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Tier 7: Mediocre vets
You know what you are getting with these guys for the most part. Eli skews the reliability of this group because there is such a wide gap between good and bad Eli, but the rest of these guys have a pretty small variance above or below mediocre. You probably aren’t winning your league with any of these guys as your #1 QB, but if your #1 QB is on a bye or playing the Seahawks on the road, they can fill in for a game and not hurt your team too badly if they have a favorable match-up.
23.) Eli Manning, Giants – Who the F knows? Eli averaged just under 29 TDs a year from 2010-2012 and then crapped the bed last year with only 18 TDs and a whopping 27 INTs. Is he done at 33? I don’t think so, the Giants line was an absolute mess last year with only 1 starting O-lineman earning a positive grade (Pugh, 1.9) and just barely at that. The Giants brought in some O-line help (Schwartz, Walton, Jerry) via free agency and drafted C Westin Richburg who was one of my highest rated interior lineman in the draft. The Giants also hired a new OC, Ben McAd00, who is installing a quick release offense that will take advantage of the after-the-catch skills of Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, and rookie Odell Beckham. The offense will look considerably different, but Coughlin is too old to change his preference for throwing the ball down the field so there will be plenty of opportunities for big plays (and more picks). Overall I think Eli falls somewhere between his best year (2011) and his worst (2013), which only makes him draftable if you start two QBs.
24.) Carson Palmer, Cardinals – He hasn’t been fantasy relevant in a few years, but the Cards added a legit LT (Veldheer) and get last year’s 1st round pick back (G Jonathon Cooper) so at least the left side of the line will be solid. They also have a potentially solid receiver group (Floyd, Fitz, rookie John Brown) and a dangerous running back (Ellington). They play in the NFC West which means 6 games against 3 of the best 5 defenses in the league, but I think with an improved line and intriguing offensive weapons Palmer will put up enough numbers to be a respectable backup fantasy QB.
25.) Alex Smith, Chiefs – If your idea of a solid day from your fantasy QB is 200 yards and 1 TD, then by all means go get Alex Smith. I owned Dwayne Bowe in multiple leagues last year, so I watched a few Chiefs games early in the season. Never again! Smith is terrified of throwing the ball farther than 15 yards; He finished 29th in the league in yards per pass attempt (6.52), 1 spot ahead of Brandon Weedon. Gross.
26.) Joe Flacco, Ravens – Was Flacco’s playoff / Super Bowl run in 2011 the most profitable month anyone has ever had? Flacco was mediocre before that month and down right bad after it, but his performance that month (11 TD, 0 INT) got him a $20 million a year contract. Well played Joe. The Ravens added rapidly aging Steve Smith and 2nd-year player Marlon Brown showed some promise last year, but really this is a team with 1 quality receiver who is one-dimensional (deep), a questionable running game, and an OL that was shaky last season. Flacco will be 30 before the end of the season, so it’s not like he is still developing either. No thanks.
Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Tier 8: Longshots
Most likely none of these guys will be fantasy relevant at any point this season. They might have a big game here and there and if you get lucky and start them on one of those days, then good for you. Over the long haul you are better off staying away from these guys (except maybe Fitz).
27.) Ryan FitzPatrick, Texans – #FitzMagic is a joke, but there a lot worse QBs on NFL rosters. Fitzpatrick has completed over 60% of his passes the last three seasons and has averaged 21 TDs & 17 INT per season over the last three. The INT number is higher than you want it, but he has also spent all of his career on bad teams that were usually trailing and putting Fitz in a tough spot. I’m not suggesting you take Fitz as your #1 QB, but there is enough evidence to suggest that he isn’t all that bad. He’s never had a WR as good as Andre Johnson or a running game as productive as Houston’s can be with a healthy Arian Foster. Fitz had the highest completion percentage of his career last season, his first positive grade from PFF (2.6), and the 15th best QBR in the league ahead of Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger. He’s coming off arguably his best year as a pro QB, is surrounded by more weapons than he has ever had, and will be tutored by QB guru Bill O’Brien. Before taking over as the Texans HC, O’Brien was Tom Brady’s QB coach early in his career, somehow made an NFL QB out of Matt McGloin and his meager talent at Penn St, and groomed current Penn St QB Christian Hackenberg into a potential Heisman winner this year. O’Brien is good with QBs and if he can improve Fitz a bit from last season, he could surprise everybody and end up in the top 15 QBs overall.
28.) E.J. Manuel, Bills – He only played in 10 games last year, but the results weren’t pretty. Manuel was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst QB last year with a -18.1 grade and he was 28th in QBR. His traditional stats weren’t that bad though with 11 TDs & 9 INTs and a 4-6 record is about what was expected with the lack of talent around him. Manuel has an exciting new weapon at WR in Sammy Watkins, a solid O-line in front of him and decent running backs behind him, so he could have a decent year. From what I’ve seen, Manuel throws a nice ball, but he locks on to his first target and doesn’t progress through his reads which doesn’t bode well for his chances of NFL success. The Bills saw enough talent in Manuel to make him a 1st round pick, but I haven’t seen it.
29.) Blake Bortles, Jags – I think Bortles takes the job in week 7. It’s the start of a 3 of 4 home games stretch which includes the defensively challenged Cowboys. Bortles is the farthest from ready of the three 1st round QB’s, but he has considerable upside. His deep ball needs a lot of work, but their receiving core is stacked with YAC types, so Bortles elite mid-range accuracy should play well with the current roster. If you are forced to start Bortles this year, you did something wrong, but he’s an excellent keeper and worth a shot at the end of your bench in 2 QB leagues.
30.) Brian Hoyer, Browns – He’s from Cleveland, a life-long Browns fan, and went 2-0 in his first two starts on a team that only won 4 games total. You would think Hoyer would be a lock for the starting job, but Manziel is the ultimate wild-card. I hope Hoyer gets at least a chance to see what he can do. Even if Hoyer does start the first few games of the season, the deck is stacked against him because the Browns play top 15 defenses in their first 5 games. I would like to see Hoyer win the job, but he has little to no fantasy value without Gordon playing and eventually Cleveland’s brass is going to give Manziel the job regardless.
31.) Geno Smith, Jets – If you are reading this and considering drafting Geno Smith either you are terrible at fantasy football, a Jets fan, or are in a 16 team, 2-QB fantasy league. Smith has plenty of athletic ability, but he’s not close to being a good NFL QB. The one thing that makes Smith somewhat relevant for fantasy is his rushing ability, he tied for the lead among NFL QBs with 6 rushing TDs last year (Cam). His rushing stats (366 yards, 6 TDs) earned him a spot in the top 25 QBs overall, but at this point in his career running is all he has in his bag. I was surprised that his accuracy was 55.8% because I don’t think I saw him hit one WR in the numbers. His INT total almost doubled his TD passes (21/12) and he looked like a deer in the headlights in the pocket. The only thing nice I can think of to say about Smith is that he got noticeably better as the year went on. Smith threw 7 TDs passes over the last 6 weeks of the seasons (and 8 INTs) so maybe the game slowed down for him a bit at the end of the year? Considering the only positive report I can find on him this offseason is “Smith doesn’t look as terrible”, I’m not expecting anything out of him this season.
32.) Matt Schaub, Raiders – Can he bounce back from his mental breakdown last year? Does he still have the pick-6 yips? Let someone else find out. The Raiders have an O-line with 4 new starters, 2 old, beat up RBs (MJD, DMC), and a mediocre WR group (J. Jones, Streeter). Schaub has never been a prolific fantasy QB in the best of times and I just don’t see any upside here.
Tier 9: Backups in 2 QB leagues:
Nothing to see here.
33.) Matt Cassell, Vikings – His days are numbered as the Vikings #1 QB. Teddy Bridgewater is already sharing reps with the 1st team offense and it’s just a matter of time till he takes the job permanently. Don’t draft Casssel.
34.) Chad Henne, Jags – Maybe it’s because I watched him pick apart my Illini teams while he was the QB at Michigan, but I always thought Henne was a solid NFL backup…. Until I took a closer look at his stats. Did you know Henne has never had a season where he threw more TDs then INTs? His career ratio is 62 INT / 55 TD… That’s bad. The Jags added considerable talent on both sides of the ball this offseason and I was mildly excited about their chance to get to .500 this year. After seeing Henne’s stats I’m not so sure. Am I overreacting to stats? Whatever, just don’t draft Henne.