Fantasy Football – Rookie QB Breakdown

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13.) A.J. McCarron, Bengals:

Playing time – This pick made no sense to me. The Bengals have a smart, game manager type QB in Andy Dalton who has struggled to put the team on his back and win games with his arm when needed. So they draft another smart, game manager type QB who isn’t going to be able to win games with his arm? McCarron might get some playing time if Dalton continues to struggle in big games, but I don’t think it will be until 2015.

Fantasy outlook – The Bengals have an impressive collection of offensive weapons, so many that noodle-armed Andy Dalton is borderline viable for fantasy purposes. If McCarron were to take over I think his numbers would be similar to Dalton’s perhaps with a few less yards and interceptions. He is a solid decision maker and can make most of the throws though his arm doesn’t have the zip you want in an NFL QB. The Bengals signed Jason Campbell as their back-up this year so McCarron is a long-shot to see the field, but as most Bears fans know, Campbell is a bum. If Dalton is out for an extended period of time McCarron might get a shot when the Bengals realize that Campbell was a bad investment.

14.)  Logan Thomas, Cardinals:

Playing time –  Carson Palmer is a statue in the pocket and the Cardinals O-line is inconsistent at best, which is a bad combination for Palmer’s long-term health. The Cards signed Drew Stanton to be Palmer’s back-up and he would probably have to go down as well for Thomas to get any snaps in the 2014 season. Palmer is entering into the last year of his contract and will be 35 next year, so his time in AZ could be nearing it’s end. Whether Thomas will be ready to take over by 2015 is another question, but regardless the Cards might be looking for a replacement next year and Thomas will at least be in the mix if Bruce Arians can fix Thomas’ footwork and mental issues. Thomas is a long-shot to see the field in 2014.

Fantasy outlook –  Thomas has all the physical gifts teams look for in a fantasy QB, so he deserves some attention. He has great size, a cannon arm and can run better than expected for his size, but he struggles with the mental part of the game. Thomas takes way too long to make decisions which leads to forced passes and too many sacks. Maybe noted QB guru Bruce Arians can teach him the game and unlock his massive potential, but I think it’s a long shot. Arians does like the deep ball and Thomas can sling it, so some future playing time could lead to some big plays and gaudy stats, but I think he will always be INT prone. Thomas has no fantasy value this season, but has a chance for the 2015 job if the Cards don’t re-sign Palmer.

15.) James Franklin, Lions:

Playing time – The Lions lost solid back-ups Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton, so they are a Stafford injury away from being in serious trouble at the QB position. I’m not a huge fan of Franklin, but the depth chart behind Stafford consists of Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Clemons, so he has a shot to be in the mix this year.

Fantasy outlook – Franklin is very athletic with both good speed (981 rushing yards, 15 rush TDs in 2012) and a strong right arm. Franklin has had trouble staying healthy but has been very productive when on the field (70 career touchdowns). He throws a nice deep ball and shows enough flashes of accuracy to think that he could improve with some coaching. With the Lions wealth of weapons (Megatron, Tate, Ebron, Bush) whichever QB is on the field has a chance to have fantasy value and due to a lack of depth behind Stafford, that could end up being Franklin if Stafford ever gets hurt.

16.) Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots:

Playing time – None, if Tom Brady stays healthy. Current back-up Ryan Mallet has thrown 4 passes in 3 years and is still on the roster as the #2 behind Brady. Mallet will be a free agent next year, so Garoppolo could move up but still will be stuck behind Brady in 2015

Fantasy outlook – Unless Garoppolo is traded in the next couple of years or Brady gets hurt, I don’t see him playing any time soon.

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17.) Brett Smith, Buccaneers:

Playing time – The Bucs are set with free agent signing Josh McCown and 2nd year QB Mike Glennon. Smith is an intriguing talent who I thought would get drafted but he’s not likely to see any playing time this year.  Josh McCown will be 35 this season and is only signed for 2 years and there are still rumors swirling of the Bucs shopping Mike Glennon, so there is an outside chance that if Smith plays well he could be in the mix when McCown’s contract is up in 2016.

Fantasy outlook – It would take multiple injuries for Smith to see the field this year, but he has enough talent to be an impact fantasy player if ever given a chance. He has excellent pocket awareness and can run when the pocket collapses. Smith is a gun-slinger type who is capable of big games and terrible ones. A couple of years on the bench to smooth the rough edges of his game and he might be an NFL starter down the road. He’s a name to keep tabs on in deep dynasty leagues.

18.) Dustin Vaughan, Cowboys:

Playing time – With Kyle Orton announcing his retirement over the weekend, Vaughan suddenly has a chance to stick on the Cowboys roster. They traded for Browns 1st round bust Brandon Weeden, so I’m assuming he’s going to make the roster as the #2 QB. At worst Vaughan should end up on the Cowboys practice squad and is a good long-term prospect. Anyone that has seen Weeden play knows that he sucks, so if Vaughan shows promise he could move into the #2 role by next year and Romo is already 34. It’s not too much of a stretch to think Vaughan could be the Cowboys starter in 2016.

Fantasy Outlook – Has great size (6’5, 235) and has quicker feet than expected for a big man. His arm is what will give him a chance to play in the league though. Vaughan put up Peyton Manning numbers in DII last year (5,041, 53 TDs, 67% comp), has a cannon, and throws a sweet deep ball. He’s making a major jump in competition, but is an interesting developmental project. Romo’s old and Weeden blows, so players in dynasty leagues should keep an eye on Vaughan’s progress.

19.) Stephen Morris, Jaguars:

Playing time – The Jags just re-signed Chad Henne and drafted QB Blake Bortles 3rd overall so Morris is at best the 3rd string QB. He is the best runner of the three so he might get some wildcat type snaps but that’s about it. Bortles is the clear QB of the future so Morris’ best bet to see the field is to play well in the pre-season and get traded or released and end up somewhere else.

Fantasy outlook – Zilch.

20.) Bryn Renner, Broncos: 

Playing time – Peyton Manning isn’t losing his job anytime soon, but he’s already discussing retirement so may only have a year or two left. Brock Osweiler is next on the depth chart and last year’s 7th round pick Zac Dysert is on the roster as well, so Renner has a steep slope to climb if he is going to make the roster much less get any playing time.

Fantasy Outlook – Renner has good size (6’3, 228) is very accurate and had a good enough arm before his recent shoulder surgery. If he didn’t lose any arm strength, he has the tools to make it in the league, but it may be with another team because the Broncos are set for the short-term at least.

21.) Connor Shaw, Browns: 

Playing time – It would take multiple injuries (Hoyer, Manziel, Thigpen) for Shaw to see the field.

Fantasy outlook – Nill.

Twitter: @MikeFlannery_