Fantasy Football – Overall Rookie Rankings
Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports
16.) Storm Johnson, Jaguars
Playing time – With Jags legend MJD now a Raider, the running back position is a free for all in Jacksonville. The Jags brought in Toby Gerhart in free agency and he is slated as the #1 RB on the depth chart, but the other two RBs in camp (Jordan Todman & Denard Robinson) are better suited as back-ups. Gerhart has had some experience as the lead back in Minnesota when AP went down and showed flashes of lead back ability, but the Vikings have one of the best run-blocker O-lines in the league and those wide running lanes aren’t going to be there with the Jags. It will be interesting to see if Gerhart has the juice to succeed as the main option. If he can’t Storm Johnson will be the next man in line for a shot. Even as a back-up he should still get 8-10 carries per game and is a competent receiver out of the backfield so he could catch a few balls as well.
Fantasy Outlook – I’m making a bold prediction right now that Storm Johnson finishes in the top five for offensive rookie of the year. I know top 5 isn’t the boldest thing you heard today, but for a 7th round pick that would be a great season for Johnson. He has the size to hold up as a workhorse back (6’0, 210), has excellent vision, can break tackles, catch the ball out of backfield, and has underrated shiftiness. He’s not a burner so won’t be breaking many long runs and his pass blocking needs work if he’s going to be a 3-down back, but the potential is there for a 1,000 yard, 50 catch, 10+ TD season if he wins the job. About half of those numbers is a more realistic expectation, but if he can beat out Gerhart then he has RB2 potential.
Auction value – Re-draft $3, Keeper $8
2013 Statistical comparison – Donald Brown
Draft him ahead of – David Wilson, Latavius Murray
17.) Tre Mason, Rams
Playing time – Zac Stacy is the clear #1 in STL, but Isaiah Pead has been a disaster as his back-up and Benny Cunningham looked good at times last year (against the Bears at least) but is a similar back to Stacy. Mason has better speed than both and could see the field as a change of pace back this year. He’s stronger than your typical 3rd down back, and has an intriguing mix of power and speed that made him my #1 RB in this year’s draft. I think Mason is more talented than Stacy and if he can prove it as the season wears on he could carve out enough carries to be useful for fantasy purposes.
Fantasy outlook – Mason could be one of those late round picks that will require patience. As the season progresses I think Mason will see a bigger and bigger role and by the last quarter of the season (fantasy playoffs) Mason could be worthy of a starting spot. The Ram have an improved offense line and Mason has the power to run inside and the speed to break one outside. He’s a much more complete back than Stacy and I think talent will win out in the Rams backfield it just may take most of the season.
Auction value – Re-draft $3, Keeper: $8
2013 Statistical comparison – James Starks
Draft him ahead of – David Wilson, Latavius Murray
18.) Carlos Hyde, 49ers:
Playing time – At first glance it looks like a crowded backfield, but workhorse Frank Gore is 31 with a lot of mileage on his legs. Kendall Hunter has been productive (4.6 ypc) but is a free agent next season, Lamichael James is on his way out of town, and Marcus Lattimore isn’t healthy enough to be cleared for rookie mini-camp. For this year I think Hyde will be limited to a back-up role, but he’s got a chance to be the feature back as soon as 2015. The 49ers have been giving Gore more rest every season and if he stays healthy, I think around 125 carries is Hyde’s ceiling this year.
Fantasy outlook – Hyde was the closest thing to Frank Gore in this year’s draft and it should be a smooth integration into the Niners offense. Hyde is a powerful back with surprising wiggle for his size and could be a beast once he takes over the #1 role. I don’t think that will be until 2015 at the earliest, so for this year Hyde is nothing more than a late round stash who could vulture some short yardage TDs, but won’t get enough carries to be an every week starter.
Auction value – Re-draft $3, Keeper: $10
2013 Statistical comparison – Montee Ball
Draft ahead of – Andre Brown, James Starks
19.) Marqise Lee, Jaguars:
Playing time – With Justin Blackmon likely suspended for the season, there isn’t much talent on the Jags depth chart at WR besides Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders. Lee should be able to step into the starting lineup week 1. If Chad Henne is the QB, Lee’s numbers could end up being pretty decent his rookie year. The Jags O-line should be better with a healthy Luke Joeckel and the additions of guards Zane Beadles and Brandon Lindor. With an improved line and the experienced and mediocre Henne under center, Lee should see enough targets to get some fantasy attention.
Fantasy outlook – Lee would have been a top 10 pick if he had entered the draft last year, but an injury plagued 2013 season and lingering questions about the stability of his knee dropped him to the second round. If Lee is healthy, he has as much talent as any of the rookie wide receivers and with a starting gig Lee could put up enough numbers to earn a spot on your fantasy roster this year. I will have him stashed on a few of my benches, knowing he has the upside to move into my starting lineup by mid-season.
Auction value – Re-draft $3, Keeper $7
2013 Statistical comparison – Jarrett Boykin
Draft him ahead of – Andre Roberts, Kenbrell Thompkins
20.) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Bucs
Playing time – Last year’s tight end Tim Wright was a glorified wide receiver (6’3, 220) and Lovie Smith made it clear right away that he is looking for a more traditionally sized TE. Wright could still see the field as a big WR, but I think his days as the Bucs TE are over. They did sign Brandon Myers, who is coming off a bust year with the Giants, but I think he is going to be Seferian-Jenkins back-up this year. Lovie said he wanted a traditional TE and he got a beast in ASJ at 6’6, 262.
Fantasy outlook – Seferian-Jenkins has the best size (6’6, 259) / speed (4.56) ratio in the draft at the tight end position. He has had off-field trouble and trouble staying on the field, but when healthy and motivated he was unstoppable in college. ASJ will have to beat out Myers for the starting job, but talent wise that shouldn’t be a problem. With new QB Josh McCown under center I think ASJ has the potential for an excellent rookie year with around 60 catches, 750 yards, and 6 TDs.
Auction value – Re-draft
$3
, Keeper
$7
2013 Statistical comparison
– Martellus Bennet
Draft ahead of – Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen
21.) Zach Mettenberger, Titans:
Playing time – Jake Locker is not the answer in Tennessee, the Titans have already decided not to pick up their 2015 option on Locker so he will be on a short leash this season. Charlie Whitehurst is technically the #2 QB but if he had any real potential the Chargers wouldn’t have let him go for next to nothing (2 yrs, $4.5M). Assuming he’s healthy and drug-free, Mettenberger will get a chance to play as soon as Locker inevitably fails. Whitehurst might get the first shot at replacing him, but he’s probably going to fail too.
Fantasy outlook – I am higher on Mettenberger than most, I had him ranked as the5th best QB prospect and his ideal size and cannon arm are worth getting excited about. He played in a pro-style offense under former NFL OC Cam Cameron and has the physical ability to make any throw on the NFL route tree. The Titans added T Taylor Lewan to an already strong O-line which should keep Mettenberger clean and give him enough time to unleash his rocket arm and connect with deep threats Nate Washington, Justin Hunter and promising 3rd-year player Kendall Wright. There are a lot of ifs with Mettenberger, but he has as much upside as any rookie QB.
Fantasy value – Re-draft: $3, Keeper: $8
Draft him ahead of – Jake Locker
22.) Jarvis Landry, Dolphins:
Playing time – Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline are locked in as the top two WRs, but I think Brandon Gibson’s job as the #3 WR is vulnerable. Some our higher on Gibson than I am, but I am higher on Landry than most. His sub-par 40-time (4.7) hurt his draft value but he was projected as a late 1st – early 2nd rounder before the combine. The fact that the Dolphins took Landry late in the 2nd proves they aren’t worried about his speed. With Chip Kelly disciple Bill Lazor taking over as the Dolphins OC I expect to see a more dynamic offense with more multiple receiver sets which could lead to plenty of playing time for Landry even if he doesn’t beat out Gibson for the 3rd WR job.
Fantasy Outlook – Due to the Dolphins new look offense and the fact that I think Landry is a mini-Anquan Boldin, he is one of my sleeper fantasy picks this season. Landry can catch everything in his vicinity and is very tough to bring down after the catch. I expect a productive season from Landry with 50+ catches, 700+ yards, and around 5 TDs.
Auction value – Re-draft: $2, Keeper $5
2013 Statistical comparison – Rod Streater
Draft ahead of – Andre Roberts, Kenny Britt, Jerome Simpson
23.) Lorenzo Taliaferro, Ravens
Playing time – Ray Rice is going to get suspended and how many games he misses will have a direct impact on Taliaferro’s playing time. If it’s 1-2, then that isn’t really long enough for Taliaferro to establish himself as an impact player, but if it’s 4 or more than that could be all the time he needs to prove that he deserves a portion of the overall carries. Bernard Pierce will be the #1 RB when Rice is out, but he showed last year in his stint as the #1 RB that he is better off as a back-up with limited carries (2.9 ypc). Pierce is a powerful runner, but doesn’t have the jets to get outside and is limited as a receiver. With Rice out of the picture for a few games at least, Taliaferro could prove a better option than Pierce and his touches will increase accordingly. If he struggles while Rice is out, then he’s on the end of the bench as the 3rd RB. Taliaferro’s recent arrest for being drunk in public may lead to some discipline from the commish, but it is his first offense so I don’t think he’ll be suspended.
Fantasy Outlook – Taliaferro does a lot of things really well, but similar to James White doesn’t have one defining characteristic. He’s tall for a back and his upright running style could lead to injuries, but he was durable in college and very productive (1,729 yards, 6.3 ypc). He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, one of the best pass blockers of the rookie class, and has deceptive speed (4.58) for a guy his size (6’0, 229). I am higher on Taliferro than most and think he is going to eventually push Rice out of Baltimore.
Auction value – Re-draft $1, Keeper $5
2013 Statistical comparison – Joique Bell
Draft him ahead of – Andre Brown, James Starks
24.) Andre Williams, Giants
Playing time – There are some bodies in front of Williams in Jennings, Hillis and maybe David Wilson, but they all have their flaws. Jennings should be the starter out of the gate and has the talent to keep the job, but he has struggled to stay healthy when given a full work load. Wilson is coming off a career threatening neck injury and it’s questionable how much he will be able to contribute. Hillis is nothing more than a short-yardage back and none of the other rostered backs (Scott, Cox) are more than depth. If Jennings gets banged up, I think Williams is the next best option on the roster to take over as the feature back. If not I still think Williams gets 8-10 carries a game to keep Jennings fresh. The opportunity is there for Williams but he needs to show he can catch the ball after not having any catches last season.
Fantasy outlook – The Giants have a bunch of mediocre running backs, but Williams is the one best suited to a workhorse role. If he can earn the lead back job, he could be a beast and make a fantasy impact. Williams had 355 carries last year so he proved he can hold up to a feature back workload and if he can win the job he should be a solid RB2 in fantasy. If not, his fantasy value will be limited since he doesn’t catch the ball and won’t see more than 8-10 carries a game as a back-up.
Auction value – Re-draft $1, Keeper $5
2013 Statistical comparison – Joique Bell
Draft ahead of – Andre Brown, James Starks
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
25.) Davante Adams, Packers:
Playing time – The Packers are loaded at receiver with Nelson, Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin, but I don’t think they would have used a 2nd round pick on Adams (considering their defensive needs) if they didn’t plan on playing Adams. All three of the Packers starters are in the last year of their contracts, so the drafting of Adams could have been more for 2015 than this season. I still think Adams will get plenty of playing time to make sure they have a solid replacement on hand if they can’t afford to bring back all three (long-shot). Adams will see time in 4-WR sets and may push Boykin for playing time, but his chances of starting or even seeing more than 50% of the offensive snaps are slim.
Fantasy outlook – Adams was one of my favorite receivers in a stacked draft at the position. He was very productive in two years at Fresno St (233, 3031, 38), can make people miss after the catch and has the strength to break tackles when they don’t. I think he’s going to be an impact fantasy player, but it probably won’t happen this year. There will be flashes, but with GB loaded at the receiver position I just don’t see Adams getting enough targets to be a viable fantasy option this season. In keeper leagues though he is a guy who should be available at the end of your draft who could pay huge dividends next year if a couple of the Packers free agent receivers move on.
Auction value – Re-draft $1, Keeper $5
2013 Statistical comparison – Robert Woods
Draft ahead of – NA
26.) Cody Latimer, Broncos:
Playing time – Latimer probably should have stayed at school one more year, but his first year with the Broncos will be like a master’s course in receiving. The Broncos lost Eric Decker, but replaced him with Emmanuel Sanders so they are still loaded at receiver. Latimer’s snaps will most likely be limited to start the year as the 4th or 5th WR, but that will give him time to learn from guys like Manning, Thomas and Welker. I think Latimer will beat out 4th WR Andre Caldwell as the season progresses, Emmanuel Sanders isn’t the most durable guy, and Wes Welker is concussion prone. It’s a long-shot, but Latimer has a chance to play significant minutes in 2014.
Fantasy Outlook – Probably minimal for this year at least, but if you are in a keeper league with a deep bench, then Latimer would be an ideal stash. Any receiver on the field has value in this offense and if Latimer gets a chance this year, he’s worth a spot on your roster. If not, there is a good chance he’s gets starter snaps next year with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. That’s an ideal situation for any receiver and Latimer has elite potential.
Auction value – $1, Keeper $5
2013 Statistical comparison – Cordarrelle Patterson
27.) C.J. Fiedorowicz, Texans
Playing time – The last time Texans new HC Bill O’Brien was in the NFL, he was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots in 2011. That was the year that the Pats 2-TE offense took the league by storm. The Pats used Gronk as an inline blocker and Hernandez as the Move-TE. The 2-TE set works best against 3-4 defenses which just so happen to be run by division rivals the Colts and Titans and 9 of the 15 teams in the AFC. Garrett Graham is best suited for the Hernandez (Move-TE) role and Fiedorowicz is an excellent blocker so should slide right into the Gronk role. I’m not saying he’s going to match Gronk’s production, just that he should see plenty of snaps as a rookie.
Fantasy outlook – Fiedorowicz is a solid blocker and had the best short-area quickness of all the rookie TEs at the combine. He’s a better blocker than Graham and with his quickness and soft hands could be his equal as a receiver as well. If O’Brien’s offense resembles the one he ran with the 2011 Pats, then there will be plenty of targets for both Graham and Fiedorowicz. His blocking is solid enough to keep him on the field all game and his soft hands and quick feet will make him a fantasy worthy option as a rookie. He shouldn’t cost more than $1 and could have $10-$15 value. I’m going to have him on a few of my roster just in case O’Brien’s offensive scheme resembles the 2011 2-TE attack.
Auction value – Re-draft $1, Keeper $5
2013 Statistical comparison – Martellus Bennet
Draft ahead of – Owen Daniels, Andrew Quarless
¹ Based on ESPN’s current rankings