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With the 2015 NFL season less than 3 months away, it’s time to start doing prep work for your fantasy football draft. Over the next few weeks I will be breaking down every position with a primer, rankings, sleepers, busts, and rookies.
I’ll discuss some QB draft strategies in more detail in the primer, but it’s a fairly common strategy to wait on QBs until the mid-to-late rounds due to the slim difference in production from most of the QBs outside of the top 3 or 4. I almost always go with that strategy, but if you miss badly on your late round QB, there isn’t going to be much available on the waiver wire.
I’m going to try and help you avoid taking the wrong QB with a breakdown of the QBs that I think are most likely to be busts this season. By “bust” I don’t mean that they aren’t worth owning, just that they are ranked higher than they should be and I don’t think they will meet the projections that some fantasy sites expect. I’ve outlined a few players below who are going for far above where they should based on rankings and average auction cost.
ALSO FEATURED ON BGO: Quarterback Sleepers
I’ll be using the Yahoo standard auction league data for any reference to rankings, projections, etc. If you don’t like auctions, then you are missing out on a far superior format.
Quarterback Busts
* Just to clarify, “Bust” doesn’t mean they aren’t worth drafting or being your starting QB, just that they are overvalued in Yahoo’s preseason rankings and projections. I know it’s redundant mentioning it again, but every year I get at least one comment about how “Player X isn’t a bust, is way better than Jay Cutler, and I’m a dumb a**hole”.
Drew Brees, Saints (Ranking=5, Avg cost=$20) – If you didn’t read the note above… I’m not saying Brees won’t be valuable this season, just that he won’t be the 5th rated QB at the end of the season. The Saints have been talking about being a more balanced offense the last few seasons, but I think this is the year that they finally do it. They got rid of Brees’ primary target (TE Jimmy Graham) and best deep threat (WR Kenny Stills) and spent significant money on two running backs (Mark Ingram & CJ Spiller).
Brees also averaged his lowest yards per attempt last season since 2009 (7.51) and is 36 years old, pretty close to the age where most QBs begin their statistical decline (37). I am a huge Brees fan, but the loss of two of his most dangerous weapons, his advanced age, and an offensive scheme that wants to run the ball more all point to Brees dropping out of the top five fantasy QBs in 2015.