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Last week: 22-11-3, Season: 53-32-7 (62%)
Week 3 Recap: Not a bad bounce back after week 2’s disappointing .500 performance. I was optimistic about Kirk Cousin’s matchup vs the Eagles but even I didn’t see a 32 point fantasy line coming (+18). Knile Davis (+12), Martellus Bennett (+11), Victor Cruz (+9) and Alfred Blue (+7) were my other picks who clearly outperformed their Yahoo projected points.
I did miss badly on Joique Bell (-7), Zack Ert (-6) and Sammy Watkins (-9), but for the most part my Start’em picks were pretty solid (14-8). Watkins is an elite talent, but Buffalo’s QB woes will keep him from becoming a sure thing start every week. He’s basically a Flex dice roll, which is disappointing because if Watkins were on about 20 different teams he would be a lock for 10+ fantasy points per week.
My Sit’em picks were accurate as well (8-3-2) with Torrey Smith (-8), Toby Gerhart (-7), Justin Hunter (-7) and Jordan Cameron (-10) being my best picks considering overall start percentage and week 3 production. Cameron is a perfect example of why you don’t start players if they are still questionable on their first week post-injury. Though DeSean Jackson was pretty much in the same boat and ended up exceeding projections by a solid 6 points which was my worst Sit’em pick besides Kelvin Benjamin (+9.5). I’m starting both Benjamin and Jackson (if healthy) every week moving forward.
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If you missed my week 1 post with the pick guidelines and qualifications, here is the link . Short version is that only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues are eligible for the Start’em picks and only players over 10% for the Sit’em picks. I’m using Yahoo’s default scoring projections (w .5 PPR) as my projection guidelines. The Start’em picks are players I think will outplay their projected line, while the Sit’em picks are players I think will fall short of their Yahoo projected total.
If you have questions about specific players, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section and I will get back to you before this weekends games. Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week and go Bears!
Philip Rivers, Jaguars (51%, 17) – After a surprisingly competent first half in week 1, the Jags have been terrible since. They can’t protect their QB and their defense can’t stop anyone. I think the Bolts will roll the Jags and Rivers will have a few first half TD passes before taking it easy or even sitting out the 4th quarter of a blow out. With all the injuries at RB I think Rivers will air it out more than usual this week. 20+ fantasy points is almost a lock in this one.
Tony Romo, Saints (44%, 16) – It’s been a rough start to the season for Romo, but he looked like his old self in the 2nd half of last week’s game against the Rams. The matchup with the Saints has the highest over in Vegas (56) and they seem to know their business. I’m expecting a shoot out in this one and a solid 20+ fantasy day for Romo.
Kirk Cousins, Giants (42%, 15) – He put up 30+ in most leagues last week and the Giants aren’t much better than the Eagles on defense. Cousins has been surprisingly aggressive with the deep ball so far and I will keep rolling with Cousins until he gives me a reason not to.
Sleepers (2-QB Leagues)
Teddy Bridgewater, Falcons (4%, 14) – If you read any of my draft posts, you know I’m a big Bridgewater fan. He’s got a unique poise in the pocket and the ability to throw receivers open that reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. It’s probably going to take Bridgewater a year or two to develop into a QB worthy of a spot in your starting lineup, but this week’s match-up against the Falcons is tempting. Last week’s blowout of the Bucs has skewed the Falcons defensive rankings, but trust me they aren’t that good. I could see Bridgewater putting up a solid 250 yard, 2 TD line with 30-40 rushing yards as a bonus.
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Ahmad Bradshaw, Titans (67%, 10) – Don’t be worried about the fact that T-Rich got 5 more carries than Bradshaw last week. The Colts had a 30-0 lead at halftime and gave Richardson some work after the game was in hand. In a matchup that might be a little more challenging this week, Bradshaw should get the majority of the touches and put up a solid fantasy line. I’m starting him as my RB2 in multiple leagues.
Lamar Miller, @Raiders (62%, 14) – I don’t feel so bad about owning Miller in multiple leagues last year after 28 touches, 132 yards, and a TD last week. Miller is pretty much the only option in Miami right now and the Raiders have given up the 9th most points to fantasy RBs so far this season. After 43 mostly unsuccessful pass attempts last week and uncertainty at the QB position, I have a feeling the Dolphins will run the ball more this week and Miller could have a huge day.
Doug Martin, @Steelers (47%, 10) – Bobby Rainey had a chance to steal the job last week and botched it with just 41 yards rushing and 2 fumbles against a weak Falcons defense. Martin has been practicing this week and should be the lead back in a matchup against a Steelers D that can be run on.
Khiry Robinson, @Cowboys (30%, 10) – His numbers weren’t that impressive (18-68) in his first game taking over for Mark Ingram as the Saints primary ball carrier, but I think they will be better this week against a suspect Dallas defense. There weren’t many red zone opportunities last week either, but that was just bad luck and I think it’s just a matter of time till Robinson has a big game. I’m starting Robinson in every league I own him, so clearly I think this is the week that he finds the end zone at least once.
Sleepers (14 teams+)
Jerick McKinnon, Falcons (2%, 6) – Matt Asiata is not good and it’s just a matter of time until the Vikings coaching staff gives up on him. McKinnon has way more upside than Asiata and with Cassel and Adrian Peterson potentially out for the year, eventually the Vikes will decide that 2014 is a development season and give time to players with upside like McKinnon.
Brandon Oliver, Jaguars (1%, 6) – The Chargers went from having a 3 RB attack (Woodhead, Matthews) to just Donald Brown. The Chargers coaching staff prefers to spread the carries around and I think they will give Oliver at least 10 touches this week. I don’t know much about Oliver’s skill-set but sometimes opportunity is more important than talent, especially when that opportunity is against the Jags.