Fantasy Football Week 15: Start’em / Sit’em

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Last week: 17-17-4, Season: 260-156-29 (62%)

Week 14 Recap: My apologies for a brutal week of Start’em pics (8-12). I just barely managed to keep my .500 or above streak going for the season by sticking most of the Sit’em pics (9-5) but it was a close one. I hope I didn’t cost anyone their playoff livelihood!

My teams did very well last week managing to stay alive in 5 of 6 playoff battles. Russell Wilson (+17) lead the way in over half of them, but I got key contributions from Andre Williams (+16), Mike Evans (+8), and Travis Kelce (+8) as well. They balanced out a few of my misses who unfortunately were in plenty of my lineups, like Keenan Allen (-10), Tre Mason (-8), Mark Ingram (-8), and Kenny Stills (-6).

As I mentioned earlier I had much better luck with my Sit’em picks. I caught some flak for benching Alfred Morris (-12), Reggie Wayne (-12), and Doug Martin (-9), but they were all pretty worthless this week. It was lucky for me that Russell Wilson played well because I benched Cam Newton (+21) and Jay Cutler (+10) for him in multiple leagues. The rest of my Sit’em picks were on target with even my misses only missing their projected by a couple of fantasy points.

Here are a few other fantasy notes from week 14 before I get to this week’s picks:

– I know QB Drew Brees was awful last week in a favorable match-up, but before you even consider benching him this week, please look at the NFL leaders in QB rating this season:

1.) Aaron Rodgers (119)

2.) Tony Romo (108.8)

3.) Peyton Manning (105.7)

4.) QB playing the Bears (103.4)

5.) Ben Roethlisberger (103.0).

I wish that was a joke.

– Broncos RB C.J. Anderson has over 20 fantasy points in three consecutive games, but that streak could be in jeopardy due to an injured ankle. Anderson was held out of practice on Wednesday and downgraded to questionable. If Anderson can’t go, back-up RB Juwan Thompson will get a shot. Thompson looked good last week with 77 yards on just 4 carries and is said to be the pass blocker of all the Bronco RBs.

– During the Colts / Browns game, the announcers couldn’t stop talking about CB Joe Haden and the job he was doing on Colts WR TY Hilton. Haden held Hilton to just 2 catches for 13 yards in the first half. Hilton finished the game with 10 catches for 150 yards and 2 TDs. He should have had a 3rd TD, but let the ball bounce off his hands in the end zone. My point? Hilton is really good and has established himself as a must-start every week regardless of match-up.

– Rookie WR Odell Beckham is averaging over 11 targets per game the last six weeks and is catching 73% of those targets. Beckham is a legit WR1 in fantasy and an excellent keeper option for dynasty leagues.

Start’em

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Matthew Stafford, MIN (71%, 15) – He’s on a hot streak with 355 yards and a 5 TD / 0 INT ratio over the last two games. He’s sunk plenty of fantasy teams in the playoffs the last two seasons, but with the Vikings this week and the Bears up next… Stafford might be the #1 fantasy QB over the next two weeks.

Tony Romo, @PHI (52%, 16) – He struggled two weeks ago against the Eagles, but he was playing with a back injury at the time. Romo looked healthy last week with an almost perfect game against the Bears (138 QB rating, 3 TD / 0 INT). Romo is about as healthy as he’s been all year and I think he’s going to have 20+ against a defense that has given up the 4th most fantasy points to QBs.

Jay Cutler, NO (51%, 18) – He’s a much better fantasy QB than he is in real life. Despite his well documented turnover problem, Cutler has only put up less than 20 fantasy points 3 times this season in 13 starts. The Saints pass defense just got picked apart (at home) by Cam Newton last week and I can see Cutler doing the same.

Philip Rivers, DEN (48%, 16) – The Broncos have given up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year and the Chargers are playing for their playoff lives this week. I have a feeling this is going to be an old-school AFC West shoot-out with Rivers putting up 3+ TDs.

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Joique Bell, MIN (63%, 12) – Has become the Lions clear-cut #1 RB even with Reggie Bush healthy. Bell is a better runner between the tackles, better in pass pro, and he is a good enough receiver out of the backfield to give Stafford a reliable safety-valve.

Jeremy Hill, @CLE (57%, 10) – The Browns have a strong pass defense, but can be run on inside. That is Hill’s strength and I think he’ll get more carries than Gio Bernard this week.

Lamar Miller, @NE (52%, 10) – With Ryan Tannehill struggling, cold weather in Foxboro, and a tough Pats pass defense… I could see Miller getting close to 20 touches as the primary weapon in the Phins offense this week.

LeGarrette Blount, MIA (40%, 12) – The Pats & Dolphins both have top 5 pass defenses, but are mediocre against the run. I could see this being a grind-it-out-on-the-ground type game with both Blount and Miller having solid fantasy lines.

Daniel Herron, HOU (39%, 11) – The Texans have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing RBs and Herron has already passed T-Rich as the Colts primary RB. Herron has taken over the Ahmad Bradshaw role for the Colts and should continue to put up useful fantasy lines.

Chris Ivory, @TEN (29%, 9) – The Jets have averaged over 40 carries per game the last two weeks and that should continue against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Chris Johnson could be a good play here too in a revenge game. I think both RBs will put up 10+ fantasy points.

Latavius Murray, @KC (21%, 9) – The Chiefs D is pretty solid overall, but they have struggled to stop the run the last few weeks. They gave up 100 yards to some guy named Kerwinn Williams last week. Murray is coming off of a 23 carry game last week and appears to be the workhorse in Oakland. This could be a huge fantasy week for Murray.

Start’em

Schedule