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Last week: 24-10-4, Season: 189-113-14 (63%)
Week 11 Recap: I’m on a bit of a roll the last two weeks (70%), mainly due to recommending you start most of this year’s rookie WRs. Coming into the draft it was thought to be one of the strongest WR groups ever and they haven’t disappointed. My Start’em picks were hit or miss (11-8-3), but I hit big on Mike Evans (+23), Kelvin Benjamin (+15), Jordan Matthews (+12), Odell Beckham (+6), and Jeremy Hill (+5). Sticking with my guy Jay Cutler (+11) panned out as did my C.J Anderson (+8) and Joique Bell (+6) picks. I missed bad on Ben Roethlisberger (-6) for the fourth week in a row, also Terrance West (-9), Pierre Garcon (-9) and all 3 of my tight ends recommendations (Kelce, Rivera, Rudolph).
My Sit’em picks were rock solid for the 2nd week in a row (13-2-1) and am now (27-4-3) over the last two weeks. So I’m either due for a big let down or you should start paying attention. My best Sit’em picks were Matt Stafford (-12), Ben Tate (-10), T-Rich (always, -10), DMC (-10), James Jones (-10), and Mohammed Sanu (-8). The only picks I was wrong on were Michael Crabtree (+3) and Michael Floyd (+9) which really pisses me off since Floyd has been so bad the last 5 weeks that I just dropped him in all of my leagues.
A few other fantasy notes from week 11 before I get to my Start’em / Sit’em picks:
– Patriots RB Jonas Gray came out of nowhere to put up 49 fantasy points (199 yards, 4 TDs). Before you start thinking a star was born, please keep in mind that Pats HC Bill Belichick is evil and hates all things fantasy. The odds are about equal that Gray gets 30+ carries again or he never sees the field. The Pats did sign RB LaGarrette Blount today, so I would be wary about Gray’s fantasy impact the rest of the way. I already feel sorry for those owners who have Gray in their playoff lineup the week Belichick decides to give Blount or rookie James White 35+ carries while Gray watches from the sidelines.
-After spending the alst two weeks telling everyone that would listen to drop WR Michael Floyd since he averaged 1.7 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks, he scored 2 TDs in the first quarter on Sunday. I’m not eating my words on this one, those were Floyd’s only two catches of the game. He has dropped behind Larry Fitz and rookie John Brown on the target list and the Cards don’t throw the ball enough to support 3 fantasy WRs.
– I recommended RB C.J. Anderson to anyone willing to pay attention and after Montee Ball re-injured his groin Sunday, Anderson came in and was of Denver’s only effective weapon in a surprising loss to the Rams. Anderson finished the game with over 100 total yards for the 2nd week in a row (115) and 8 catches. I’d be shocked if his production doesn’t continue in the best possible offense for his skill-set. He has a legit shot at being next in Denver’s line of out-of-nowhere successful RBs.
– The rookie WRs are legit. The Bucs combo of QB Josh McCown and WR Mike Evans, looks a lot like the McCown to Jeffrey connection from last season. WR Kelvin Benjamin is Can Newton’s primary target, WR Jordan Matthews is making a push for WR1 in Philly, WR Odell Beckham is already the Giants most reliable option in the passing game, WR Jarvis Landry just keeps carving out a bigger role in the Phins offense and WR John Brown and WR Martavis Bryant are their teams best deep threats already. Own as many of the rookie WRs as you can.
– Browns WR Josh Gordon is officially back from suspension and has been practicing with the Browns this week. Don’t forget that Gordon broke the NFL record for most consecutive 200 yards receiving games last year and he should be in all lineups this week and every week moving forward.
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- 5 Khalil Herbert over/unders in for Chicago Bears 2022
If you missed my week 1 post with the pick guidelines and qualifications, here is the link . Short version is that only players started in less than 75% of Yahoo leagues are eligible for the Start’em picks and only players over 10% for the Sit’em picks. I’m using Yahoo’s default scoring projections (w .5 PPR) as my projection guidelines. The Start’em picks are players I think will outplay their projected line, while the Sit’em picks are players I think will fall short of their Yahoo projected total.
If you have questions about specific players, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section and I will get back to you before this weekends games. Good luck in your fantasy match-ups this week and go Bears!
Start’em
QB
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Matt Ryan, CLE (71%, 15) – The Browns have a solid pass D, but Ryan has played well of late and is much better at home. In Atlanta Ryan has a 9/2 TD/INT ratio and has averaged over 300 yards per game this season. I don’t think he’s going to be great, but is a safe bet for 20-25 fantasy points this week.
Jay Cutler, Bucs (63%, 19) – He has some problems as a real-life QB, but is averaging over 2 TD passes per start, gives you some sneaky rushing yards, and is the 8th ranked fantasy QB in standard leagues. More importantly he’s playing the Bucs who have given up the 3rd most passing yards per game this season.
Russell Wilson, AZ (44%, 16) – It’s a must win game for the Seahawks and I have a hunch that Russell Wilson is going to step up and play a solid game. The Cards blitz more than any other defense in the league, but Wilson is adept at avoiding the rush and making big plays on the move. I think he surpasses 20 fantasy points in this one.
Tony Romo, @NYG (43%, 17) – After a week to rest his ailing back, Romo should be healthy. In their first meeting, Romo threw for 3 TDs (1 INT) and only 6 incompletions all game (17-23).