Fantasy Football: 2014 QB Rankings (Part 1)

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4th Tier: Solid Vets (& Foles)

These guys won’t cost you much more than a few bucks or a late round pick and could possibly end up near the top 5 if things break their way, but I also think they have the best chance of falling out of the top 12 this year due to old age, less luck, or a lack of reliable weapons. Ideally these guys are top-tier backups in 12-team leagues, but if you end up with one as a starter all is not lost.

14.) Philip Rivers, Chargers – New Chargers HC Mike McCoy helped rejuvenate Rivers’ career and fantasy value last season. It shouldn’t have been a surprise, McCoy is the same guy that made Tim Tebow into a reasonable facsimile of an NFL QB when he was OC in Denver. McCoy might be a magician, seriously the Chargers had one of the worst collection of receivers outside of Carolina. Rookie Keenan Allen was a revelation, but Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, one-legged Malcolm Floyd, and Seyi Ajirotuto aren’t scaring anyone. For some reason the Chargers didn’t upgrade their receiving core at all in the offseason, so Rivers is stuck with the same cast of bums around Keenan Allen. The potential development of TE Ladarious Green is exciting, but he is still blocked by the barely mobile Antonio Gates. Rivers could have a repeat of last year’s surprising season, but he’ll be 33 this year, they didn’t add any weapons on offense (unless you count Donald Brown), and opposing defenses should be better prepared for McCoy’s offensive scheme this year.

15.) Nick Foles, Eagles – Former 3rd round pick Nick Foles surprised everyone with a ridiculous 27/2 touchdown to interception ratio in his 2nd pro season. You might think he is primed for an even bigger year in 2014, but there are a few things to consider:

• Foles got lucky last year; There were 2-3 dropped INTs that I saw and I didn’t watch many Eagles games.
• The NFL has had a year to catch up to Chip Kelly’s high-octane offensive scheme. Every year there is a new offensive wrinkle that seems unstoppable (wildcat, read option) and the next year defenses figure it out. I still think the Eagles will have a solid offense, but I think defenses will be better prepared for it and it won’t be quite as prolific.
• Foles lost his most dangerous WR in DeSean Jackson.
• Foles doesn’t run (57 yards) so his fantasy value is tied solely to his passing numbers which brings me to my next point.
• The Eagles were 27th in pass attempts last year. Chip Kelly’s offense is about LeSean McCoy, not Nick Foles. Like Wilson and Kaepernick, Foles’ fantasy value is limited by his offensive scheme, but unlike those two he doesn’t run enough to make up for the 10+ extra pass attempts other QBs are getting every week.

Don’t take this as a knock on Foles in real-life, I think he is a very solid QB. His decision-making was excellent for a 2nd-year QB and his numbers could be similar this season with a better grasp of Chip Kelly’s offense. I just don’t trust Foles upside enough for him to be my #1 fantasy QB.

16.) Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – The Roethlisberger / Antonio Brown connection was profitable for both players last season, but Ben didn’t have much else to work with. Roethlisberger was vocal about needing a tall receiver in the offseason and I expected the Steelers brass to do something about it. They didn’t. The Steelers replaced old, mediocre Jerrico Cotchery with old, mediocre Lance Moore, handed the #2 spot to inconsistent 2nd-year player Markus Wheaton and waited till the 4th round to draft Martavis Bryant, who is tall and has a ton of potential but is at least a year or two away from being an every-down contributor. Basically, Ben’s situation in Pittsburgh hasn’t changed at all and either has his ceiling. I think his numbers will look very similar to last year’s decent fantasy season.

On the cusp:

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17.) Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins – I know you got bored just reading his name, but Tannehill was actually pretty good last year. If you check his stats they aren’t going to wow you, but they were pretty solid for a 2nd year QB (60.4%, 3913, 24/17, 238 rushing yards) considering the shit-show he was surrounded with. Tannehill was playing behind possibly the worst offensive line in the league the second half of the year, Mike Wallace quit on the season in week 4, and some guy name Rishard Matthews was Tannehill’s go-to guy the last third of the season. As Bears fans we have used similar excuses for Cutler many times, so it’s only fair we give Tannehill the same treatment. I think there is real potential here and with Chip Kelly disciple Joe Lazor taking over as the OC, this could be Tannehill’s break out year. I’m not pimping him as your #1, but in 2 QB leagues or as a backup with upside, he is a great value at his current price ($1, 15th round).

Part 2 coming tomorrow…

¹ All rankings and draft prices are based on Yahoo’s default fantasy settings