Chicago Bears: Day Two QB Targets
Brad Kaaya, Miami (6’4 | 210 | 4.82) – If Mahomes is too risky of a quarterback prospect for you, then Kaaya might be your guy. He’s basically the opposite of Mahomes in a lot of ways, which I’ll get to below.
Kaaya was actually the better prospect coming out of high school and looked like a potential number one overall pick after winning Miami’s starting gig as a true freshman. He put up impressive numbers (3,198 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INT) as a freshman and improved his stats in each of the next two seasons.
His numbers are even more impressive when you consider that he was running for his life for most of his three seasons with the Canes behind bad offensive lines. Kaaya’s three years of starting experience in an offense with pro-style reads is rare in this year’s draft class and gives him a legitimate chance to contribute early in his NFL career.
While Kaaya mostly lined up in a shotgun formation, he does have experience taking snaps under center, commanding a huddle, running play-action, and reading defenses pre-snap. He’s one of the most NFL-ready quarterbacks in the draft, which is a significant edge for teams looking for a QB to play right away (like the Bears).
Kaaya has plenty of other traits to like as well, including consistent footwork and mechanics, a quick and fundamentally sound release, poise in the pocket, the ability to read defenses and react accordingly, and a high football IQ. He also uses his eyes well to fool defensive backs, throws a nice red zone fade, and consistently makes the right decision with the ball, throwing it away when nothing is there. Kaaya only threw 12 picks total over his last two seasons as a starter.
Physically, Kaaya has ideal length for a quarterback but needs to add weight to his thin frame. His arm strength is about average for an NFL quarterback (Matt Barkley-esque). He can make all the NFL throws, with good zip on short-to-intermediate throws but a tendency to float deep balls. Kaaya maneuvers well in the pocket, but lacks the foot speed to escape outside of the pocket or do any damage on the ground.
When Kaaya is in rhythm he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in this class, throwing darts all over the field, making the right decisions, and throwing with touch and anticipation. Though when Kaaya is pressured, the wheels start to fall off. He can’t escape college-level pass rushers and once he’s out of his comfort zone Kaaya hasn’t shown the ability to improvise and make things happen consistently enough.
Kaaya also has the bad habit of short-arming passes to avoid big hits. While some quarterbacks can alter their mechanics and still throw a good ball (like Mahomes), Kaaya isn’t one of them. When his mechanics falter, both his arm strength and accuracy disappear.
The lack of that unique trait to make something out of broken plays could really hurt Kaaya’s draft stock. He looks like a guy that needs everything to go right in order to succeed, which doesn’t often happen at the NFL level. Kaaya definitely has some physical limitations as a prospect, but the potential is still there to be a starting quarterback at the next level.
He is among the best quarterbacks in this draft class when it comes to footwork and mechanics, he has actual experience running a pro-style offense, and has a better grasp of the mental aspects of the quarterback position than most prospects in this draft. Kaaya may end up with the dreaded “game manager” label at the next level and that might be accurate, but his floor is probably a solid backup QB.
Kaaya actually reminds me quite a bit of recent Bears QB Matt Barkley. When he has blocking in front of him and is in rhythm, he can make every throw and put the ball on the money. As soon as things start to break down though, Kaaya’s mechanics go to shit along with his accuracy.
Despite his issues with pressure, I think the talent is there for Kaaya to be more than a game-manager type backup. He has enough arm strength, smarts, and intangibles to be an Andy Dalton caliber starter in the NFL.
If Kaaya ends up on a team with a solid offense line, he has the talent, football IQ, and poise to step in as a rookie and be a productive NFL quarterback. On the other hand, if Kaaya ends up on a team with a leaky line and limited weapons at receiver, he will struggle and might bounce around the league for a few years (ala Matt Barkley).
Kaaya has the potential to be a successful starter in the league, but his issues dealing with pressure, his thin frame, and lack of elite arm strength could drop him to the third round or even the draft’s third day.