Chicago Bears – Free Agency Targets (Part 1)
Tier 3 – Young players with upside ($3-$6M): Spending free agent money on players over 30 rarely works out well in the end, but if a team can identify a young player who is on the cusp of greatness? That’s how you win in free agency. Unfortunately there are only a few of those players per year. Here are a few that I think have a shot to make the leap in the next year or two.
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DT Earl Mitchell, Texans (26, $4M) – I’ve been on Mitchell since the beginning of the off-season and think he’s a great fit for the Bears scheme. He’ a quick, disruptive DT who actually reminds me a lot of… Henry Melton. Mitchell has shown steady improvement over his first three seasons in the league until the last 3rd of 2013 when he began playing at a pro bowl level. His impact was lost in the mire that was the Texans season, but that could work in the Bears favor and keep his price at a reasonable level. Mitchell can generate a pass rush up the middle while not being a liability vs the run. He is the perfect fit for the 3-technique DT, the position that Phil Emery calls “the engine of the defense” and paired with potential first round draft pick Aaron Donald could give the Bears a dynamic pass rushing combo in the middle. Opinions on Mitchell are all over the place; Bill Polian has him ranked as the top free agent DT while CBS Sports has him as the 15th ranked DT with a backup grade and WalterFootball.com has him as the 36th ranked free agent DT. I’m not sure what they are seeing, I have Mitchell ranked 3rd at DT behind Linval Joseph and Henry Melton. I would go up to $5M per for Mitchell, but hopefully the Bears can get him for $4M or less. I think he has more upside than anyone on this list and also fits the Bears scheme better so am making him my top Bears target for this tier.
DE Everson Griffen, Vikings (26, $5.5M) – For a guy that has played less than half of the Vikings defensive snaps the last two seasons, his 15 sacks is excellent. The flip-side is that Griffen hasn’t been asked to do anything expect rush the passer. For the price the Bears would have to pay to get Griffen, he’s going to have to be more than just a 3rd down pass rush specialist. Can he stop the run? Does he have the stamina to be a 3-down DE? Those are scary questions for the team shelling out $5-6M for Griffen’s services. It’s also tempting to look at the stats he put up in less than half the defensive snaps and imagine what they would like if he played most of the game. Griffen would be a risky signing for the Bears, but the upside is there and I can see why they might be tempted enough to pull the trigger in a market short on pass rush talent.
UPDATE: The Vikings re-sign Griffen this morning (3/9) for 5 yrs, $42.5 M. Wow. This free agent market is officially out of control. $8M+ for a guy who was a situational pass rusher last season? What is Michael Bennett going to get? 12M per? More?
CB Walter Thurmond, Seahawks (27, $4.5M) – Aggressive corner whose biggest weakness (straight-line speed) would be masked in the Bears zone scheme. The Bears have good depth at corner with Frey and Hayden, but both of those guys are average starters at best. Thurmond would give the Bears a #2 CB with all-pro potential if he can stay healthy and out of trouble.
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MLB Perry Riley, Redskins (25, $4M) – Solid MLB who I think would be better off in a 4-3 scheme with some protection from the DTs. Riley has good enough sideline-to-sideline speed, has great instincts, is decent in coverage and is a sure tackler. The Bears need help in the middle, it was a sieve last season. Riley isn’t a flashy player but would be an improvement over bringing back DJ Williams or giving Bostic another shot. He’s only 25 and in a different scheme I think he has borderline pro bowl potential. Riley was a stud in 2012, but had a down year in 2013 so that could lower his price enough to make sense for the Bears.
S Mike Mitchell, Panthers (27, $3.5M) – Another guy who I have been all over since the beginning of free agency as a good fit for the Bears. Mitchell is probably most famous for being drafted about 3-4 rounds early by Al Davis , but has become a very solid NFL safety. Mitchell has great speed and is best suited for the free safety position, but has played both extensively and could fit at whatever position the Bears need more. He ran a 4.40 40-time before he was drafted, so he has the range to play free safety but is also a sure tackler if he ends up at strong safety. Considering the Bears have no starting caliber safeties right now, a guy like Mitchell who is competent at both safety positions has plenty of value. He also has improved over the last two seasons and at 27 still has some upside.
Recap: $15M
DE Lamarr Houston – $8M
S Chris Clemons – $3M
DT Earl Mitchell $4M
Part 2: Post-hype, Veteran discounts, & Depth signings coming tomorrow (3/10)
Twitter: @MikeFlannery_