new quick pass offense and the addition of rookie Odell Beckham will only help as he is ideally suited to that scheme. The Eagles pass defense is surprisingly bad and I could see this turning into a shootout with high fantasy scores for multiple players on both sides.

RB

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Doug Martin BAL (60%, 10) – Not an easy match-up for Martin, but he was the clear #1 RB in Tampa last week (70% of carries). Martin is only averaging 2.5 ypc this year, but the Bucs offense has been much better since Mike Glennon took over which should lead to more red zone chances for Martin. Just a hunch really, but I think Martin finds the end zone this week on top of 60-70 yards.

Brandon Oliver OAK (55%,13) – If you used your waiver priority or spent a bunch of your FAAB to get Oliver, then it’s really a no brainer to start him as he won’t have a better match-up all season.

Andre Williams PHI (47%,12) – He’s getting his first start of the season in relief of the injured Rashad Jennings and should get over 20 touches and all the goal line work.

Ben Tate PIT (47%,11) – The Browns are among the league leaders in rushing attempts and Tate looked surprisingly quick last week.

Bishop Sankey JAX (23%,8) – I thought last week was going to be Sankey’s breakout game, but this is an even better match-up as the Titans should be up big early and running the ball often to protect their lead. The Jags have given up the 3rd most points to fantasy RBs this year and this could be a big week for the rookie Sankey.

Sleepers (<10%)

Antone Smith CHI (7%, 4) – Has 4 TDs on only 17 touches and Falcons HC Mike Smith said this week that Smith has earned more carries. The Bears D is better against the run this year, but still susceptible to the big play due to their poor tackling.  Smith has been a big play machine with 2 carries and 2 catches of over 35 yards. I think he may break another long one this week, though I hope that I’m wrong.

Lorenzo Taliaferro @TB (3%,5) – The Ravens backfield preference has been hard to predict so far, but Taliaferro is their best inside runner and should eventually emerge with the #1 role. The Bucs have given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing RBs and I think Taliaferro ends up with a double-digit game this week.