Week 7 Spread: How to Play the Line


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Three I Like:

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts:

So far this season the Colts have defeated the Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, and Texans (three division opponents), of which only the Ravens have a winning record. On the other hand, against legitimate contenders, the Colts are having trouble winning games as they’ve already lost to Denver (4-1) and Philadelphia (5-1), both 2013 playoff teams. With the Bengals (3-1-1) coming to town this week, Indianapolis will again struggle to secure a victory against a top opponent. I find this to be a very generous line this week, take Cincinnati.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 @ St. Louis Rams

The Rams have yet to win a game at home this season and after a 17-31 defeat against the 49ers on Monday Night Football a week ago I don’t see their home record improving this week with the Seahawks coming to town. Aside from the Broncos game, all of the Seahawks’ victories have been decided by more than seven points and coming off a loss to Dallas, Seattle should be poised to get back on track in St. Louis. The Seahawks are a good bet at -6.5.

Houston Texans +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

In both games the Steelers were favored at home this year, the team failed to cover the spread. Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown may be the best running back-wide receiver combination in the league this season(second in the league in rushing yards and second in receiving yards, respectively), but Pittsburgh is simply too inconsistent and unreliable to be picked ATS this week. Houston, conversely, covered the spread on the road in Dallas and should be able to do the same in Pittsburgh on Monday night. Pick Houston this week.

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Three I Don’t Like:

New Orleans +2.5 @ Detroit:

The Saints road woes make Detroit a popular pick this week, but after a surprising loss to Buffalo two weeks ago, with Kyle Orton at quarterback no less, my confidence in the Lions at home ATS is fading. The Saints may be (0-3) outside of New Orleans this season but coming off a bye and with Mark Ingram ready to return the team could be in good position to come away with a win this week. It doesn’t hurt that Calvin Johnson will be out.

Kansas City +4.5 @ San Diego:

On the road thus far this season the Chiefs have beaten the spread in Denver, Miami, and San Francisco giving Kansas City the best record as road underdogs in the entire NFL. The Chargers on the other hand have been one of the best teams at home this season and are currently one of two teams undefeated at home ATS. The bottom line is the Chiefs are good on-the-road and the Chargers are good at home, making this a matchup to steer clear of this week.

NY Giants +5.5 @Dallas Cowboys

Currently on a five game winning streak, longest since 2007, the Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFL, making them another popular pick this week against the Giants. However, in the past three seasons only one game between the Giants and Cowboys has had a deficit of over seven points (Week 17, 2011) as these two teams, who know each other extremely well, typically take this rivalry very seriously. Even without Victor Cruz and Rashad Jennings, I expect the Giants to put up a good fight in Dallas this week.