Top NFL picks against the Spread: Handicapping Week 4


It was nice to get back  on  track with a nice Thursday Night cover.  As I alluded to, at the beginning of the season, I made a friendly wager that the Cleveland Browns would have less than 5 wins and they’re well on their way.  So, as I shared, a lot of times those division games play closer than you may expect.  All signs pointed to a Baltimore blowout, but the weather played into it, familiarity, and game-planning.  Let’s hope I can find some more of those games on Sunday.


Chargers-1 @ Chiefs – Chiefs are always tought at Arrowhead, but their win over the Saints isn’t that impressive and it’s time for a letdown.  The 2-1 Chargers come into Arrowhead and win one against a division rival.  I like the low spread on this one because really we’re just looking for the win.

49ers-4.5 @ Jets – despite being very upset with them for getting me knocked out of my survival pool with that terrible loss to the Vikings, I’m confident the 49ers are going to bounce-back against the Revis-less Jets.  I like the fact that the 49ers opted not to fly back home and practice in Ohio this week to prevent that cross-country lag issue.  It worked well for them last year and it will again this year as the 49ers re-establish their dominance.

Patriots -3.5 vs Buffalo – The over/under on this game has been set at 50.5, meaning Vegas is anticipating a 27-24 game.  I hate giving up points when Defenses are not good (um, New England), but I always like betting on the Patriots because their offense when clicking will just keep putting point up against you.  Besides, if it is a close game at the end, the Patriots won’t feel secure with a little lead with the craziness in the NFL as late, they’ll want to put the Bills away.  I’ll take the Pats even if it is on the road.


Jacksonville +1 vs. Cincinnati – I should’ve used Cleveland as both my Thursday Night game and Upset Special, but I’m not rolling like that this year for statistical purposes.  Anyway, in case you haven’t noticed, Cincinnati is in the basement when it comes to run defense.  This is going to be the MJD show and Jacksonville wins at home against a similiarly poor football team.  I’m nervous being I want to go as long as I can without losing my UPSET SPECIAL pick.  It’s tough laying it on the Jags, but their defense and MJD will pull through for me and their fans.


Cowboys -3.5 vs Bears – I didn’t feel good about this one in the beginning of the season and unfortunately, the Bears haven’t changed my mind.  I’m hoping this is the game it all starts to click and we all say, “There’s the Bears we all pegged to go to the Superbowl” but I don’t see a 44-0 win in the Big D this week.  Don’t ever confuse my picks with my heart, but until the Bears start putting in some better play-calling, I’m not picking them to win against a similiar team on the road.  Here’s what I’d like to see: Efficient running, 4 WR sets with quick hits, slants, and some TE passes.  I have Brandon Marshall on my fantasy team, so believe me, I like the Targets.  But I know he’ll get me a lot more once teams realize that Jay likes to throw to some other people on the team too.  Short quick routes, people, slow the pass rush.  If you don’t have a line that can block long, then get the ball out of your QBs hands faster!  Sorry, I’ll get off my OC soapbox now.

SEASON: Pick “3 ”  – 3-5-1       Upset Special:  3-0      Beloved:  3-1  Thursday Night 1-1