Handicapping NFL Week 13: Picks of the Week

By Bart

Quick Summary of Last Week: As much as I hated to pick the Viqueens to win last week, I often have to remind myself to pick with my head and not my heart.  I have a hard time with that with the Bears, so even deep down when I think they’re going to win, I’ll still pick against them because I think it is my heart telling me their going to win and not the brain.

Suggestion: if you utilize my weekly picks for your own pools or friendly wagers (which you should be doing by now for crying out loud), stay away from my Bears picks.  KC into Seattle was  no-brainer as that one became a pick you can sit back and relax and watch the dinero jump into your wallet.  Oakland, however, did its best to swipe that KC money right back out.  I even noted in my pick last week that I was hesitant to so quickly pick Oakland over Miami because I thought I might have been swayed by Miami’s poor showing against the Bears.  I did feel that Oakland at home is tough and that Miami wasn’t going to hand it to them the way they did.  I hate to see what San Diego does to Oakland this week if they play like that again.  How about the San Diego call against Indy?  Everyone in my confidence pool picked Indy.  That stems from not fully paying attention to what is happening this year and making picks based on past performances.  People must not feel the Charger surge coming. You think they would though, if they base their picks on previous years.  Oh well, on to week 13: WEEK 13 PICKS:

Green Bay -9 vs San Fran – As I’ve jumped off of the SanFran bandwagon, they’ve picked up a little steam, if you don’t look in between the lines.  Listen to this:  San Fran has won 3 of it’s last 4 games.  It is one game out of 1st place.  Alright, let’s break it down  little bit.  One game out of 1st place in the West is a 4-7 record.  That’s not parity, that’s crappy. San Fran beat Denver on a mush field in London or wherever the hell they played, had a  bye week and then beat the Rams by 3 at home (after a bye again as a reminder), lost at home by 21 to Tampa (21-0), and then took care of the high flying Cardinals on Monday night (in case you can’t hear it, that’s sarcasm).  Sound a little different when you hear a little more detail?  They’re coming off a short week and the Packers are at home coming off a tough loss to Atlanta.  Packers can’t fall 2.5 back of the Bears – they pound the 49ers.

Seattle-5 vs Carolina – Sorry Panthers, you are easy to pick on.  Last week I wrote that the 12th man wouldn’t have much to be loud about, and they didn’t.  My call is opposite this week.  Carolina has to travel across country to go play in a loud stadium in a game that Seattle desperately needs in an elementary division.  These are games you simply cannot lose at home and Seattle knows that and takes care of business.

Falcons -2 vs Tampa – I feel about Tampa Bay what Vegas feels about the Bears.  I don’t respect them and don’t feel that they are even going to make the Playoffs.  Granted, they’re better than I thought, but this isn’t the year for them.  They are looking for a signature game, a la Bears victory over Philly.  This would be the game to do it, considering they are 0-4 in attempts to beat teams with winning records.  Falcons establish themselves again as team to beat in the NFC South and cover the 2 point spread on the road.

Upset Special of the Week:

Jaguars +3 vs Tennessee –In a critical game in the AFC South, Jaguars look to avenge a big loss to Tennessee earlier in the year.  The South is ripe for the taking with the Colts struggling.  I’ve always been a fan of Tennessee because of Jeff Fisher and Vince Young (I followed Vince while he was the QB of the Longhorns).  However, their recent QB struggles coupled with the Jaguars consistent play by Garrard and MJD’s running will help keep the Jags atop the division, whether tied or by their lonesome.


Bears -5 vs Lions – Ok, remember what I wrote earlier about not using my Bears pick of the week – scratch that.  I think as Bears fans, we always say to ourselves, “Well, be careful of the Lions.  They”re better, they can sneak up on you.”  There is some truth to that, especially if you look at Game 1 of this season.  Every week in the NFL, someone good loses to someone bad. But, gosh dammit, I’m not committing to that pessimism this go around.  The Bears are going to open up a can on the Lions.  This is not the same Bears team as week 1.  I will also tell you that this Lions team is worse. Do you honestly think that the Lions will score more than 10 points with Stanton at the helm against this Defense?  Do you think that the Bears will score more than 2 TDS?  That’s how you have to look at it when picking against the spread.  (Thinking like that, you may want to sneak a peek at the over/under too!)  Notice that this spread has moved 1.5 points already this week – a lot of money going the Bears way.  That’s big hitter gambler money going on the Bears to move those lines.  I’d climb aboard if I were you.  I am.

Last Week: 3 Picks:  2-1   Upset Special: 1-0   Bears Pick:  0-1

Season: 3 Picks: 20-11-2    Upset Special: 6-5   Bears Pick: 3-6-1