Handicapping NFL Week 9: Picks of the Week
By Bart
OUCH! That’s all I can say. But, when you take the risk of putting your picks in print, it’s very possible that you may just have a week like I had last week. For the last two weeks, I’ve gone 4-1. In the gambling world, my even out came last week with a very disappointing 0-5. You never want to have a week like that. I can stomach a 2-3 day, but when you do an “o-for” that’s rough. However, it leads to an intersting concept about gambling. I can admit a loss. How many times do you hear people say, “I went 3-0 on the afternoon games.” What they tend to leave out is that they went 1-5 on othe noon games. Have you ever had a friend to went to Vegas and said that they won $300 playing craps? They tend to leave out that they lost $500 playing blackjack. Well, I’ll do both. I’ll let you know when I’m doing well and I’ll let you know when I #%$% the bed. You have to look at your overall to determine if you’ve had a good year or not. Right now, I’m down a game and juice, not terrible, but not plus. If you live and die with your week to weeks, then I’d suggest not playing the football spreads.
SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK: When over 350 picks get lost in your survival pool, you know that it was a crazy week. If the Giants and Baltimore lost, people’s football worlds truly would’ve been rocked. I sweat out Baltimore’s come from behind win since they represented by last survival pool pick in a very large league. What can you say about last week? That’s why they play the games, right? Baltimore got in trouble by giving up a special teams TD and fumbling near their goal line to give AZ 14 points. If I knew those 2 things would happen, I certainly wouldn’t anticipate them covering. I didn’t see the game, but who would’ve thought that the RAMS would shut down the Saints – that’s impressive. Hey NO, how about running it a little? Pittsburgh did a nice job against New England. That’s why I normally roll with the Defenses, made a mistake last week. The Giants – they’re simply annoying. I hope the Bears go to the playoffs and play them. They lose to Seattle at home and then almost lose to the Dolphins? What’s up with that? Lastly, Jacksonville missed pushing by a hook. That just about sums up the week. Onto Week 9:
49ers (-4) vs. Washington – the over/under on this game is set at 37.5 which predicts a lower-scoring game. You should always keep an eye on that because in theory, that would mean about a 21-17 49er victory. Does that sound right? I think it’ll be within a TD and will be a lower scoring game, but I see the 49ers covering. Frank Gore anyone? I’ll take him (my 2nd RB in Fantasy).
Chiefs (-4) vs Miami – I doubt you’ll ever see me doing this again….picking not 1, but 2 games with a 4 point spread. I believe I wrote earlier that I’m not a fan of this particular number, but I’ll tell you why I like the Chiefs this week. What is the betting public doing? They saw Miami hang tough with NY last week (and you know how I feel about them) and they see this game and think, “Hmm, the Chiefs aren’t as good as NY, I’ll take Miami to cover.” No! No! No! Chiefs are tough at Arrowhead, Miami still may be playing, but they are not a good football team. This will be a 7-10 point cover.
Raiders -7 vs Denver – there are a lot of difficult spreads to pick this week and I’m not sure if I’m a little gun shy. For example, Dallas should win – but you never know how they are going to show up (-11). NO (-9) vs Bucs – I’m very confident in NO winning this game, but 9 makes me a little nervous against a pretty good Bucs team. So – I’m opting for the Raiders because Denver stinks, it is in Oakland, and Oakland has had 2 weeks to prep. The two weeks will help Oakland plan for Tebow running (because he can’t throw) and has also given Palmer time to get connected with the playbook.
UPSET SPECIAL
Philly (-9) vs the Bears –if the Bears lose on Monday, it will be one of those bad losses. If they fall behind and Martz goes into crazy mode, the Bears could struggle and Philly will cover. I’m hoping that Philly spent their efforts beating up on their rival last week and they come out flat, but I doubt it. The Bears have suprised me in the past in these big games where they are dogs – so I’m hoping that they do it again. I just think it is going to be one of two things, the Bears win a close one or they lose by double digits. I’ll pick Philly and hope I’m wrong.
SEASON TOTALS: PICK 3 (9-9-1); UPSET SPECIAL (3-3); BELOVED (2-3); TOTAL: (14-15-1)