Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs (Part 1)
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4th Tier: Solid RB2
Most of these guys have been fantasy assets in the past but could be in danger of losing a few touches due to competition, old age, injury concerns or a new offensive scheme. These backs should start the season strong at least but I would consider either drafting a handcuff or stashing a replacement back with upside somewhere on your bench in case they get rested late in the season (Gore), get hurt (Matthews), turn out to be a bad fit for their new coach / scheme (Morris) or just aren’t as good as their backup (Martin).
14.) Ryan Matthews, Chargers – I was coming around on Matthews until his fumble at the goal line in a preseason game reminded me that Matthews had 10 fumbles in the first 26 games of his NFL career. The reckless dive for the goal line in a preseason game also got me thinking about the fact that last year was the only time he has played 16 games in his 4 year career. Matthews is in a good situation as the primary back in an up-tempo offense that should lead to more touches, but little Danny Woodhead is still around and free agent acquisition Donald Brown is in the mix now as well. Matthews will have fantasy value and a few big weeks, but his history of fumbles and injuries combined with competition for touches from Woodhead and Brown keep me from ranking him any higher than 14.
15.) Alfred Morris, Redskins – Last year the preseason buzz was that Morris would be a big part of the passing game, he ended the season with 2 LESS catches than the year before. I think we can give up on Morris ever adding any PPR value to your squad. Morris is still a pretty safe bet for 1,200+ yards on the ground at least.
16.) Frank Gore, 49ers – I hear that this is the year Gore finally breaks down! That has been the story for the last two seasons and Gore continues to look exactly the same year in and year out. Eventually he will lose a step, but he looked pretty solid to me last year (4.1 ypc & 9 TDs). There are some legitimate concerns with Gore. The Niners manage his workload late in the season to save him for the playoffs from about week 12 on, which just happens to coincide with the start of the fantasy playoffs. 2nd round rookie Carlos Hyde is a problem as well. He has had an impressive training camp and looked great in his first preseason action this weekend. Hyde is a perfect fit for the Niners offense and will eventually take Gore’s job. How much of it he takes this season is a question mark, but a big enough one that I can’t justify taking Gore till the 3rd round.
17.) Doug Martin, Bucs – I have been preaching temperance on Doug Martin since last preseason when teams were taking him in the top 5 picks. He had one awesome game (251 yards, 4 TDs) against one of the worst defenses in football that year (Raiders, 28th). Last season Martin averaged 3.6 YPC before injuring his shoulder in week 6. Both of his replacements averaged more yards per carry than Martin did with pretty much the same offensive line. New Bucs HC Lovie Smith will run early and often, and Martin could have a solid season in a new scheme. Or Martin could struggle and be replaced by 3rd round pick Charles Sims who reminds many (me included) of Matt Forte who was Smith’s bell-cow RB in Chicago. Bucs coaches have been talking about some form of a time-share at RB all preseason which could keep Martin healthy all year, but also limit his touches. There is enough talent here for a solid RB2 season, but there is some legitimate risk as well. There are too many red flags for me to draft Martin before round 3.
18.) C.J. Spiller, Bills – Am I going to get burned for the 3rd season in a row? Probably, but I still believe in Spiller’s talent and the Bills ran the ball more than any other team last year (34.1 carries per game) so I think there are enough touches for both Spiller and Jackson to have fantasy value. The trade they made for Bryce Brown and the signing of Anthony Dixon worry me a little, but if the Spiller trade rumors are true he may end up in a better situation fantasy-wise. This is the make-or-break season in Spiller’s career; I’m not sold that he has a big year, but after drafting Spiller for three years in a row I’m not going to miss it if he does.
5th Tier: Breakouts
Feel free to ignore these picks, these are my gut feeling breakouts. There are some rookies on this list, a couple of career backups finally getting a chance, and a guy I’m not quite ready to give up on yet. Here are my irrational breakout picks this year:
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19.) Bishop Sankey, Titans – I have been high on Sankey from the beginning and I’m not worried about these Shonn Greene stories coming out of Titans camp. You know why? Shonn Greene has sucked and struggled to stay healthy for the majority of his 5-year NFL career. Even if Greene starts out on the high-side of the platoon, I don’t expect it to last more than a couple of weeks. Don’t worry about Sankey’s poor performance in the preseason opener (2.8 ypc) either, hopefully that will drop him a bit in your draft. Sankey is the most well-rounded rookie RB and despite the presence of Greene is in the best situation of all the rookie backs. Greene is a stiff and will be out of the picture soon. The Titans added stud tackle Taylor Lewan to an already solid O-line which includes last year’s 1st round pick G Chance Warmac who is supposedly dominating in camp. Sankey should get most of the carries between the 20s, catch a decent amount of balls and once Greene gets hurt (like he always does), Sankey could take over the goal line carries as well. Sankey isn’t a big back (5’10, 203), but runs with good lean and had no trouble getting into the end zone in college last season (21 TDs).
20.) Toby Gerhart, Jags – He’s never had more than 109 carries in a season. Does that worry you? If not, bump him up a few spots. Gerhart is in the best situation of his career. He’s the lead back on a team with a run-first HC and an improved offensive line. Gerhart can catch the ball too, so he should have 30-40 receptions at least if he can stay on the field all year. He is already struggling with a hamstring issue, which is one of those injuries that lingers and really hampers a player who needs his speed to produce. The hamstring is troubling, but if healthy I think Gerhart has 1300 yards, 40 catch, 12 TD potential. I dropped him a few spots due to injury concerns, but if you feel better about his ability to stay on the field than I do, then I don’t think 12-13 is an unreasonable rank. Less than half the backs in the league have as strong of a hold on his team’s #1 RB spot as Gerhart.
21.) Rashad Jennings, Giants – Everyone overreacted when Jennings had a mediocre first preseason game and rookie Andre Williams got the goal line work, but hopefully people will relax after his 72-yard TD run in game 2. Actually, I hope they don’t so I can get Jennings at a discount. Andre Williams is a talented, bruising RB but he can’t catch (2 catches in 2 years at BC, multiple drops at combine) and having him on the field takes away an option that the defense has to game plan for. Jennings was pretty damn good in his stint as the Raiders #1 RB last season (4.5 ypc) and with an improved Giants O-line, he should put up solid RB2 numbers this year. Don’t worry about Williams and take advantage of the Jennings discount.
22.) Ben Tate, Browns – He has a reputation of being injury prone and he has missed some time, but it is an average of just over 2 games per season. I’ll gladly take Tate and his 4.7 career YPC for 14 games at a discount. Tate has Terrance West breathing down his neck for the starting job, but has produced whenever given a chance in his career. Tate looked explosive to me in the Browns first preseason game and if the Browns end up going with a rookie QB, I think having a RB with some experience makes more sense than another rookie in the backfield. He will lose some carries to West, but less workload may end up keeping him healthy and fantasy viable all season. The Browns have a pretty good O-line and if either of the RBs can get 20+ touches a game they could be a legit RB2 and possibly more.
23.) Lamar Miller, Dolphins – I fell for the hype last year and probably will again. It’s too promising of a situation not to roll the dice on. The Dolphins have a rebuilt O-line, Miller bulked up a bit in the offseason, the Dolphins have Chip Kelly disciple Bill Lazor as their new OC, and if their offense is anything like the Eagles it will be built around their RB. The Dolphins have finally given up on Daniel Thomas, free agent addition Knowshon Moreno showed up to camp fat and injured, and that leaves my man Lamar as the primary RB. Even if Miller is a homeless man’s McCoy he is a steal at his current ADP ($1.5, 11.7).
24.) Jeremy Hill, Bengals – He isn’t getting as much hype as some of his fellow rookies, but Hill could out score them all in fantasy this year. The Bengals are going to split out Gio as a WR more often this season, former RB coach and new OC Hue Jackson loves to run the ball, and Hill has already passed BJGE on the depth chart… Everything is lining up for Hill to get a significant amount of carries this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hill gets the ball at least as much as BJGE did last year (220 carries). Hill averaged 6.9 yards as a between the tackles RB in the rugged SEC last year and has infinitely more talent than BJGE. I think 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs is a modest projection behind an excellent Bengals O-line.
25.) Devonta Freeman, Falcons – Steven Jackson looked slooow last year. I’m pretty sure new Falcons tackle Jake Matthews could smoke S-Jax in a 40-yard dash. Jackson is basically a fullback at this point of his career and eventually the Falcons will find another option. The first option on that list should be Devonta Freeman. The rookie from Florida St was underused last season as part of a committee at FSU, so his legs are fresh and his value is underrated right now (hopefully Hard Knocks doesn’t boost it too much). Freeman is short (5’9), but muscular and I think he is stout enough to hold up as a work horse back. The Falcons finished 3rd in the league in pass attempts per game last year so it’s not like Freeman would be getting 25+ carries regardless. Freeman is a smooth receiver out of the backfield, a shifty runner with the ability to avoid clean hits, and has enough power to run between the tackles. He has been my dark-horse pick for rookie of the year since the draft.