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Last week: 15-11-3, Season: 121-84-7 (59%)
Week 8 Recap: I hope nobody took my advice and benched Ben Roethlisberger (+32)! I was a little off on that call and missed on Brandin Cooks (+14), Mark Ingram (+18), and Martellus Bennett (+8) as well. It wasn’t a great week, but I was over .500 again and was right on benching Cam Newton (-12), Boobie Dixon (-8), Kendall Wright (-6), and Percy Harvin (-4).
My start’em picks were better with Keenan Allen (+12), Denard Robinson (+11), Allen Robinson (+8), Andre Holmes (+7) and Jay Cutler (+7) all significantly out performing their projected totals. I did miss on Michael Floyd (-11), Jerick McKinnon (-6), Shane Vereen (-6), and Tony Romo (-5), but for the most part my start’em picks were solid (9-5).
A few other fantasy notes from week 8 before I get to my start’em / sit’em picks:
– QB Ben Roethlisberger’s 6 TD, 522 yard performance in week 8 was awesome and the fact that he did it against the Colts who were allowing the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs is equally impressive, but don’t expect Roethlisberger to be a top 5 QB moving forward. He’s definitely ownable, but he’s the same guy that averaged 12 fantasy points in weeks 5 & 6 against the Browns and Jags so don’t get carried away and start Ben over an established top 5 QB like Rivers or Wilson. Roethlisberger has a tough match-up this week against the Ravens so don’t expect a repeat of last week.
– RB/WR Denard Robinson had his second consecutive 100 yard game and should have locked down the starting RB gig in Jacksonville moving forward. If he’s still on your waiver wire, make a claim, if not try and trade for him now before his value increases. In Yahoo leagues he qualifies as a WR which gives you the option of starting four RBs and a significant advantage if you have other decent RB options.
– Saints RB Mark Ingram looked like the real deal on Sunday night vs GB (24, 171, 1). The Packers run defense isn’t good but Ingram looked better than I have ever seen him and if the Saints are going to give him 20+ carries every week, Ingram could be a fantasy beast the rest of the season.
– Cardinals WR Michael Floyd was one of last week’s biggest busts with 0 catches and just 4 targets in a fantasy-freindly match-up vs the Eagles. The Eagles don’t have anything close to a lock-down corner who could have shut Floyd down, it seemed to be just a matter of QB Carson Palmer preferring Larry Fitzgerald and rookie John Brown. I own Floyd in multiple leagues and thought this was going to be his breakout season, but I’m nervous about starting him next week. His value is too low to deal him right now, but I would keep Floyd on the bench until he gets back in Palmer’s good graces.
– WR Sammy Watkins is on the brink of fantasy stardom. He is averaging 140 yards per game over the last two and came a yard away from scoring his 4th TD over the last two weeks. His price tag is going to be high, but it is probably going to keep going up so now is your best chance to get him for the playoff stretch.
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If you missed my week 1 post with the pick guidelines and qualifications, here is the link . Short version is that only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues are eligible for the Start’em picks and only players over 10% for the Sit’em picks. I’m using Yahoo’s default scoring projections (w .5 PPR) as my projection guidelines. The Start’em picks are players I think will outplay their projected line, while the Sit’em picks are players I think will fall short of their Yahoo projected total.
If you have questions about specific players, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section and I will get back to you before this weekends games. Good luck in your fantasy match-ups this week and go Bears!
Start’em
QB
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Russell Wilson, OAK (68%, 16) – Over the last four games, Wilson has two games with over 40 fantasy points and two under 15. Which Wilson shows up this week? I’m predicting somewhere in the middle with around 20-25 fantasy points at home against a suspect Raiders defense.
Colin Kaepernick, STL (30%, 17) – The Rams defense has looked a little better lately, but it’s still allowing the 5th most fantasy points to QBs and coming out of a bye week I think the Niners offense will put up 30+ this week.
Ryan Tannehill, SD (22%, 17) – Since almost being benched four weeks ago, Tannehill has played pretty well and is 3rd among all QBs in rushing yards. The Chargers can be thrown on (15th in fantasy points allowed to QBs) and I think Tannehill puts up another 20+ fantasy line.
RB
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Lamar Miller, SD (72%, 13) – The Dolphins have done a pretty amazing job of rebuilding their O-line in just 1 season and Miller taken advantage of it with an average of 92 total yards over the last three games and a TD per game over the last four. Miller is the Dolphins clear-cut #1 RB and is getting close to 20 touches per game (18.5) and the red zone work over the last three weeks. He’s a solid RB2 moving forward.
Brandon Oliver, @MIA (68%, 16) – He struggled on the ground last week with only 36 rushing yards, but had 7 catches and is still the only healthy RB in San Diego. Miami’s run defense is tough, but Oliver should get 20+ carries for the 4th week in a row and put up a solid 15+ fantasy points.
Ronnie Hillman, NE (66%, 15) – Has over 100 total yards in all three starts so far and should be able to do the same against a Patriots run defense that is in the bottom 5 of the league in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
Mark Ingram, @CAR (50%, 12) – His performance last week (24, 172, 1) was one of the best I have seen from him since he was at Alabama. Ingram has looked good all year and if the Saints keep giving him 20+ carries per week he could be a top 5 RB the second half of the season. He’s a solid RB2 and a must start moving forward.
Denard Robinson, @CIN (43%, 8) – Like everyone else I thought Robinson’s 100+ yards in week 7 might be a fluke, but he did it again against a solid Miami defense last week (108 rushing yards). Robinson has started two games and has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in both, he is a must start until he proves otherwise.
Bobby Rainey, @CLE (10%, 5) – Doug Martin is technically hurt, but Rainey has been the better RB all season anyway with an average yards per carry of almost two full yards more than Martin. Rookie Charles Sims could be back in week 9 and might steal some carries from Rainey, but he just started practicing this week and I’m guessing it will take Sims another week or two before he’s fully ramped up. That gives Rainey some time to lock down the starting job. Don’t be surprised if he pulls it off.