The DeCon’s Fantasy Football Picks for Week 1

We are almost 24 hours away from the start of the 2010 NFL season.  I can almost smell the sod of Soldier Field as it is shredded by cleats because our ownership would prefer our offense to be The Sloppiest Show on Sod as opposed to The Greatest Show on Turf – Part Deux.  But, enough negativity, that smell also means fantasy football is nearly here.  You should have your drafts done by now, so I am going to give you my insights for Week 1.  Now if you will all kneel before the Altar of Fantasy Fortune, here we go…

But before I get to my picks, I have read and heard alot this week from colleagues about how this is Week 1 and you have to play your best players, blah, blah, blah.  My question is, how do you determine your best player?  Where you drafted him?  Team he plays for?  Stats from last year?  IQ?  SCREW IT!!!  Fantasy footbal is won by those who have a set and can make the tough decision and week 1 is no exception.  You have to look at matchups!  There are only a handful of players who I will exempt from this policy and they are as follows:  Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andre Johnson.  That’s it!  Sure there are other players you drafted in the first or second round that could enter the discussion and I am happy to debate it with you in the comments.  To give you a practical example, if you have a Ray Rice or a Shonn Greene on your team, do you start them this week?  It just so happens their teams square off on Monday night this week and I wouldn’t start either of them if you have a suitable back-up.  To make this even more real, I have Shonn Greene and Ahmad Bradshaw on 2 of my teams.  On both teams, I am sitting Greene and starting Bradshaw.  I drafted Greene in the 2nd round for both teams and Bradshaw much later, but Greene has to deal with the Ravens whereas Bradshaw gets to face the Panthers.  Matchup advantage goes to Bradshaw.  Some might say, “hedge your bet, start Greene on 1 team and Bradshaw on another” and I say that’s like kissing your sister…be a man, take a stand and, hell, if you’re wrong, it is only Week 1.

Now that I have that out of my system, here are some guys I like and guys I don’t:

Like

1. Ahmad Bradshaw vs Carolina – see above…I am putting my money where my mouth is on this one.
2. Cadillac Williams vs Cleveland – not only does he look like a man on a mission, but he is facing the Browns.
3. Kevin Kolb vs Green Bay – Sure Green Bay has a tough D, but Kolb might chuck it 50 times this week and that translates into mucho fantasy points.
4. Malcolm Floyd @ Kansas City – Malcolm WHO, you ask?  Well, this is gonna be Phillip Rivers new “go to” guy after Gates and he has the size and speed to put up some big numbers against an inexperienced KC secondary.
5. 49ers DST @ Seattle – Seattle has a chance to be just awful this season, predicated by issues on the O-line and Coach Singletary will have the boys fired up to drop Matt Hasselbeck’s pants down around his ankles.

Don’t Like

1. Owen Daniels vs Indy – There are questions about how much he may be able to play and I never like to hear that, especially if I thought Daniels would be a TE1 for my fantasy squad.
2. Shonn Greene vs Baltimore – see above.
3. Ray Rice @ NYJ – Rice comes close to the list of players you have to start each week regardless, but if you have other favorable matchups, you could be a genius if you choose wisely.
4. Joe Flacco @ NYJ – Another Raven to hesitate on.  I know this is Flacco’s year to “arrive,” but not on the road against the Jets on Monday night.
5. Bears DST vs Detroit – Crazy???  Maybe, but until the Bears D can prove they can get off the field on 3rd down, I won’t trust them and they don’t have anyone to contend with Megatron.  I am trying to do all us homers a favor here.  Believe me, I hope I am dead wrong!!!  Da Bears will still win my friends, I just see it as a 31-28 type affair.

How about Da Bears?

I am glad you asked.  While I don’t like the Bears D this week (I hope me bad mouthing them is just the proverbial boot in the ass they need), I love all their offensive players.  If you got ’em start ’em.  Well, let’s not get too crazy…to be more specific, I think you could do worse than:  Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Devin Hester and Johnny Knox with MAYBE a little love for Olsen, but I am curious to see how Martz uses him since the games are now “for real.”  Plus, my guy Boomer is playing me this week and he has Olsen starting, so I want to make sure he doesn’t stress over it.  You’re good, Boom, but…you will lose…

CAN I GET AN AMEN!?!?!?!

Hit me in the comments or at beargoggles.decon@gmail.com or @decon76 on Twitter if you have any need for fantasy advice!

The DeCon has spoken, so let it be written, so let it be done!