Mitchell Trubisky vs. DeShone Kizer: Incompletions

The only two rookie quarterbacks are starting against each other this week. How has Mitchell Trubisky stacked up against DeShone Kizer?

In a previous post, we looked at how Mitchell Trubisky and DeShone Kizer differed in their ability to handle pressure, and who deserved more blame for high sack rates. Now, we look at incompletions.

Just like sacks, these are revolving parts and none of this 100% the reason or blame. Still, the majority of the incompletions can be charged to about seven different reasons. Since Kizer has 139 more pass attempts than Trubisky, this will broken into percentages.

The seven main reasons for incompletions are drops, which would leave little blame to the quarterback. Over throws will include passes high and led too far, under throws will include passes short and thrown behind. Hit and tipped are passes where the accuracy was altered because of the pass rush, whether it be a deflection, hand on the arm or hit. Bad decisions are when the quarterback forced into coverage, stared down a receiver, or threw across his body in a low percentage situation. Throw aways are just that, no one is open, the pressure is coming, live to fight another down. And lastly, spikes, which do include Hail Mary’s.

Below you can see Trubisky

Against Kizer

Between looking at sacks and incompletions, it is clear neither team has wide receivers. Still, Kizer’s are doing him bad. The three areas to key in on are over throws, under throws, and bad decisions. This is where the blame is almost solely on the quarterback. That is 58% of the incompletions for Trubisky, and 56% for Kizer. Not a huge difference.

What is damning for Trubisky about that stat is what is asked to do of Deshone Kizer compared to what is asked to do of Mitchell Trubisky. Hue Jackson has DeShone Kizer go deep at least once per drive. In terms of intended air yards, Kizer ranks fifth in the NFL, behind DeShaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, and Russell Wilson. He throws the ball about 9.8 yards down the field on every pass. For Trubisky? 8.5, with Derek Carr and Matt Moore. The good news is that Mike Glennon bottoms out this list at 6.6.

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It makes sense that Kizer is inaccurate, especially with overthrows. These are difficult passes and leading the receiver is usually better than under throwing him. This is something that Trubisky will need to fix.

So while Kizer and Trubisky have not been far apart in sacks and incompletions, is interceptions the difference maker Trubisky needs to be a higher upside bet?

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