Fantasy Football Week 13: Start’em / Sit’em
Last week: 14-14-1: Season: 133-98-37
Week 12 Recap: Second .500 week in a row. Boring. My string of good Sit picks and bad Starts was flippped last week as I finally predicted some breakout games (Kaep, Woodhead) but I was wrong on all 5 of my WR sit calls. Consistent disappointments like Wallace, Boldin, and even Dwayne Bowe had touchdowns week. Even the sun shines on a dogs ass some days.
My biggest mistake last week was underestimating the Chargers offense in a tough match-up at KC. Who saw that one coming? I recommended benching all of your Chargers except Woodhead and I was wrong on all of them, but right on Woodhead at least. I predicted a big day for the Pats offense as well and was right in theory, just wrong on who I expected to benefit (Amendola, Dobson). They are a hard team to predict, though I did get the Vereen start right.
With bye weeks a thing of the past, you should have a pretty good idea what your starting lineup looks like the rest of the way, but if you are on the fence about who to start keep reading and feel free to hit me up in the comments or on twitter with any specific questions.
Note: Only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues will be listed in Start’em section. These recommendations are for players you may be on the fence about that I think will over (Start) or under (Sit) perform their projections (Yahoo).
*Sorry for the late post. Airport WiFi blows.
Start’em:
QB:
Colin Kaepernick STL (59%, 16): Last week was only the 3rd time all year that Kaepernick threw for over 200 yards. So why am I recommending a start this week? Over the last two games Kaepernick has 5 TDs passes, he’s averaging 6 runs per game, his go-to WR Michael Crabtree is back, and the Rams secondary is exploitable. I think Kaepernick will get you 20+ this week.
Carson Palmer @PHI (15%, 15): After ripping Palmer for the last two seasons, it feels wrong to recommend starting him this week. I’m going against my gut instinct on this one because Palmer has thrown 2 TD passes in each of the last 4 games, he’ s averaged 366 passing yards over the last two, Philly’s pass defense stinks, and my gut is occasionally wrong.
RB:
Rashad Jennings DAL (62%,15): The Cowboys have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, Jennings has the more yards from scrimmage than an other RB the last four weeks, Raiders coaches are adamant that Jennings is RB1 regardless of McFadden’s availability, and it’s fun to start guys playing on Thanksgiving.
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Danny Woodhead CIN (55%, 11): Woodhead only has two games all season with under 10 fantasy points, he’s averaging just over 6 targets a game , and is catching 86% of them. He’s a safe bet to top his 11 projected this week.
Shane Vereen HOU (41%,13): He’s led the Pats in targets in all three games he’s played this year (32 total). He’s a lock for double digits in PPR leagues and with the other Patriot RBs fumbling away their playing time, Vereen has a chance to steal a portion of the carries as well.
Gio Bernard @SD (36%,11): Gio has been hit or miss all year depending on how many touches the Bengals decide to give him. It’s frustrating that a plodder like BGJE is getting more carries than the explosive rookie, but I have a hunch this week it will be Gio that carries most of the load in a high scoring match-up verse the Chargers.
Montee Ball @KC (14%,7): Knowshon Moreno has a “significant bone bruise” and is questionable for Sunday’s match-up with the Chiefs. Even if Moreno plays, I expect Ball to get more carries than usual. The Chiefs run defense has struggled a bit lately and have given up over 100 yards on the ground in each of the last three games. Ball is a must-start if Moreno is out. If Moreno is active, Ball is a borderline flex play.
WR:
Harry Douglas @BUF (59%,13): Douglas should be started in every PPR league. He’s averaging over 7 catches a game since Julio Jones got hurt and is Ryan’s go-to WR.
Dwayne Bowe DEN (54%,10): 2 weeks in a row with a TD for Bowe and a match-up this week that will require KC to throw the ball to keep up with Denver’s explosive offense. I’m not expecting a huge game, but a repeat of the 4-57-1 line he put up two weeks ago against Denver is certainly possible.
Kendall Wright @IND (41%,10): Had his best game of the season last week with 6 catches for 1o3 and a TD. He’s been around 10 points every week this year and his numbers have gotten better since Fitzpatrick took over. He’s averaging around 13 fantasy points a game over the last 4 weeks.
Riley Cooper ARI (24%,10): Don’t sleep on Cooper because of his bad game before the bye week (3-37). He’s still Foles go-to guy and with DeSean Jackson drawing Patrick Peterson’s attention this week, Cooper could have a monster game.
Nate Burleson GB (20%,11): Matt Stafford finally has another option besides Megatron and Burleson should get plenty of targets with Johnson being double teamed constantly. Burleson was productive in his first game back last week 7-77 and should have at least that verse a depleted Packers defense on Thanksgiving.
Stevie Johnson ATL (11%,10): It’s been a rough year for Stevie, but don’t forget he had three 1,000+ yard season in a row coming into 2013. He’s finally healthy and EJ Manual is no Joe Montana, but he’s considerably more talented than Buffalo’s recent starters Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel. Johnson is a sleeper, but I’m expecting 15+ fantasy points this week.
TE:
Coby Fleener TEN (48%,9): He has more targets the last three weeks (28) than any Colts receiver and caught his 4th TD off the season last week. Fleener is a solid TD1 for the rest of the season.
Martellus Bennett @MIN (44%,8): The Bears defense can’t stop anybody (even Christian Ponder), so the Bears will have to throw to keep up and Bennett will see some of those passes. He scored last week and had a second touchdown called back due to a questionable penalty. I think he’ll find the end zone again this week.
Delanie Walker @IND (31%,9): Mediocre week 12 (5-46), but still had 9 targets which is his average since Fitzpatrick took over at QB. He’s going to keep getting looks and should be in the 10-15 fantasy point range this week.
Ladarius Green CIN (1%,7): After spending most of the season watching from the sidelines, the Chargers have made an effort to get Green the ball the last two weeks (10 targets) and Green is making the most of it. He runs like a WR and had a 60 yard TD last week.