Fantasy Football Week 3: Start’em / Sit’em
Last week: 14-14-2, Season: 31-21-5 (60%)
Week 2 Recap: I guess I had it coming after bragging about my week 1 success and 16 consecutive weeks of being right more often than wrong. With all the injuries, Jake Locker falling apart, and Belichick screwing with fantasy owners (again), it was a rough week for my picks. I barely managed to break even on my picks last week. At least my reverse jinx on Jay Cutler worked like a charm.
I finished under .500 with my Start’em picks (8-9-2) but managed to make a few good ones including Ahmad Bradshaw (+16), Terrance West (+8), and 3 of my 4 TE picks (Ertz, Donnell, Kelce), but was way off on Tom Brady (-7), Jake Locker (-8), Chris Johnson (-8), Shane Vereen (-8), Reggie Wayne (-7)… There are a few more but it is too depressing to go on. I’m confident that Vereen and Wayne will bounce back with strong weeks, but I’m staying away from Brady and Johnson until I see a couple good fantasy performances in a row. I’m staying away from Locker for ever.
My Sit’em picks were a little better (6-5) and my two picks with the highest start percentage in Yahoo, Reggie Bush (-8) & Victor Cruz (-4) both worked out, but I was so far off on Antonio Gates (-22) that none of my correct picks make up for it. Granted I wasn’t the only one who recommended sitting Gates (ESPN, SI, CBS) but it is still embarrassing. I made the rookie mistake of putting too much stock in how teams played the week before. Every scheme is different and just because teams shut down tight ends one week, it doesn’t mean squat in the next. I feel lucky to come out of week 2 with a .500 record and am ready to get back on the horse this week.
If you missed my week 1 post with the pick guidelines and qualifications, here is the link . Short version is that only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues are eligible for the Start’em picks and only players over 10% for the Sit’em picks. I’m using Yahoo’s default scoring projections (w .5 PPR) as my projection guidelines. The Start’em picks are players I think will outplay their projected line, while the Sit’em picks are players I think will fall short of their Yahoo projected total.
If you have questions about specific players, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section and I will get back to you before this weekends games. Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week and go Bears!
Start’em
QB
Jay Cutler @NYJ (50%, 15) – No reverse jinx this week. The Jets secondary is beat up and was picked apart by Aaron Rodgers last week. The Bears O-line has done a great job keeping Cutler clean (3 sacks) despite facing two solid pass rushes (BUF, SF) and I think Cutler could have a big day. The Bears are also throwing the ball almost three times more than they run it so far.
Russell Wilson @DEN (40%, 17) – The Seahawks don’t pass much; They are ranked 30th in the league with 26.5 attempts per game which is consistent with the last two seasons. Despite the low attempts Wilson has been able to put up 20+ fantasy points in back to back weeks due to his hyper-efficiency (68% completions) and rushing yards (47). I expect that the Seahawks will have to throw a little more in their matchup with the Broncos and Wilson should have no trouble topping the 20 point mark again.
Kirk Cousins @PHI (9%, 14) – I got burned by Cousins late last season when he basically crapped himself in two easy matchups (DAL, NYG), but he had a solid preseason, looked sharp in his debut last week (22/33, 252, 2 TDs) and should be able to move the ball against a mediocre Philly secondary.
RB
Stan Liu-USA TODAY Sports
Knile Davis @MIA (45%, 13) – In the three games Davis has started for the Chiefs he is averaging 97 yards, 5 catches and 2 TDs. He does a pretty good Jamaal Charles impression and should put up decent stats this weekend against the Dolphins.
Terrance West BAL (38%, 10) – I started West in every league I could last week and it worked out pretty well. There wasn’t much running room, but West is shifty for a big guy, showed good vision, and soft hands out of the backfield as well. He looked like the real deal and I think he’ll do enough against a tough Ravens D to get you at least double-digit fantasy points.
Joique Bell GB (48%, 12) – The Packers defense did a better job against the run in week 2, but I haven’t forgotten about those Mack truck sized running lanes that they gave up vs Seattle and Marshawn Lynch. The Packers are weak between the tackles and that’s Bell’s territory. In two games vs the Pack last year, Bell averaged 4.8 ypc and scored a TD.
Ahmad Bradshaw @JAX (30%, 10) – The Colts finally seem to be figuring out what everyone else knows, T-Rich sucks. Richardson’s late fumble, which cost the Colts the game on Monday night, should be the last straw and ensure that Bradshaw is the lead back the rest of the way (till he gets hurt at least). Bradshaw got all the red-zone carries last week and was the 3rd down back, the T-Rich area may finally be over.
Sleepers
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Khiry Robinson @MIN (9%, 8) – The loss of Mark Ingram should open things up for Robinson and double his touches from 7-8 to the 15-16 range. Robinson should also get the red-zone carries for the next month at least and maybe longer if he excels at the job. I expect the Saints to be up big in this one and run the ball more than usual.
Jerick McKinnon @NO (0%, 4) – Matt Asiata is slooow and averaged only 2.8 ypc last week. McKinnon is a much more dynamic runner and sooner or later the Vikings will give him a shot. I’m guessing he is the primary RB by the 2nd half of this week’s game.
Alfred Blue @NYG (2%, 3) – This one is only for the deepest of leagues or those poor saps who lost multiple starters due to injury & arrests. Current Texans starter Arian Foster leads the league with 55 carries, showed up on the injury report this week (hamstring) and the Texans have stated that they need to lower his usage. Blue appears to the be the #2 RB and got 11 carries in a blowout win over the Raiders last week.