Chicago Bears: Over/Under 24 TDs for Mitch Trubisky

How many touchdowns will Chicago Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky throw in 2019?

Last season Mitch Trubisky threw 24 touchdowns for the Chicago Bears. Trubisky missed two games last season and was in the first year of a new offense. With that in mind, and with Trubisky entering his third year in the NFL it would likely be expected for Trubisky to increase his touchdown total, correct?

That is not what Mike Clay of ESPN.com had to say. Clay does the fantasy projections for one of the more popular platforms in America. However, he was not impressed with Trubisky, giving him 24 touchdowns once again in 2019.

It is hard to say that he will do anything but go over. There are a couple of arguments that can be made against him. To start, many compare the Bears success with a young quarterback to the Rams with Jared Goff. Goff broke out after an outdated coach gave him a poor rookie season.

However, it is worth noting that Goff did see a decrease in his touchdown rate the following season. That has to come with a huge caveat that despite throwing less TDs per attempt, he threw plenty more attempts, thus resulting in an increase from 28 to 32.

Considering Trubisky should play all 16 games, it is hard to justify a decrease in attempts. Even if he regressed in touchdown rate, the improvement in attempts would offset it and result in an increase.

The Bears moved on from Jordan Howard and got a runner that they trust as a scheme fit in David Montgomery. Could the Bears go more run-heavy, thus resulting in a lower rate and close enough pass attempts?

It is possible. However, remember that aside from being a scheme fit, one of the biggest reasons the Bears moved to Montgomery was his pass catching ability. This actually could result in more attempts and touchdowns.

The fact of the matter is that 28 is closer to an over/under than 24. Trubisky should certainly go under what looks like a modest projection.