Fantasy Football Week 15: Start’em / Sit’em
Last week: 14-13-4: Season: 165-125-42
Week 14 Recap: Another week barely in the black, but that’s 13 weeks in a row without a losing record. I was patting myself on the back about my call to bench Tom Brady at the end of the 3rd quarter when he only had 6 fantasy points. Glad I waited to brag on Twitter because Brady had 18 fantasy points in the 4th quarter. Almost my best call of the season. I did have a pretty good call on starting McCown (43 points, +23 over projected) over Brady (24, even). Starting Montee Ball (+9) and Woodhead (+10) while sitting Fred Jackson (-9) and RG3 (-6) also turned out well.
My worst calls last week were sitting Colston (+20), Cameron (+14), and Streater (+12). Colston hadn’t cracked 50 yards in three weeks, Cameron hadn’t had ten fantasy points in a game since week 8, and I was still pissed at Streater for losing me a playoff battle the week before. I benched Shorts (12 points) for Streater (6 points) and lost by 3.
If your still alive, then you’re in the playoffs and have money riding on your decisions this week; Take a look my record for the season, have faith that you’re in good hands, and check out my start’em / sit’em picks this week.
Note: Only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues will be listed in Start’em section. These recommendations are for players you may be on the fence about that I think will over (Start) or under (Sit) perform their projections (Yahoo).
Start’em
QB:
Phillip Rivers @DEN (51%, 20): Averaging just under 300 yards passing per game over the last three and just over 2 TDs a game during that same stretch. This should be a shoot-out and I think Rivers will finish with closer to 30 points than 20.
Matt Ryan WAS (56%, 17): The Redskins defense made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana last week and even with the Falcons struggling, Ryan should be able to put up 20+ easy.
Matt Flynn @DAL (2%, 13): Speaking of bad defenses, Josh McCown just threw for 348 and 4 TDs against the Cowboys D. Even noodle-armed Matt Flynn should be able to put up 200+ yards with a couple of TDs. I’m calling a 20 point fantasy game for Flynn.
RB:
Shane Vereen @MIA (62%,15): He’s averaging 11 targets a game since he came back and with Gronk out Vereen’s targets could increase the rest of the way.
Steven Jackson WAS (61%, 13):As I mentioned earlier, the Redskins defense sucks. They are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs and S-Jax has actually looked decent the last two weeks.
Danny Woodhead @DEN (49%,10): I think the Bolts will have to throw often to keep up with the Broncos and Woodhead is going to catch a bunch of dump off passes.
Montee Ball SD (22%, 9): As expected the Broncos are resting Moreno more often down the stretch and Ball is taking advantage of the opportunity. He’s averaging 6.8 YPC over the last three games and has three TDs over the last four weeks.
Chris Ogbonnaya CHI (7%,12): The Bears have given up 6 consecutive 100-yard rushers. The Browns haven’t had a 100-yard rusher all season. Something has to give and I’m pretty sure it’s going to be the Bears defense. Crap.
WR:
Marques Colston @STL (62%,10): His production has been inconsistent all year, but his targets haven’t been. He’s averaging 8 targets a game over the last 5 so he’s a safe bet to at least get enough looks to be productive. He looked quicker last week than he has all season, so I’m thinking maybe he wans’t 100% healthy mid-season when he was struggling. I’m playing against him in a couple of leagues this week, so I hope I’m wrong.
Roddy White WAS (61%, 13): Finally. For the first time all year, White looked like the guy who has averaged 102 catches over the last three years. Easy match-up this week and should have a big day.
Riley Cooper @MIN (52%, 11): Hasn’t scored a TD in three weeks, but has averaged just over 7 targets during that time and has a great match-up this week against an awful Vikings secondary.
Cordarrelle Patterson PHI (21%,10): The Vikings are doing whatever they can to get Patterson the ball. He’s averaging just under 8 targets a game, getting the occasional handoff, and returns kicks & punts. He’s one of the most explosive players in the league and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Patterson had his best receiving game of the year last week (5-141-1) and the sky is the limit for this kid.
Michael Crabtree @TB (12%,10): Doubled his targets (8) from his season debut in week 13 (4) and should regain his role as Kaepernick’s go-to WR this week. I’m not worried about Revis.
TY Hilton HOU (51%,10): Colts coaches are saying all the right things about getting Hilton more involved in the offense. I think Hilton breaks out of his slump this week with 100+ yards and a TD.
TE:
Jordan Cameron CHI (60%,11): The Bears have struggled covering TEs all season (6th most TE points allowed) and Cameron is coming off a huge game last week (9-121-1).
Dennis Pitta @DET (18%,9): Had 11 targets in his first game back from injury. Flacco’s safety valve should get a lot of looks with Flacco under constant pressure from the Lions fierce pass rush.
Delanie Walker AZ (17%,10): The Cardinals give up the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends and Walker has been one of Fitzpatrick’s favorite targets since he took over at QB. Not counting last week’s game that he left early due to injury, Walker has averaged 9 targets per game since Fitzpatrick took over.