2015 Fantasy Football: Quarterback Primer
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
3.) PPR Impact: If you play in a league that awards points (or half points) for receptions, quality WRs can put up similar points as QBs and you get to start as many as 3-4 of them depending on your format. In a full point PPR league there were more WRs that scored 200+ fantasy points than there were QBs. In a half-point PPR league there were only 3 more QBs than WRs that broke the 200 fantasy point barrier. In a PPR league when multiple WRs outscore all but the top 4-5 QBs, it makes even less sense to use a high pick on a quarterback instead of securing an elite WR or RB. When you can select a QB late in the draft that averages just 2-3 points less than the top option, why would you pass on an elite WR/RB who has a shot of out scoring even the top QBs?
4.) There is only one sure thing at QB: Payten Manning is 39 years old, has a chronic neck injury, and had a dead arm the 2nd half of last year. Drew Brees is 36, lost his best two receivers and is helming an offense that wants to run the ball. Tom Brady is 37 and may miss the first four games of the season. Russell Wilson has yet to throw more than 26 TD passes in a season. Outside of Aaron Rodgers, there is no sure thing among the top QBs. I will stomach an argument for Rodgers in the early rounds because he is by himself in the top QB tier this season, but taking any other QB before a top RB/WR doesn’t make much sense to me.
Summary
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Position scarcity. opportunity cost, PPR impact, and the lack of sure things at QB are the underlying tenets to my preference to wait on the QB position. There are a lot of good fantasy QBs and you only need one of them. Most years there are roughly 15-17 QBs who end up averaging 15+ fantasy points per game or more. For example Jay Cutler was the 14 best fantasy QB last year and averaged 17 fantasy points per game. He went for $1-$2 (11th round) in most auction drafts. Peyton Manning was the 4th best fantasy QB and averaged just three more points per game (20.2) but cost $30 more in auction leagues or a 2nd round pick.
Go down a little farther in the QB ranks and Matthew Stafford finished 17th overall at the position with an average of 16 fantasy points per game. The difference between the 4th ranked QB and 17th was just four fantasy points per game and roughly $30 from your auction budget. Or if you are a caveman and still use snake drafts, Manning was a 2nd round pick and Cutler/Stafford went somewhere in the 10th/11th rounds. Compare that to the difference in quality of a 2nd round RB/WR (Megatron, Julio Jones, Arian Foster) versus what is available in the 10/11th at the positons (Rashad Jennings, Brandon LaFell, DMC) and it makes little sense to draft a QB early.
At the end of the day, you can get a solid QB anywhere in the first 10-12 rounds or for less than $5 in an auction draft but there is a shortage of quality RB/WRs and you need to strike within the first 4-5 rounds to get one of them. Unless you think Aaron Rodgers is going to break fantasy records this year, it doesn’t make any sense to draft a QB until your RB/WR positions are locked up.
Next: Who are the RB Sleepers in Fantasy 2015?