Chicago Bears: Mock Draft Round 1
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
A lot will change between now and the NFL draft (April 30th). The Bears will bring back some of their free agents, let some go, sign new ones, etc. We don’t even know for sure what defensive scheme the Bears will be running under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Prospects will blow up the combine or their individual pro days and their projected draft slots could change dramatically in the next 3+ months. But as of today, Jan 27th, this would be my ideal draft for the Chicago Bears.
To determine which players would be available in each round I took the average draft slot for each player from the most respectable mock drafts I could find¹. Once I had the average draft slot, I used that to determine which players would be available when the Bears picked in each round. For example defensive end Randy Gregory had an average draft spot of the 4th pick in round 1, so he wasn’t an option for the Bears at pick 7. For each pick I took the player I liked best that met a specific need for the Bears. What I consider needs and what new GM Ryan Pace does are obviously going to differ, but this is how I hope things pan out.
For the purposes of this article, I am assuming that the Bears don’t make any trades, even though it was tempting to move them down in the first round to add picks and address their multiple needs. I didn’t do that, but I wouldn’t be upset if it happens in real life. I’ll start with round 1 today, then finish the rest of the draft as the week goes on.
Chicago Bears 1st round mock:
7.) Shane Ray, DE – Missouri
In Vic Fangio’s first draft as the 49ers defensive coordinator (2011), the Niners used the 7th overall pick to select an explosive edge rusher from Missouri, Aldon Smith. I’m not claiming Ray to be the second coming of Aldon Smith, but they have quite a few comparable traits mainly a lighting quick first-step. Fangio’s scheme uses OLBs differently than traditional 3-4s, he pares down their responsibilities to allow them to focus on rushing the passer from a stand-up DE position. It is similar to how the Seahawks use their LEO backer (Bruce Irvin) and the Broncos use Von Miller. NFL.com just posted a poll of various NFL exes on who Ray compares to in the NFL and both Miller and Irvin’s names came up. The pass-rush OLB position is one of the most important in Fangio’s scheme, which is why it was targeted early in his first Niners draft and could be again with the Bears.
The Bears do have some potential options at OLB in Fangio’s scheme like Christian Jones, Shea McClellin, and Cornelius Washington, but none of them have the upside to be a difference-making pass rusher like Ray does. To quote Mel Kiper and draftniks everywhere, you can never have too many pass rushers. Here is a breakdown of Ray’s attributes and skills:
Attributes – 6’3 | 245 | 4.54
Scouting report – Productive pass rusher who has an explosive first step and 4.5 closing speed. Ray is an elite athlete, rumored to run as fast as 4.4 with a 40-inch vertical, and a max bench of over 400 pounds. If he puts up those type of numbers at the combine, Ray may be gone by the time the Bears pick at 7. He shows great bend around the edge getting almost parallel to the ground, changes directions quickly without losing speed, has the closing burst to run down any QB, and has a non-stop motor. Most of Ray’s 14 sacks this year came on pure speed, athleticism, and pursuit. He has shown a few pass rush moves, but they will need to get better to beat NFL tackles. With his speed and first step he will get sacks in the pros, but developing a few go-to rush moves could make Ray an All-Pro.
Ray is a little shorter and lighter than the OLBs Fangio has used in the past, but he has enough size to be effective. He will make some plays against the run in pursuit, but like most pass rushers Ray struggles when teams run right at him. He needs to get better at shedding blocks and diagnosing plays, but has the quick burst, elite athleticism, and non-stop motor to be an impact pass rusher early in his career.
NFL ceiling – Von Miller
Others considered: DE Dante Fowler (Florida), S Landon Collins (Alabama), DT Danny Shelton (Washington), ILB Benardrick McKinney (Miss St), Vic Beasley (Clemson)
¹ Mock drafts used to determine average draft slot: CBS Sports (Rang, Brugler), WalterFootball, DraftTek, ESPN Insider (Kiper, McShay), NFL (Brooks), and SB Nation.