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Last week: 24-11-1, Season: 165-103-10 (62%)
Week 10 Recap: I hope you took my Sit’em advice last week because I was almost perfect (14-2-1). I was wrong on just slo-mo Stephen Jackson (+5) and Cecil Shorts (+3), but nailed the rest of my picks. Michael Floyd (-11), Rueben Randle (-7), Vernon Davis (-7), Boobie Dixon (-7), Larry Donnell (-6) and Marques Colston (-6) all significantly under-performed their expected prodcution. All four of my QB sits were correct, but at least Cam Newton staved off another single-digit performance with a couple of garbage time TDs.
My Start’em picks were inconsistent (10-9) but I had a few big hits like Jordan Matthews (+25), Mike Evans (+15), Mychal Rivera (+12), Mark Sanchez (+10), Denard Robinson (+9), Darren Sproles (+9) and Roddy White (+7). I finally recommended Ben Roethlisberger and of course he let me down (-4), I was WAY off on Jay Cutler (-7) and Justin Hunter (-7) just isn’t very good.
A few other fantasy notes from week 10 before I get to my Start’em / Sit’em picks:
– WR Michael Floyd is officially okay to drop in any format. He’s averaging just over 2 catches per game over the last 6 weeks! If that weren’t bad enough the Cards just lost their starting QB, Carson Palmer, for the season with a torn ACL.
– I have been pimping WR Jordan Matthews in both this and my waivers posts all season and he finally delivered the type of game he is capable of in the Eagles high-octane offense. Matthews is the all-time leading receiver in the SEC, so it’s not like he came out of nowhere. He looked like Sanchez’ #1 target last week and he could have a huge 2nd half.
– I covered RB C.J. Anderson in my waivers post earlier this week, but he gave a glimpse of what he could do as the Broncos lead back last week (26 fantasy points) and should have the job for at least the next two games. Anyone lining up next to Peyton Manning has value, but Anderson has good size (5’8, 224), speed (4.53), and hands. Anderson has the talent to put up huge numbers the next few weeks while Hillman is out.
– RB Tre Mason didn’t do much (81 total yards, 0 TDs) against a stout Cards run defense but with the Rams all but out of playoff contention, I think Mason will be the primary RB the rest of the season. With 15-20 carries per game and a few catches, Mason has the talent to be a beast in the 2nd half of the season
– QBs Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton are the 16th & 17th ranked QBs in standard fantasy leagues this year, yet both guys are routinely started in over 75% of leagues. Eli Manning and Ryan Tannehill have both scored more fantasy points this year, and Alex Smith has just 3 points less than Cam! If you are still in contention despite starting one of these two guys then the rest of your team must be pretty solid. If your league still allows trades, see if you can deal these guys for a less popular but more effective fantasy player like Romo, Flacco, or even Jay Cutler (still 9th ranked QB despite recent slump).
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If you missed my week 1 post with the pick guidelines and qualifications, here is the link . Short version is that only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues are eligible for the Start’em picks and only players over 10% for the Sit’em picks. I’m using Yahoo’s default scoring projections (w .5 PPR) as my projection guidelines. The Start’em picks are players I think will outplay their projected line, while the Sit’em picks are players I think will fall short of their Yahoo projected total.
If you have questions about specific players, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section and I will get back to you before this weekends games. Good luck in your fantasy match-ups this week and go Bears!
Start’em
QB
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Ben Roethlisberger, @TEN (55%, 19) – I’m bound to get it right one of these weeks. Seriously though, the Titans suck and the Steelers have plenty of weapons.
Jay Cutler, MIN (46%, 17) – I’m not giving up on Cutler yet. He’s been bad lately, but only has two games this year with under 20 fantasy points and is still the 9th ranked QB overall. Cutler and the Bears should be fired up in this one after two embarrassing losses and they have a pretty easy match-up vs the Vikings, who have given up the 5th most points to QBs.
Philip Rivers, OAK (43%, 17) – Coming off a bye week, the Chargers have had two weeks to figure out what’s wrong with their offense and to prepare for a mediocre Raiders defense. I think they snap their 3 game losing streak with an easy home win and a couple of Rivers TDs this week.
Mark Sanchez @GB (25%, 14) – The Packers offense has been unstoppable but their defense isn’t as good as the Bears made them look last week. Sanchez and the Eagles should be able to move the ball at will which should lead to one of the highest scoring games of the season. Keep an eye on the weather in this one though, if there is a blizzard or extreme conditions then consider benching Sanchez.
RB
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Ahmad Bradshaw, NE (68%, 12) – The Pats pass defense has been awesome this year, but they have given up the 4th most points to fantasy RBs. Bradshaw should be fresh after the bye week and if this game is close (should be), Bradshaw will be on the field.
Jeremy Hill, @NO (62%, 13) – Don’t let last week’s mediocre fantasy line sway your opinion on Hill, the Bengals were down early and stopped running the ball. Gio Bernard is out again this week, so get Hill in your lineup. The kid is a poor man’s Marshawn Lynch and should be able to bulldoze the Saints mediocre run D.
Terrance West, HOU (45%, 10) – Browns HC Mike Pettine won’t commit to West as the starter, but did admit that West has earned the job. West led the team in carries last week by a wide margin (26 to 12) and rushing yards (94 to 41). The Browns invested a 3rd round pick in West this year and he makes considerably less money than Ben Tate who has a $3.7M cap hit next year. The Browns are going to give West a chance to lock down the job for next year, but will be quick to pull West if he can’t. There is some risk involved, but I think West will be able to move the chains against a Texans D that is giving up the 10th most fantasy points to RBs.
Joique Bell, @AZ (42%, 10) – The match-up is terrible, but Bell should get around 20 touches this week including a handful of catches since Reggie Bush is out. I don’t think it will be pretty, but with that many touches I think Bell will give you around 15 fantasy points.
C.J. Anderson, @STL (42%, 10) – There was talk in Broncos camp this preseason that Anderson was the best RB on the team, but he hasn’t gotten a chance to prove it until last week. On only 17 touches, Anderson racked up 167 yards and a TD. With Ronnie Hillman projected to be out 2-3 weeks, Anderson has a shot and the talent to hold down the job through the end of the season.
Tre Mason, DEN (24%, 9) – Speaking of talent, Mason is the Rams best RB and it’s not even close. It looks like the Rams are starting to figure it out as Mason has led the team in carries the last two weeks. The matchup for Mason isn’t a great one this week, but if he gets 15+ touches he has the talent to crack double-digit fantasy points.
Ryan Matthews, OAK (44%, 10) – I wanted to avoid this one, but it was the question I got more than all others combined this week. From what I hear, Matthews could have played last week (bye) so this doesn’t seem to be a case of someone rushing back from injury. The Raiders run defense has given up the 3rd most points to fantasy RBs and this could be a good game for Matthews to get back on track. The Chargers haven’t been able to run the ball the last two weeks, so they need Matthews back and productive.